(SEO): Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) is in focus on Dec. 12, 2025 after a bullish Mizuho initiation. Here’s the latest news, forecasts, and what to watch next.
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is back in the spotlight on December 12, 2025, as Wall Street’s appetite for “pure-play” quantum computing exposure collides with a sector reality: massive long-term potential, inconsistent near-term revenue, and price swings that can feel more like momentum trading than a traditional fundamentals story.
As of Friday, Dec. 12, RGTI traded around $26.64, down slightly on the session after a volatile stretch, with intraday trading ranging roughly from $25.08 to $26.80 and volume above 21 million shares at the time of the latest update.
The immediate catalyst is clear: Mizuho initiated coverage of Rigetti and other quantum “pure plays” with a bullish stance—an event that’s fueling a new round of debate about what Rigetti is worth today versus what it could be worth if quantum advantage becomes commercially meaningful.
Below is a detailed breakdown of today’s news (12/12/2025), the most relevant forecasts and analyst targets, and the key fundamentals and risks that investors are weighing right now.
What’s moving Rigetti stock today: Mizuho initiates coverage with an “Outperform” and a $50 target
The headline driving today’s conversation is Mizuho’s fresh initiation:
- Rating: Outperform
- Price target:$50
- Implied upside: roughly high-double-digits to ~90%+, depending on the reference price used in the note and subsequent trading [1]
In a Reuters item summarizing the call, Mizuho’s $50 target implied about 91% upside to the stock’s last close at the time, and LSEG data cited in the same report put Rigetti’s median Street price target around $37 with an average rating of “buy” across eight analysts. [2]
A separate Investing.com write-up adds more color on Mizuho’s framework, saying the firm highlighted Rigetti’s financial position (cash/investments runway) and framed the $50 target as 11x an estimated FY2030 price-to-sales multiple, at a discount to its DCF. [3]
Meanwhile, broader coverage comparing quantum pure plays (Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave) has helped amplify the call, with commentary emphasizing that quantum is still early—but could become a foundational computing platform over the long run. [4]
The big picture: Quantum stocks are hot—and extremely volatile
Rigetti’s price action isn’t happening in isolation. Reuters recently described dramatic swings across a cluster of quantum names—sometimes dubbed a “Quantum 4”—as investors struggle to value companies that may not see consistent commercialization for years. [5]
Two key tensions are driving the volatility:
- Time horizon mismatch: Public markets price expectations quickly, while quantum hardware progress can be slow, expensive, and milestone-driven.
- Valuation vs. revenue: Even bulls acknowledge that near-term revenue can be inconsistent—yet market caps can be sizable relative to current sales. [6]
This is critical context for Rigetti specifically because its story is tightly linked to technical milestones (qubit count, error rates, reliability, packaging) and ecosystem adoption (hybrid quantum-classical workflows, cloud integration, and government-funded programs).
Rigetti fundamentals: cash-rich, revenue-light (Q3 2025)
Rigetti’s most recent detailed financial snapshot (Q3 2025) shows a company still firmly in “build mode”:
- Q3 2025 revenue:$1.9 million
- Operating loss:$20.5 million
- GAAP net loss:$201.0 million (influenced heavily by non-cash fair-value changes tied to financial instruments)
- Non-GAAP net loss:$10.7 million
- Cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments (as of Sept. 30, 2025):$558.9 million
- Cash/investments (as of Nov. 6, 2025): approximately $600 million, after warrant exercises generated proceeds [7]
Rigetti also disclosed that it received $46.5 million in proceeds from warrant exercises after quarter end, which is meaningful because it strengthens liquidity—but can also increase the share count (dilution is part of the story for many early-stage tech companies). [8]
Why this matters for the stock:
In today’s quantum market, liquidity isn’t just a “nice to have.” It’s strategic. A long R&D runway can help a company survive delays, pursue partnerships, and keep iterating hardware until the ecosystem is ready for broader adoption—an argument that appears in both company communications and bullish coverage. [9]
The technology roadmap: 100+ qubits by end of 2025, 1,000+ by 2027
Rigetti’s near-term credibility hinges on meeting a very specific set of technical milestones.
In its Q3 release, Rigetti reiterated it was on track to deliver:
- 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by end of 2025, targeting ~99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity
- 150+ qubit system by around end of 2026, targeting ~99.7% fidelity
- 1,000+ qubit system by around end of 2027, targeting ~99.8% fidelity [10]
This aligns with how Mizuho and other commentators frame Rigetti’s bull case: scale + error reduction are the gates that lead to practical quantum advantage. [11]
Quick explainer (for non-specialists):
A quantum computer isn’t just about “more qubits.” The real challenge is making qubits reliable enough (low error rates, stable calibration) so that computation remains meaningful as systems scale. That’s why fidelity targets show up in investor materials and analyst notes.
Commercial signals: on-premises Novera orders and government-backed projects
While the quantum sector is still early, Rigetti has pointed to concrete commercial and government-related developments that investors continue to treat as “validation events.”
1) $5.7M in purchase orders for two on-prem quantum systems (delivery expected in 1H 2026)
Rigetti announced purchase orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two 9‑qubit Novera on-premises systems, with delivery expected in the first half of 2026. [12]
The customers (unnamed in the release) were described as:
- an Asian technology manufacturing company using the system as a testbed to develop internal expertise and benchmark its own quantum technologies, and
- a California-based applied physics and AI startup using it for quantum hardware and error-correction research. [13]
2) $5.8M Air Force Research Laboratory contract focused on quantum networking
Rigetti also announced a three-year, $5.8 million AFRL contract, working with Dutch startup QphoX, aimed at advancing superconducting quantum networking—including microwave-to-optical conversion, a key step toward linking quantum nodes over optical infrastructure. [14]
3) NVQLink: positioning for hybrid quantum-classical computing with NVIDIA
Rigetti is participating in NVIDIA’s NVQLink initiative, which NVIDIA describes as an open system architecture designed to tightly couple quantum processors with GPU supercomputers, enabling low-latency, high-throughput control needed for error correction and hybrid applications. [15]
This matters because many researchers believe useful quantum computing will arrive through hybrid systems—quantum processors tightly integrated with classical compute (CPUs/GPUs), rather than “standalone” quantum boxes. [16]
4) Strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer (capital + manufacturing emphasis)
Earlier, Rigetti announced a strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer, stating both sides committed to invest more than $100 million each over five years, and that Quanta planned a $35 million investment in Rigetti, subject to regulatory clearance. [17]
For investors, Quanta is often read as a “manufacturing adult supervision” signal—because scaling quantum hardware is as much about engineering and production discipline as it is about physics breakthroughs.
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 12, 2025: price targets are wide—and that’s the point
The most important thing about RGTI forecasts right now is not any single number—it’s the spread.
Here’s what’s in the market as of this news cycle:
- Mizuho: $50 target (Outperform) [18]
- LSEG-compiled Street view (per Reuters summary): median target about $37, average rating “buy” [19]
- MarketBeat (8 analysts, methodology-based): average target around $28.50, with a high of $50 and a low of $12 [20]
And to put valuation in context, Rigetti’s market cap is being quoted around the high single-digit billions in multiple market data snapshots during this period (e.g., roughly $8.87B in commonly referenced feeds). [21]
What this dispersion tells you:
Analysts are effectively betting on different adoption curves. Some models assume quantum revenue meaningfully “hockey-sticks” later; others keep the ramp modest and penalize near-term uncertainty.
The near-term calendar: next earnings window (projected) and the milestone investors will watch
If you’re tracking what comes next for Rigetti stock, two “watch items” stand out:
- End-of-2025 tech milestone: delivery progress toward the 100+ qubit chiplet-based system and the targeted fidelity metrics. [22]
- Next earnings date (expected): some earnings calendars project Rigetti’s next report around March 4, 2026 (estimate-based and subject to change until the company confirms). [23]
Because quantum companies can move on narrative as much as on revenue, investor attention often spikes around:
- hardware milestone updates,
- government contract timing,
- partnership expansions (cloud, AI compute, national labs),
- and any revised guidance about system performance and delivery.
Key risks investors keep circling—especially after 2025’s quantum roller coaster
A realistic RGTI article today needs to emphasize the risk side as clearly as the upside.
1) Revenue can be lumpy, and commercialization timing remains uncertain
Rigetti’s revenue base is still small (millions per quarter), and many customers are research-focused rather than large-scale commercial deployments. [24]
2) The stock can trade on momentum faster than fundamentals can catch up
Reuters has highlighted how speculative the space can become, especially when “next big thing” narratives spread across retail and institutional channels simultaneously. [25]
3) Dependence on government funding and milestone execution
Government contracts can validate the tech, but they can also introduce timing risk (appropriations, procurement cycles, milestone gates). Even bullish research has flagged that near-term revenue may be inconsistent. [26]
4) Dilution and capital structure complexity
Rigetti’s liquidity is a strength, but the company has also benefited from warrant-related proceeds and has seen share count changes over time—important in any long-duration R&D story. [27]
5) Competition is not just other startups—it’s the giants
Rigetti competes in an ecosystem where IBM and Google are major reference points for superconducting approaches, and NVIDIA is pushing the “quantum + GPU supercomputing” integration layer that could shape how the whole market evolves. [28]
Bottom line on Dec. 12, 2025: Rigetti is trading the “quantum platform” thesis—with a new Wall Street tailwind
Today’s Rigetti story is a classic “frontier tech” setup:
- A fresh bullish initiation (Mizuho) adds oxygen to the narrative and provides a headline-grabbing target. [29]
- The company’s roadmap is ambitious but specific, giving the market concrete milestones to grade. [30]
- Partnerships and contracts (AFRL/QphoX, Novera orders, NVIDIA NVQLink, Quanta) help explain why the stock stays in the conversation. [31]
- But the valuation debate isn’t going away, and Reuters’ broader reporting underscores how hard it is to anchor prices to near-term financials in this sector. [32]
As always with early-stage quantum computing stocks, the question isn’t just “Is the tech real?”—it’s “How quickly does the tech turn into repeatable revenue, and how much volatility can investors stomach while waiting?”
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. finance.yahoo.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.barrons.com, 27. www.globenewswire.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. www.globenewswire.com, 31. www.globenewswire.com, 32. www.reuters.com
