Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: RXRX) is ending 2025 with something investors in AI-driven biotech rarely get in the same month: fresh clinical momentum, a high-profile Wall Street upgrade, and renewed attention from Cathie Wood’s ARK funds—all playing out during a shortened Christmas Eve trading session.
As of December 24, 2025, RXRX stock is trading around $4.37, up modestly on the day, with a market capitalization near $2.12 billion.
That price level may look quiet at a glance—until you zoom out to the drivers behind the tape: REC-4881’s Phase 1b/2 TUPELO readout in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), J.P. Morgan’s upgrade, ARK’s accumulation, and Recursion’s continued push to prove it can turn “AI drug discovery” from a compelling story into repeatable clinical results.
RXRX stock price today: What’s happening on December 24, 2025
In Christmas Eve trading—when U.S. equities typically see thinner liquidity and earlier closes—Recursion shares have been moving within a relatively tight intraday range. At the time of the latest available quote, RXRX traded near $4.37, with an intraday range roughly $4.31 to $4.43, and intraday volume in the low single-digit millions.
Today’s market backdrop matters because December 24, 2025 is an early-close session: major U.S. exchanges shut at 1:00 p.m. ET. [1] That often amplifies the influence of headlines and positioning, especially for smaller and mid-cap names like RXRX.
The headline grabbing attention today: Cathie Wood’s ARK “doubling down” on RXRX
One of the most-circulated pieces of Recursion coverage today focuses on Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest continuing to add to Recursion, positioning RXRX as an “AI-biotech” bet at depressed price levels. [2]
Separate reporting on ARK’s recent trading also points to a meaningful RXRX share purchase (hundreds of thousands of shares) as part of a broader repositioning across ARK portfolios. [3]
Why the market cares: ARK flows don’t change drug trial outcomes, but they do change visibility and (sometimes) near-term demand for shares—especially when combined with a positive catalyst and a prominent bank upgrade (which RXRX also had this month).
The move that reset sentiment: J.P. Morgan’s upgrade and the December spike
RXRX’s most dramatic move in the past week came after J.P. Morgan upgraded Recursion to Overweight and raised its price target to $11—a call that helped ignite a sharp one-day rally in mid-December. [4]
The stock’s volatility around that event is visible in recent closes: RXRX jumped strongly on December 17, then saw giveback and choppy follow-through in the sessions that followed—classic behavior when a biotech name is repriced on potential rather than near-term revenue. [5]
The key takeaway isn’t the single-day surge. It’s what it signals: Wall Street is explicitly framing RXRX as a clinical story now, not just a platform story, with REC-4881 (and to a lesser extent REC-617) as focal points.
The core catalyst: REC-4881 TUPELO data in Familial Adenomatous Polyposis
Recursion’s most important fundamental update this month was the December 8, 2025 release of positive Phase 1b/2 results from the ongoing REC-4881 TUPELO trial in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP). [6]
Highlights reported by the company include:
- Rapid clinical activity: among evaluable patients on REC-4881 (4 mg QD), 75% showed reductions in total polyp burden, with a 43% median reduction after 12 weeks of treatment. [7]
- Durability after stopping therapy: at week 25 (after 12 weeks off therapy), 82% of evaluable patients maintained reductions, with a 53% median reduction from baseline. [8]
- Safety described as consistent with MEK1/2 inhibition, with no Grade ≥4 treatment-related adverse events reported in the update. [9]
- A regulatory roadmap: Recursion said it plans to engage the FDA in 1H26 to define a potential registration pathway and expand/optimize the study population and dosing schedule. [10]
For investors, this matters for a simple reason: clinical validation is the scarcest currency in AI-drug-discovery biotech. Recursion is explicitly positioning REC-4881 as a “full validation cycle” for its Recursion OS approach—from phenotypic insight to mechanistic confirmation to human data. [11]
Recursion’s business model: Platform milestones, partnerships, and pipeline shots on goal
Recursion isn’t valued like a single-asset biotech. A meaningful part of the bull case is that the company can monetize its platform via partners while advancing its internal pipeline.
In its third-quarter 2025 business update, Recursion reported:
- A $30 million milestone from Roche and Genentech tied to delivery of a whole-genome map of microglial immune cells (a neuroscience-focused “phenomap”). [12]
- Cumulative scale: the company stated it would have reached $500+ million in upfront and milestone payments across partnerships/collaborations. [13]
- Ongoing collaboration framing: Roche/Genentech and Sanofi are called out as major partners, with Recursion describing multi-program relationships and future milestone potential (as disclosed by the company). [14]
This partnership engine is a double-edged sword:
- It can provide non-dilutive (or at least less dilutive) capital and validation when milestones hit.
- But the timing of milestone recognition and collaboration revenue can be lumpy, and investors must still underwrite the internal pipeline for long-term upside.
Cash runway and spending: What Recursion reported in Q3 2025
Biotech investors love two numbers: cash and cash burn. Recursion’s Q3 2025 release gave the market plenty to chew on.
Key items disclosed:
- Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $667.1 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. [15]
- The company also disclosed approximately $785 million of cash and cash equivalents (unaudited) as of Oct. 9, 2025, after proceeds from an at-the-market (ATM) facility. [16]
- Recursion said this supports a runway through the end of 2027 assuming no additional financing, based on current operating plans. [17]
- Q3 financial dynamics: Q3 total revenue was $5.2 million (down year-over-year), R&D expense was $121.1 million, and net loss was $162.3 million for the quarter. [18]
Bottom line: Recursion is still very much in the “invest heavily now” phase. The company’s runway claims reduce near-term financing pressure—but dilution risk never fully disappears for clinical-stage companies, particularly if timelines slip or trials expand.
Leadership change: Najat Khan set to become CEO on January 1, 2026
Another material storyline for RXRX stock heading into 2026 is a planned leadership transition: Najat Khan is slated to become Chief Executive Officer and President effective January 1, 2026, while co-founder Chris Gibson transitions to Chairman of the Board. [19]
This is not a cosmetic reshuffle. For markets, CEO transitions often raise real questions:
- Will pipeline priorities shift (accelerate some programs, prune others)?
- Does capital allocation change (more partnering vs. more internal development)?
- How will management balance “platform ambition” with the demand for clinical proof points?
Given Recursion’s positioning at the intersection of biology, automation, and AI, execution and prioritization are not side issues—they are the story.
RXRX stock forecasts: What analyst price targets look like now
On December 24, 2025, the consensus view of RXRX is notably more constructive than the stock price might suggest—though the exact consensus varies by data provider (mostly because of differences in which analysts are counted and how recently targets were updated).
Here’s the range of prominent published aggregates:
- Zacks: average price target around $7.00, with a reported range roughly $3 to $11. [20]
- TipRanks: average price target around $7.75, with a reported high of $11 and low of $5, and a consensus rating described as Moderate Buy. [21]
- MarketBeat: consensus price target listed around $9.50, with a reported high of $11 and low of $6. [22]
- MarketScreener: average target around $7.00, high $11, low $3, with a consensus labeled Outperform. [23]
What to make of this spread:
- The upper end (around $11) aligns with the J.P. Morgan target widely cited in recent coverage. [24]
- The middle band ($7–$9.50) suggests analysts see meaningful upside if REC-4881 continues to hold up and the pipeline generates more proof.
- The low end ($3–$6) is the market reminding you this is still biotech: clinical, regulatory, and execution risk remain very real.
Recent corporate-market “mechanics” to know: the Tempus AI resale registration headline
One additional item that showed up in recent market coverage: Recursion disclosed it filed a prospectus supplement to register shares for resale tied to an arrangement with Tempus AI, according to reporting summarizing an SEC filing. [25]
This kind of headline can matter in the short term because it touches on share supply and investors’ sensitivity to dilution/overhang—especially after a volatile move higher.
What to watch next for Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock
Looking into early 2026, the RXRX narrative is likely to revolve around a handful of concrete milestones:
- Regulatory discussions and next steps for REC-4881
Recursion has guided to engagement with FDA in 1H26 around a potential registration pathway and planned expansion/optimization. [26] - Execution under new leadership
With the CEO transition effective January 1, 2026, investors will scrutinize whether Recursion becomes more clinically assertive, more partnership-driven, or both. [27] - Pipeline cadence beyond REC-4881
In the Q3 update, Recursion outlined multiple longer-dated pipeline milestones (including early data expectations for other programs) and emphasized continued partnered progress. [28] - Cash discipline vs. ambition
The runway guidance through 2027 is meaningful, but markets will keep pressure on quarterly burn and prioritization—especially if macro conditions tighten. [29]
The big picture: Why RXRX is still a “prove it” stock
On December 24, 2025, Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock sits at an interesting intersection:
- Bulls see a discounted AI-biotech platform with real clinical signal (REC-4881), large partnerships, and a cash runway that buys time. [30]
- Skeptics see a clinical-stage company with substantial operating losses where the platform promise must repeatedly translate into durable, registrational-quality outcomes—something the sector has struggled to do consistently.
If Recursion can keep turning machine-learning discovery into clinical proof points, RXRX may stop trading like an idea and start trading like a pipeline. That’s the transition the market is watching—and it’s why this stock keeps finding its way back into headlines even when the share price is far from its highs.
References
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