Rheinmetall AG (XETRA: RHM, also traded as RHMG.DE and RNMBY in the U.S.) is back in the spotlight on December 9, 2025, as German defence stocks rally and Berlin prepares to sign off on some of the largest military procurement packages in its modern history.
By early afternoon in Europe, Rheinmetall shares were trading around €1,640–1,645, up roughly 1–4% on the day, leaving the stock about 10% higher over the last five sessions and more than 160% higher year‑to‑date. [1]
At the same time, analysts’ 12‑month price targets mostly cluster around €2,200–2,300, implying roughly 40–45% upside if those projections are met. [2]
Below is a structured look at what is driving Rheinmetall AG stock today, how the fundamentals have evolved in 2025, and what current forecasts and risk assessments suggest for the years ahead.
1. Today’s move: Rheinmetall rallies on €52 billion German procurement wave
The immediate catalyst on December 9 is a Bloomberg‑reported plan for the German Bundestag’s budget committee to approve around €52 billion of defence procurement contracts in a single closed‑door session next week. [3]
According to coverage from Investing.com based on that report: [4]
- German defence names Rheinmetall, Renk and Hensoldt all climbed more than 4% in morning trading.
- The package reportedly includes:
- €22 billion for basic military gear and clothing
- €4.2 billion for Puma infantry fighting vehicles
- €3 billion for Arrow 3 air‑defence interceptor missiles
- €1.6 billion for surveillance satellites
Jefferies analysts highlighted Rheinmetall as one of the main winners, estimating that the Puma portion alone could represent roughly €2 billion of business for the company, with further upside from ammunition, vehicles and systems that are not yet fully detailed in the leaked breakdown. [5]
This wave of contracts fits squarely into Germany’s broader commitment under Chancellor Friedrich Merz to rebuild the Bundeswehr and substantially raise defence capabilities, backed by a multi‑year borrowing package that sets aside hundreds of billions of euros for defence between 2025 and 2029. [6]
2. Fresh contract: new tank ammunition order worth “several hundred million euros”
The procurement story does not start today. On December 8, 2025, Rheinmetall disclosed yet another significant order from the Bundeswehr:
- The German Army placed an additional call‑off for 120 mm tank ammunition under an existing framework agreement.
- The new tranche is described as being worth “several hundred million euros.” [7]
- The umbrella framework for 120 mm ammunition—primarily for Leopard 2 battle tanks—now totals around €4 billion and runs until 2030, allowing the Bundeswehr to order several hundred thousand rounds of combat and training ammunition. [8]
The order illustrates two key themes that keep turning up in analyst research:
- Structural re‑armament, not just a short‑term war trade – Germany and other European NATO members are rebuilding depleted ammunition stocks and expanding capacity after years of under‑investment. [9]
- Rheinmetall’s position in NATO supply chains – it is a leading global supplier of 120 mm tank rounds for the Leopard family of tanks and increasingly a preferred partner for European artillery and air‑defence programmes. [10]
3. Share price, momentum and technical picture
Market data from European exchanges and MarketScreener show Rheinmetall trading around: [11]
- ~€1,643–1,644 per share on December 9 (Tradegate/XETRA real‑time estimates)
- +1.3–1.4% on the day
- +10% over the last five trading days
- +~167% since January 1, 2025
According to a dpa‑AFX note, Rheinmetall’s share price has: [12]
- Rebounded about 18% from a recent low around €1,410 on December 1
- Now returned to its simple 200‑day moving average, often watched as a long‑term trend indicator
- Remains well below early‑October record highs, but still shows triple‑digit percentage gains for 2025
A separate technical analysis by StockInvest.us adds more colour: [13]
- Close on December 8: €1,585, up 3.63% on the day
- Short‑term trend: price has risen in 7 of the last 10 sessions, up ~9.8% over two weeks, with rising volume—interpreted as a constructive momentum signal.
- Volatility: average daily moves of around 3–3.5%, categorised as “high risk” short‑term.
- 3‑month model forecast: under its current trend model, StockInvest expects a potential ~22% decline over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between roughly €1,060 and €1,260.
- Rating: overall, the service labels RHM.DE as a “hold/accumulate” candidate rather than a clear buy or sell.
Taken together, the message is mixed: technicians see a volatile stock testing key support/resistance zones, while the fundamental story continues to pull in long‑only capital.
4. Fundamentals in 2025: record sales, record backlog – but negative cash flow
Rheinmetall’s own Q3 2025 report shows why many investors still treat the stock as a long‑term structural growth story. For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported: [14]
- Group sales: €7.5 billion, up 20% year‑on‑year
- Defence sales: up 28%, reflecting strong demand across vehicle, ammunition and electronic systems
- Operating result: €835 million, +18%, for an 11.1% operating margin at group level
- Defence operating result: €825 million, with a 13.6% margin
- Backlog (Rheinmetall “Backlog”):€64 billion, up sharply from about €52 billion a year earlier
Management confirmed its 2025 guidance, calling for: [15]
- Full‑year sales growth of 25–30% versus 2024 (€9.75 billion)
- An operating margin around 15.5% (slightly above the 15.2% delivered in 2024)
The major caveat is cash flow:
- Operating free cash flow for the first nine months came in at around –€813 million, down from +€99 million in the prior year period.
- Rheinmetall attributes this primarily to heavy capex, inventory build‑up and delayed order placements by the German government during the election and budget process. [16]
That cash‑flow profile is a recurring concern in independent analyses and is central to the “execution risk” debate around the stock.
5. Long‑term roadmap: a €50 billion defence “champion” by 2030?
Rheinmetall has laid out a very ambitious 2030 plan, which recent equity research and financial press have picked apart in detail:
- Recent strategic commentary and TS2.tech’s synthesis of management presentations highlight an ambition to reach around €50 billion in annual sales by 2030, with operating margins above 20%. [17]
- This would represent a roughly 5x increase versus 2024 sales, implying a sustained “super‑cycle” in European defence budgets and successful scaling of new factories and acquisitions. [18]
The company is already executing on that roadmap:
- CEO Armin Papperger says Rheinmetall is building or significantly expanding 13 plants across Europe, including new ammunition sites in Germany and the Baltics and facilities related to F‑35 fuselage production. [19]
- Rheinmetall is in the process of acquiring NVL (Lürssen’s naval division) to build a sizeable naval business, aiming to be present “on land, at sea, in the air and even in space.” [20]
In multiple interviews and statements, Papperger has described Rheinmetall as on its way to becoming a “global defence champion”, backed by a backlog that he expects could rise toward €120 billion by mid‑2026 if German orders flow as anticipated. [21]
6. Consensus forecasts: strong growth through 2026 and beyond
Analyst consensus data from several aggregators underlines just how bullish the Street remains on Rheinmetall’s medium‑term earnings power.
6.1 Price targets and ratings
From MarketScreener’s consolidated view: [22]
- 18 analysts cover the stock.
- The mean recommendation is “BUY.”
- The average target price is about €2,204 per share, compared with a last close around €1,585, implying ~39% upside.
A separate dataset from StocksGuide (aktien.guide) reports: [23]
- 26 analysts in total, of which:
- 21 (≈81%) rate Rheinmetall a “Buy”,
- 5 (≈19%) rate it “Hold”,
- 0 “Sell” ratings currently in the sample.
- Average price target:€2,277, implying around 43–44% upside versus a reference price of €1,585.
- Target range:
- High: ~€2,625 (≈+66% upside)
- Low: ~€1,788 (≈+13% upside)
Recent broker actions referenced in TS2.tech’s November coverage include: TechStock²+1
- J.P. Morgan reiterating a “Buy” with a €2,250 target
- Deutsche Bank lifting its target to €2,100
- Additional Buy ratings from Barclays and UBS in early December
Separately, a Morgan Stanley sector note on European defence—widely cited in market commentary—describes the region’s defence re‑rating as “just beginning” and highlights Rheinmetall as a top pick with potential upside of more than 50% from recent levels. [24]
6.2 Revenue, profit and EPS forecasts
StocksGuide’s compilation of analyst estimates gives a sense of how the Street expects Rheinmetall’s business to scale: [25]
- Revenue:
- 2024: ~€9.8 billion
- 2025: ~€12.7 billion (+30.5% vs 2024)
- 2026: ~€17.4 billion (+36.4%)
- Continued double‑digit growth is projected into the late 2020s.
- EBITDA:
- 2025 estimate: ~€2.5 billion, about 28% above the trailing twelve‑month figure.
- EBITDA margins are forecast to climb from ~18% in 2024 to ~20–22% by the second half of the decade.
- Net profit:
- 2025 consensus: ~€1.3 billion, up ~55% versus the last twelve months.
- 2026: ~€2.0 billion, implying another ~50% jump.
- Earnings per share (EPS):
- 2024: ~€15.36
- 2025: ~€28.36 (+85%)
- 2026: ~€42.53, then rising steadily through 2030.
In valuation terms, those estimates imply that the headline P/E ratio, currently very high on trailing earnings, compresses into the mid‑30s by 2026 and into the low‑teens by 2030 if earnings materialise as projected. [26]
7. Valuation and technical levels: premium price for premium growth
Several detailed breakdowns—including TS2.tech’s December 1 analysis—underscore that Rheinmetall trades at a premium valuation even after the recent pullback: TechStock²+1
- At prices around €1,450–1,600, Rheinmetall has recently traded on roughly:
- ~50x trailing EPS,
- Low‑40s P/E on 2025 estimates, dropping to around 20–24x 2026 EPS on current consensus.
- The company’s market capitalisation sits in the €70–85 billion range, depending on the intraday share price snapshot. [27]
Technical observers also flag important support and resistance zones that have been in play since the late‑November correction: TechStock²+1
- Key supports:
- Recent lows in the €1,430–1,440 band
- Deeper support clusters around €1,300–1,320
- Immediate resistance:
- A gap zone roughly between €1,490 and €1,510
- The 200‑day moving average near €1,550, which Rheinmetall has now retested
- Major resistance:
- The €1,640–1,670 zone (where the stock is trading today)
- Above that, the prior record‑high region just below €2,000
These levels are descriptive, not predictive: they highlight where a lot of trading has occurred and where sentiment may flip from fear to greed or vice versa. The recent rebound from the low‑€1,400s back towards €1,600 is, in that framework, an “inflection test” for whether the longer‑term uptrend resumes or the market is still digesting the end of a war‑premium phase.
8. Risk landscape: politics, execution and cash conversion
Even the most bullish analyst notes emphasise that Rheinmetall is not a low‑risk stock. Frequent risk factors mentioned across company filings, Reuters reporting and independent analyses include: [28]
- Peace‑process and geopolitical risk
- Headlines about Ukraine peace frameworks have repeatedly triggered sharp sell‑offs in European defence stocks, including single‑day moves of –4% or worse for Rheinmetall during November.
- While many strategists argue that European rearmament is structurally anchored and would not simply vanish with a ceasefire, short‑term market sentiment remains highly sensitive.
- Domestic budget and procurement timing
- Rheinmetall’s Q3 numbers already show how delayed German budget decisions can push contract awards into later quarters, depressing order intake and free cash flow even as backlog grows.
- Future changes in German or EU fiscal policy could slow the pace of new commitments.
- Execution risk on an aggressive expansion plan
- The company is simultaneously building or converting dozens of production lines across 13 plants, ramping new ammunition capacity, expanding vehicle output and integrating naval assets.
- That scale introduces potential for cost overruns, delays and integration issues, any of which could weigh on margins and cash flow.
- Working‑capital and capex intensity
- The –€813 million operating free cash flow in the first nine months of 2025 reflects just how much capital Rheinmetall is pouring into inventories and new facilities.
- Persistently negative free cash flow, even in strong earnings years, could become a concern for investors focused on dividends or buybacks.
- Valuation and volatility
- After delivering decade‑long annualised returns above 40%, Rheinmetall has become high‑beta and headline‑driven, with double‑digit percentage swings occurring over a few days.
- A premium valuation means the stock is vulnerable to any disappointment in guidance, contract timing or margins.
- Supply‑chain and input‑cost risk
- Rheinmetall is investing heavily to secure European sources of critical materials (steel, propellants) and to remove bottlenecks in NATO ammunition supply.
- Any delays in these projects could temporarily constrain volumes or put pressure on profitability.
9. How to read Rheinmetall AG stock on December 9, 2025
Pulling the threads together, Rheinmetall AG on December 9 looks like:
- A core European defence pure‑play with:
- A €64 billion backlog
- Confirmed 25–30% sales growth and ~15.5% margin guidance for 2025
- A long‑term roadmap that envisions €50 billion in annual sales by 2030 with margins north of 20% if all goes well [29]
- A stock that has already re‑rated dramatically, up more than 160% year‑to‑date and trading at rich multiples on current‑year earnings. [30]
- A consensus analyst darling, with the vast majority of brokers rating it “Buy” and target prices implying around 40–45% upside from recent levels. [31]
- A highly volatile name whose short‑term path depends as much on headlines about Ukraine, German budgets and NATO strategy as on company‑specific news.
Today’s rally is therefore best seen not as a new story, but as the latest chapter in a longer narrative:
- Berlin is moving from promises to purchase orders, as illustrated by the planned €52 billion package and fresh tank‑ammunition contracts. [32]
- Investors are trying to reconcile that structural demand with the realities of execution risk, capital intensity and political uncertainty.
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. ng.investing.com, 4. ng.investing.com, 5. ng.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketscreener.com, 8. www.marketscreener.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.marketscreener.com, 11. www.marketscreener.com, 12. www.marketscreener.com, 13. stockinvest.us, 14. www.rheinmetall.com, 15. www.rheinmetall.com, 16. www.rheinmetall.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.rheinmetall.com, 19. www.rheinmetall.com, 20. www.rheinmetall.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. stocksguide.com, 24. www.bloomberg.com, 25. stocksguide.com, 26. stocksguide.com, 27. stockinvest.us, 28. www.rheinmetall.com, 29. www.rheinmetall.com, 30. www.marketscreener.com, 31. www.marketscreener.com, 32. ng.investing.com
