New York, June 1, 2026, 11:03 EDT
Redwire shares dropped in late-morning trade Monday after Jefferies downgraded its rating on the space and defense tech company. The call pulled back a fast move up in smaller space stocks.
Redwire shares fell 16.4% to $20.53 in recent trading after starting the session at $22.66. Volume topped 25.8 million shares. The space company’s market cap was around $4.0 billion.
Investors have driven up prices for space stocks lately, with attention on the coming SpaceX listing. But some analysts say the excitement may be getting out ahead of where fundamentals are. Jefferies dropped its rating to Hold from Buy. A Hold rating usually suggests an analyst thinks shares will move more or less with the market, not beat it.
Jefferies lifted its price target on Redwire to $24 from $13, but pointed to the stock’s valuation after strong year-to-date gains and a jump in its enterprise-value-to-sales multiple. The firm notes the multiple is now at 8.8 times revenue, up from 3.8 times at the start of the year.
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a note quoted by Barron’s: “While general excitement around space has driven the stock price move, we see limited near-term upside from here.” Barron’s said earlier Monday that Redwire had already jumped 163% in the last month before Jefferies issued its downgrade. Barron’s
Redwire wasn’t the only stock under pressure. Rocket Lab lost 13.7%. Intuitive Machines dropped 11.9%. AST SpaceMobile fell 8.5%. The Procure Space ETF, which follows space sector stocks, slid 7.2%.
Redwire’s latest numbers looked stronger than what the stock’s action shows. The company posted Q1 revenue of $97.0 million, up 57.9% from last year, and backlog hit a record $498.1 million. Backlog is work under contract that hasn’t been counted as revenue yet. Net loss grew to $76.5 million, with more than $44 million in non-recurring items included, and Redwire kept its 2026 revenue outlook at $450 million to $500 million.
Redwire is seeing “very strong demand,” CEO Peter Cannito said in the earnings release. Cannito noted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.92. That number, which measures new orders against revenue for the period, shows orders outpaced recognized sales.
The company is pushing further into defense drones, announcing a $15 million follow-on order on May 20 from the 1st Aviation Brigade, U.S. Army Aviation Center of Excellence, for Stalker uncrewed aerial systems. “Stalker was purpose built to meet multiple mission needs,” Steve Adlich, president of Redwire Defense Tech, said. Redwire Corporation
Redwire announced a day ago it secured a multi-year contract in the high eight figures from a NATO country, though the client wasn’t named. The deal is for Penguin Mk3 tactical drones. CEO Adlich called the program an example of Redwire’s efforts on “tactical UAS modernization for NATO allies.” Redwire Corporation
Good contract headlines might not help much if investors decide the space trade is pricey. Redwire still has a $350 million at-the-market offering lined up. An at-the-market program allows the company to sell shares in the open market gradually. Redwire warned in a filing that selling a lot of stock publicly, or the idea that it might, could hit the share price.
Right now, Monday’s drop seems more like a price reset than a new shock for the company. Redwire still has orders coming in. But after such a sharp run-up, the stock is now being priced on how much of its future is already in the share price.
