Updated December 10, 2025
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is back in the spotlight today as one of the most volatile – and controversial – quantum computing stocks on Wall Street. After a year of spectacular gains, heavy insider selling, and a surge of fresh analyst and options activity, investors are trying to decide whether RGTI is still a smart way to bet on the quantum future or a bubble in the making.
Below is a structured, news-ready overview of Rigetti’s stock price, latest December 10 headlines, analyst forecasts, and fundamental backdrop as of Wednesday, December 10, 2025.
RGTI Stock Today: Price and Trading Snapshot
As of mid‑afternoon U.S. trading on December 10, 2025, Rigetti shares were changing hands around the high‑$20s per share, roughly $27–28. Real‑time feed shows a last trade near $27.37, with an intraday high of about $28.13 and low around $26.17. [1]
End‑of‑day historical data (which may slightly lag intraday quotes) shows that December 10 so far has seen:
- Open: ~$27.73
- High: ~$27.75
- Low: ~$26.16
- Recent close/print: ~$26.74 (down about 5% versus the prior session)
- Volume: ~23.6 million shares, far above typical pre‑rally volumes. [2]
From a longer‑term lens, Zacks data cited via Nasdaq notes that RGTI is up about 85% year‑to‑date, far ahead of its broader industry group’s roughly 10% gain. [3]
In other words: Rigetti is still in a powerful uptrend over 2025, but with violent daily swings that cut both ways.
What’s New on December 10, 2025? Key Headlines Driving RGTI
A cluster of fresh articles and research notes published today, December 10, 2025 is shaping sentiment around Rigetti and quantum stocks in general.
1. Simply Wall St: “Has the Bull Case Changed?”
Simply Wall St published an in‑depth note titled “Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Is Up 8.4% After Vertically Integrated Quantum Push – Has The Bull Case Changed?” on December 10. [4]
Key themes from that analysis:
- Investment narrative: To own Rigetti, investors must believe its vertically integrated quantum stack, multi‑chip architecture, and government/hyperscaler partnerships will eventually justify very rich valuation multiples despite years of expected losses. [5]
- Mixed signals:
- New positions from institutional investors and broadly positive Wall Street views support the bull case.
- But shrinking revenue, a roughly $201 million GAAP loss in Q3, extreme volatility and insider selling underscore how fragile that story is. [6]
- Valuation dispersion: Community “fair value” estimates on RGTI range from a few cents to around $40 per share, with many opinions well below recent trading levels, highlighting huge disagreement over what the stock is worth. [7]
Simply Wall St’s takeaway is that recent news amplifies existing risks and rewards rather than changing the core thesis. The article leans cautious on valuation but acknowledges the strategic potential if Rigetti executes.
2. Zacks / Nasdaq: The “Quantum Fab” Question and Valuation
Another major piece today, syndicated on Nasdaq from Zacks, asks:
“Can Rigetti’s Need for a Quantum Fab Reshape Its Long‑Term Moat?” [8]
Highlights:
- Fab capacity through 2027: Management said on the Q3 earnings call that its current 150mm Fremont fabrication facility should support its roadmap through 2027, but likely won’t be enough to reach >99.9% gate fidelities needed for commercial‑grade quantum systems. [9]
- Three potential paths:
- Partnering with existing superconducting‑oriented foundries
- Participating in government‑backed quantum manufacturing initiatives
- Building a more modern 200–300mm fab with better tooling and automation. [10]
- Moat framing: Zacks argues a future fab could actually strengthen Rigetti’s long‑term competitive moat if it delivers better yields and qubit quality than rivals that rely on external manufacturing. [11]
- Valuation snapshot:
- Shares are up ~84.9% YTD vs. ~9.9% for the industry.
- RGTI trades at a price‑to‑book ratio around 24.7, well above the peer average.
- It carries a Zacks Value Score of “F” and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
- Consensus 2025 earnings estimates imply an ~89% decline vs. 2024, reflecting continued heavy losses despite progress. [12]
This piece reinforces that RGTI is being treated as a high‑growth, high‑risk story stock, not a value play, and that capex and fab strategy will be central to its long‑term moat.
3. Zacks: “Down 10.1% Since Last Earnings Report – Can It Rebound?”
A shorter Zacks Equity Research note, echoed on Yahoo Finance and Finviz, points out that Rigetti shares have fallen about 10% since posting Q3 results on November 10, lagging the S&P 500 over the same period. [13]
The article frames the key question for traders today: after a multi‑hundred‑percent move earlier in 2025 and a subsequent pullback, is this just normal volatility or the start of a more serious reset?
4. Benzinga: Unusual Options Activity and “Whale” Interest
Benzinga’s piece “A Closer Look at Rigetti Computing’s Options Market Dynamics” zeroes in on options flow today. [14]
Main takeaways:
- Heavy options flow: Benzinga’s scanner flagged 13 “unusual” options trades in RGTI, described as out of the ordinary for the stock.
- Whales leaning bullish: About 69% of this activity was categorized as bullish, 30% bearish, with total notional of roughly $416k in puts and $155k in calls across those highlighted trades. [15]
- Strike ranges: Big trades targeted strike prices from $14 up to $85, reflecting bets on extreme outcomes in both directions. [16]
- Spot and technicals: Around publication (late morning ET), RGTI was trading near $26.84, down ~4.9% on the day, with neutral RSI and volume above 10 million shares. [17]
- Analyst snippets: Benzinga notes that recently:
- Benchmark maintained a Buy rating with a $40 target, and
- B. Riley reiterated a Neutral rating with a $35 target. [18]
This options‑market snapshot suggests institutional traders are actively positioning around RGTI, largely for upside but with substantial hedging.
5. TipRanks: Quantum Stocks Rebound – RGTI in the Pack
TipRanks’ feature “Quantum Stocks RGTI, IONQ, QUBT Rebound — Is Now the Time to Buy?” zooms out to the sector. [19]
Key points for Rigetti investors:
- Quantum names Rigetti, IonQ, and D‑Wave have all surged more than 15% over the last five trading days after a difficult October–November stretch. [20]
- The rebound is tied to improving technical milestones and renewed government interest in quantum as a strategic technology. [21]
- TipRanks emphasizes that RGTI depends heavily on U.S. government and defense contracts and cloud partnerships, making the stock sensitive to milestone slippage and contract timing. [22]
- The article concludes that quantum pure plays (including RGTI) remain highly volatile and dilution‑prone, but could see strong revenue growth if the technology delivers on its promise. [23]
6. Insider‑Selling Warning: $926 Million Across Quantum Peers
A widely shared column, syndicated via Finviz and authored by Sean Williams, carries the headline “IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D‑Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. Have Issued a $926 Million Warning to Wall Street for 2026.” [24]
From Rigetti’s perspective, the notable datapoints are:
- Over the last five years, insiders across the four major quantum pure‑plays have net‑sold about $926 million of stock, including roughly $54.1 million at Rigetti alone. [25]
- Rigetti has seen only one insider purchase of about $625,000 over that period, contrasted with heavy selling. [26]
- The article argues that insider selling, sky‑high price‑to‑sales multiples, and growing big‑tech competition make it likely that quantum stocks – including RGTI – could face sharp downside risk in 2026, even though Boston Consulting Group estimates quantum computing could unlock up to $850 billion in global economic value by 2040. [27]
This piece feeds into the “bubble risk” narrative around RGTI and its peers.
Analyst Ratings and RGTI Stock Forecasts
Street Price Targets
Different data providers show slightly different consensus targets, but all agree that Wall Street coverage has become much more active around Rigetti:
- MarketBeat:
- 7 analysts covering RGTI
- Average 12‑month price target: ~$25.43
- Range:$12 (low) to $40 (high)
- Based on the quoted last price of ~$26.92 at the time of that snapshot, MarketBeat calculates a ~5–6% downside to the average target. [28]
- StockAnalysis:
- 5 analysts tracked
- Consensus rating:“Strong Buy”
- Average target:$24, with a range from $12 to $40
- Implies about 11% downside from the referenced market price when that forecast was calculated. [29]
- Motley Fool / AOL summary:
- Recent coverage notes that seven analysts following Rigetti have a median target around $40 per share, well above today’s high‑$20s price. [30]
- Yahoo Finance:
- Lists a 1‑year target estimate around $40.50, suggesting double‑digit upside from the mid‑$20s, though methodologies and analyst sets differ by platform. [31]
Taken together, traditional analyst targets cluster between the mid‑$20s and about $40, with a few outliers at $12 on the downside and $40 on the upside. There is no consensus that the stock is cheap, but many analysts are still modeling meaningful growth in the second half of the decade.
Quant and Algorithmic Price Predictions
A number of quantitative and AI‑driven sites also publish model‑based forecasts for RGTI. These should be treated as speculative and highly uncertain, but they provide a window into how some algorithms see the risk–reward.
- CoinCodex:
- Predicts a tiny move for “tomorrow” (to about $27.09, essentially flat) but expects the price could dip toward $24.23 by December 13, a roughly 14% downside over a few days. [32]
- Intellectia.ai:
- As of December 7, 2025, their pattern‑matching model projected a –3.55% move over the next month, based on high correlation between RGTI and another stock (NWL) during the training window. [33]
- PandaForecast:
- For December 12, 2025, the site shows a target price around $33.65, with implied volatility of around 20%, suggesting both substantial upside and downside are plausible in that very short time frame. [34]
These services implicitly tell the same story: short‑term movements in RGTI are extremely hard to predict, and even the models that share numerical targets stress wide uncertainty bands.
Fundamentals: Revenue, Losses and Cash Runway
Despite the buzzy share price action, Rigetti remains an early‑stage, loss‑making company with modest revenue.
Q3 2025 Results
In its Q3 2025 earnings release, Rigetti reported: [35]
- Revenue: about $1.9 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025
- Operating loss: about $20.5 million
- GAAP net loss:~$201.0 million, largely driven by non‑cash items like changes in warrant and earn‑out liabilities
- Non‑GAAP net loss:$10.7 million, or about $0.03 per share
- Cash, cash equivalents and available‑for‑sale investments (as of Sept. 30): about $558.9 million
- Cash including warrant exercises through early November: roughly $600 million
A follow‑up Yahoo / Zacks note emphasizes that revenue declined around 18% year‑over‑year while net loss widened massively to ~$200.97 million from $14.8 million, underscoring the scale of non‑cash accounting charges. [36]
Q2 2025: New Processor and More Cash
Earlier, in Q2 2025, Rigetti posted: [37]
- Revenue: about $1.8 million
- Net loss: approximately $39.7 million
- Launch of the 36‑qubit Cepheus‑1‑36Q multi‑chip quantum computer, targeting roughly 99.5% two‑qubit gate fidelity
- Cash and investments: around $571.6 million at quarter‑end
Taken together, these quarters show a company with sub‑$10 million annualized revenue but a cash pile in the high hundreds of millions, designed to fund R&D and roadmap milestones for several years.
Technology and Roadmap: Toward 1,000+ Qubits
Rigetti’s technology roadmap is central to its story – and a big reason why some analysts still see upside despite extreme valuation.
From the Q3 release and subsequent coverage: [38]
- End of 2025: Rigetti aims to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based quantum system with a targeted 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity.
- By ~end of 2026: Targeting a 150+ qubit system with roughly 99.7% two‑qubit fidelity.
- By ~end of 2027: Aspirations for a 1,000+ qubit system with ~99.8% median two‑qubit fidelity.
On the commercial side, Rigetti has:
- Secured ~$5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9‑qubit Novera™ systems from an Asian tech manufacturer and a California applied physics/AI start‑up, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2026. [39]
- Won a $5.8 million, three‑year contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), in collaboration with QphoX, to advance superconducting quantum networking by converting microwave qubit signals into optical photons for long‑distance networking. [40]
- Announced collaborations with Montana State University (MSU) and India’s C‑DAC, and plans to open an Italian subsidiary, in part to tap European quantum funding. [41]
- Integrated with NVIDIA’s NVQLink platform to explore hybrid AI‑quantum workloads, strengthening its position in AI‑quantum integration. [42]
Separately, an April 2025 strategic deal saw Quanta Computer invest about $35 million into Rigetti at roughly $11.59 per share, linking Rigetti’s technology to a major hardware manufacturing partner. [43]
For bulls, this roadmap plus cash balance supports the idea that Rigetti can survive the long R&D slog to potential quantum advantage. For bears, the same roadmap highlights ongoing cash burn with uncertain commercial payoff.
Volatility, Insider Selling and Sentiment Swings
CEO and Insider Activity
Recent Yahoo Finance pieces have highlighted sharp sell‑offs tied to insider moves:
- One story notes that Rigetti shares dropped around 40% in a single month after CEO Subodh Kulkarni sold his entire personal position at about $12 per share, leaving him with zero direct holdings. [44]
- Another article describes this as an “$11 million warning” to Wall Street, pointing out that shares had previously gained more than 2,000% over 12 months before rolling over. [45]
The broader insider‑selling analysis from Motley Fool / Finviz (the $926 million warning) shows Rigetti insiders have been net sellers to the tune of roughly $54 million over five years, with almost no offsetting purchases. [46]
While insider selling can reflect tax planning or diversification, the lack of sustained buying interest from insiders is one of the biggest red flags cited by skeptics.
Boom, Bust, and Rebound
Recent coverage paints a classic boom‑and‑bust pattern:
- Yahoo Finance reported Rigetti “rocketed” around 15% in a single session earlier this month as quantum stocks rallied. [47]
- Other pieces note the stock has fallen sharply at times despite being up several‑hundred percent over 12 months, mirroring the violent repricing across quantum names. [48]
- Motley Fool’s “Where Will Rigetti Computing Stock Be in 5 Years?” frames 2025–2030 as a make‑or‑break period where quantum will either move toward mainstream adoption or disappoint investors who extrapolated early hype. [49]
All of this reinforces one core reality: RGTI is not a slow‑and‑steady compounder; it’s a high‑volatility speculation on a frontier technology.
Risk Factors Investors Are Focused On
Across today’s research and recent commentary, a few recurring risk themes emerge:
- Extreme Valuation vs. Tiny Revenue
- Single‑digit millions in quarterly revenue against a market cap that has, at times, implied hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. [50]
- Continuous Losses and Cash Burn
- GAAP net loss of about $201 million in Q3 alone, even if largely non‑cash. [51]
- Insider Selling and Lack of Insider Buying
- Nearly $54 million in net insider sales over five years at Rigetti, with only one sizable insider purchase on record. [52]
- Competition from Big Tech and Other Quantum Modalities
- Giants like IBM, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others are building their own quantum stacks, which could erode any first‑mover advantage of small pure‑plays like Rigetti. [53]
- Execution Risk on Roadmap and Fab Strategy
- The need for a more advanced fab beyond 2027 introduces capex and partnership risk, even if it could become a moat if done well. [54]
- Regulatory and Funding Dependence
- Heavy reliance on U.S. government R&D and defense contracts means policy shifts or missed milestones could hit revenue and credibility. [55]
Why Some Investors Still Like Rigetti
Despite those risks, several arguments support the bullish side:
- Large potential market: Boston Consulting Group estimates quantum computing could generate up to $850 billion in economic value by 2040, leaving plenty of room for multiple winners. [56]
- Technical progress: Rigetti is shipping real systems (like its 36‑qubit Cepheus and 9‑qubit Novera devices) and publishing a clear roadmap toward 100, 150 and 1,000+ qubit systems with improving fidelities. [57]
- Strategic partnerships: Deals with Quanta Computer, AFRL/QphoX, MSU, C‑DAC, and support for NVIDIA NVQLink give it a network of partners across manufacturing, defense, academia and AI. [58]
- Strong balance sheet (for now): With around $600 million in cash and investments as of early November, Rigetti appears funded for several years of R&D if spending is managed carefully. [59]
- Analyst interest: Multiple firms still rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and some median/average price targets imply upside versus today’s mid‑$20s share price, especially around the $35–40 mark. [60]
What Today’s Set‑Up Means for Different Investors
Nothing here is personalized financial advice, but based on the December 10, 2025 data:
- Short‑term traders are likely to focus on:
- The unusual options activity flagged by Benzinga
- Heavy volume and intraday volatility between ~$26 and $28
- The possibility of sharp moves around any new quantum or government‑funding headlines. [61]
- Growth / speculative investors may see RGTI as:
- A way to gain leveraged exposure to the quantum computing theme
- But with binary‑like risk, where execution missteps or sentiment shifts could trigger very large drawdowns, especially if insider selling persists. [62]
- Value‑oriented or risk‑averse investors may look at:
- The F‑grade value score, high price‑to‑book, and continued losses
- Insider behavior and competition from deep‑pocketed tech giants
- And conclude that the risk/reward is too skewed to the downside at current prices. [63]
Ultimately, as multiple commentators stress, RGTI is a high‑risk, high‑reward speculation on a still‑emerging technology, not a traditional earnings‑driven stock. Anyone considering it needs to be comfortable with:
- Extreme volatility
- The real possibility of significant capital loss
- A long time horizon and ongoing uncertainty around commercialization and competition
Quick FAQs About Rigetti Stock (As of December 10, 2025)
Is Rigetti (RGTI) profitable?
No. Rigetti reported a Q3 2025 GAAP net loss of about $201 million and a non‑GAAP net loss of $10.7 million, on $1.9 million in quarterly revenue. [64]
How much cash does Rigetti have?
As of September 30, 2025, Rigetti held about $559 million in cash and investments, rising to roughly $600 million after warrant exercises in early November. [65]
What are analysts’ price targets for RGTI?
Depending on the data provider, average 12‑month targets range from the mid‑$20s to around $40, with individual estimates as low as $12 and as high as $40. [66]
Why is RGTI so volatile?
Because the company is small, unprofitable, highly dependent on future technical milestones and government contracts, and has a relatively concentrated shareholder base with active insider selling and speculative trading interest. [67]
Is Rigetti a good buy now?
That depends entirely on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio goals. Current public research ranges from strongly bullish (betting on quantum’s long‑term potential) to deeply skeptical (warning of a bubble and heavy insider selling). None of these views guarantees future performance.
References
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