New York — Dec. 26, 2025, 11:13 p.m. ET — Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) closed the post‑Christmas session sharply lower in a market that was otherwise drifting near record levels in thin, year‑end trading. [1]
RGTI ended Friday around $22.38, down roughly 8.6% on the day after trading between about $24.51 and $22.34, with volume above 28 million shares—a big number for a stock that has become one of Wall Street’s most hot‑button “pure‑play” quantum computing names. [2]
This article breaks down the latest Rigetti‑specific developments, the current analyst landscape and forecasts, and—because U.S. exchanges are closed right now—what investors should keep in mind heading into the next regular session on Monday, Dec. 29 (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). [3]
Why Rigetti (RGTI) fell while the broader market stayed quiet
Friday’s drop came during a low‑volume, post‑holiday session where major indexes barely moved. The S&P 500 slipped to 6,929.94, the Dow dipped to 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq eased to 23,593.10, according to AP—typical “between Christmas and New Year’s” tape action. [4]
In that kind of market, high‑beta, story‑driven stocks can swing harder than the averages, especially when the shareholder base is dominated by shorter‑horizon traders and options activity. That dynamic has been a defining feature of “Quantum 4” names—including Rigetti—throughout 2025. [5]
Reuters captured the valuation challenge bluntly earlier this quarter: investors are “grappling” with how to price pure‑play quantum companies, creating outsized volatility around the theme. Sylvia Jablonski (Defiance ETFs) described the moment as feeling like science fiction becoming a real technological possibility—while Steve Sosnick (Interactive Brokers) questioned whether traders are getting carried away with the excitement. [6]
The key takeaway for RGTI investors: day‑to‑day price action often reflects risk appetite and positioning as much as fundamentals, particularly during thin year‑end sessions. [7]
The catalysts keeping Rigetti in the spotlight
Even after Friday’s pullback, Rigetti remains at the center of a broader re‑rating (and debate) around quantum computing commercialization. Several concrete company developments have been driving the narrative:
1) Commercial purchase orders: a signal beyond R&D?
On Sept. 30, 2025, Rigetti announced purchase orders totaling about $5.7 million for two 9‑qubit Novera™ quantum computing systems, with delivery expected in the first half of 2026. Rigetti said one buyer is an Asian technology manufacturer building internal quantum expertise, and the other is a California applied physics and AI startup using the system for hardware and error‑correction research. [8]
CEO Subodh Kulkarni framed the orders as evidence of growing demand for on‑premises systems as the industry matures. [9]
Why it matters for the stock: for a company often viewed through the lens of government R&D contracts, purchase orders like these can be interpreted as a step toward repeatable commercial revenue—even if the absolute dollars are still small compared with the market’s expectations. [10]
2) U.S. Air Force contract with QphoX: quantum networking angle
Rigetti also disclosed a three‑year, $5.8 million award from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) in collaboration with Dutch startup QphoX, focused on superconducting quantum networking. The project targets the “microwave‑to‑optical” conversion challenge that could allow quantum processors to connect over fiber—an ingredient often cited as necessary for scaling. [11]
For investors, this reinforces two points:
- Rigetti continues to win U.S. defense‑adjacent work (which can help validate technical capabilities). [12]
- The company remains meaningfully exposed to government funding cycles, which some analysts have flagged as a near‑term risk. [13]
3) Technology roadmap: multi‑chip systems and the “100+ qubit” milestone
Rigetti has been pushing a chiplet‑style approach. In mid‑2025, the company discussed a 36‑qubit multi‑chip system built from four 9‑qubit chiplets and said it planned a launch on Aug. 15, 2025, while remaining on track to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based system targeting 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity before the end of 2025. [14]
That roadmap matters because, in quantum, scale and error rates are the make‑or‑break metrics that determine whether a platform moves from research novelty to commercially useful workloads. [15]
4) Quanta collaboration: manufacturing and supply chain ambitions—with a near-term calendar twist
One of the most consequential strategic moves this year was Rigetti’s collaboration agreement with Quanta Computer Inc. (server manufacturing heavyweight). In an SEC filing describing the arrangement, Rigetti outlined a framework where Quanta can develop “covered components” (control systems, dilution refrigerators, cables, etc.) to support Rigetti’s quantum products, while Rigetti retains rights to its core QPU technology. [16]
Two details investors should not miss:
- The agreement includes investment commitments: Rigetti said it would invest at least $250 million in quantum computing over five years, and Quanta also agreed to invest at least $250 million (toward personnel and capex supporting the roadmap). [17]
- There is a calendar‑driven condition: the filing states either party may terminate if no statement of work is entered by Dec. 31, 2025, and it also discusses conditions around a related securities purchase agreement and BIS clearance timing by the same date. [18]
With year‑end days away, that “Dec. 31” language is the kind of detail that can suddenly become market‑moving if investors interpret updates (or silence) as meaningful. [19]
Rigetti’s financial reality: big cash, small revenue, continuing losses
One reason RGTI can trade like a “concept stock” is the gap between the size of the opportunity investors are pricing and the current income statement.
From Rigetti’s Form 10‑Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025:
- Cash and cash equivalents were about $26.1 million. [20]
- Available‑for‑sale investments totaled roughly $532.8 million (short‑term + long‑term). [21]
- Combined, that’s approximately $558.9 million of cash and investments on the balance sheet. [22]
- Total revenue was about $1.947 million for the quarter (and $5.220 million for the first nine months of 2025). [23]
- Government entities accounted for about 92.6% of revenue in the quarter (and 91.4% for the first nine months). [24]
- Loss from operations was about $20.549 million in Q3 (and $62.063 million for the first nine months). [25]
Rigetti also noted it believes existing balances of cash, cash equivalents, and available‑for‑sale investments should be sufficient for anticipated operating cash needs for the next 12 months (based on its plan and assumptions). [26]
A critical nuance for newer investors: reported net income/loss for companies like Rigetti can be heavily influenced by non‑cash fair value changes tied to warrants and related instruments. In the same 10‑Q, Rigetti reported a large change in the fair value of derivative warrant liabilities during the period—an accounting line that has been a recurring volatility driver in results. [27]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: “Buy” consensus, wide dispersion
Rigetti’s 2025 rally attracted more sell‑side attention across the quantum sector, and several firms initiated coverage this month, according to Investors.com’s reporting on the broader space. [28]
That influx shows up clearly in aggregated target data:
- MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” based on nine analyst ratings, with an average 12‑month price target of $31.22 (high $50, low $15) at the time of its snapshot. [29]
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus rating of “Buy” with an average target around $29.38 (high $50, low $12), underscoring just how wide the range is. [30]
That dispersion is the story: analysts who are constructive on Rigetti tend to focus on the company’s cash runway and roadmap execution, while more cautious voices emphasize valuation, funding timing, and commercialization uncertainty.
A few of the most recent target and rating datapoints (per StockAnalysis’ compilation):
- Wedbush initiated coverage with a Buy and a $35 target (Dec. 17, 2025). [31]
- Jefferies initiated coverage with a Hold and a $30 target (Dec. 16, 2025). [32]
- Mizuho initiated coverage with a Buy and a $50 target (Dec. 11, 2025). [33]
Meanwhile, Barron’s has highlighted how quickly rating stances can change as the stock moves. In November, Barron’s reported that B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis downgraded Rigetti to Neutral while raising his price target (citing “premium valuation” and concerns that government shutdowns could affect revenue timing). [34]
And in an October Barron’s piece focused on the rally, Benchmark analyst David Williams was cited as lifting his target dramatically (to $50 from $20) while pointing to cash runway and execution progress. [35]
The “quantum stock” valuation debate: what experts are actually saying
If you’re trying to understand why RGTI can be down nearly 9% on an otherwise sleepy day, zoom out to how professionals describe the sector.
In Reuters’ November deep dive on quantum pure‑plays, several market veterans emphasized that valuation is currently more narrative‑driven than spreadsheet‑driven:
- Sylvia Jablonski, CIO of Defiance ETFs, described the sudden shift in investor perception as futuristic tech moving into “real technological possibility.” [36]
- Steve Sosnick, chief markets strategist at Interactive Brokers, raised the question of whether traders are paying too much for “a piece of the future.” [37]
- Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, described traders coalescing around a “Quantum 4” group of names. [38]
- Rick Bradt, a Neuberger Berman portfolio manager, summed up the tension: huge potential, but uncertainty on timing. [39]
This is the environment RGTI trades in: catalysts matter, but sentiment, liquidity, and the options market can matter just as much—especially near year‑end. [40]
Positioning check: short interest and insider activity
Two data points investors often monitor in volatile, retail‑active stocks are short interest and insider trading.
Short interest
MarketBeat reports that as of Dec. 15, 2025, Rigetti had about 41.25 million shares sold short, representing roughly 12.5% of the float, with a days‑to‑cover figure around 1.1. Yahoo’s key statistics show a similar short-share count and short‑percentage snapshot for the same settlement date. [41]
That doesn’t predict direction by itself, but it helps explain why RGTI can move fast: if sentiment shifts, positioning can amplify the swing in either direction.
Insider transactions
Yahoo Finance’s insider-transactions summary indicates there were multiple insider sale transactions totaling roughly $6.95 million between November and December 2025. [42]
Investors typically view insider sales with context (10b5‑1 plans, tax needs, diversification), but in a momentum‑driven name, the market sometimes treats the headline as a sentiment input.
If you’re holding (or watching) RGTI this weekend: what matters before Monday’s session
Because it’s after market hours and U.S. exchanges are closed until Monday’s opening bell, the most useful work for investors often isn’t reacting—it’s preparing.
Here are the key items to have on your radar before the next regular session (9:30 a.m. ET Monday). [43]
1) Year‑end liquidity and “Santa Claus rally” mechanics
The broad market is in the “Santa Claus rally” window (last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the next year), and Friday’s tape reflected thin post‑holiday liquidity. In that environment, sharp moves in speculative themes can be exaggerated. [44]
2) Any updates tied to the Quanta agreement’s year‑end language
Given the SEC‑disclosed termination language around Dec. 31, 2025, investors should pay attention to any filings or company statements that clarify progress on statements of work, approvals, or timelines. [45]
3) Government funding headlines and contract timing
Both Reuters and Barron’s have flagged how government funding timing (and political shutdown risks) can influence the revenue outlook for quantum names that rely heavily on government work. Rigetti’s own filings show government entities make up the vast majority of revenue today. [46]
4) The next technology milestone narrative
Rigetti has told investors it is working toward larger chiplet‑based systems and specific fidelity targets, and this roadmap is a core part of the bull case. Watch for progress updates that move beyond timelines into measurable performance disclosure. [47]
5) Analyst note flow and revisions
Given how recently multiple firms initiated coverage in December, there can be follow‑on notes, conference commentary, or target revisions that create Monday gaps—particularly in a stock that already trades with large daily ranges. [48]
Bottom line: Rigetti is trading as both a company and a theme
Rigetti Computing stock is not just reacting to quarterly revenue; it’s reacting to a bigger 2025 market story: investors trying to price a technology that could be transformative but is still early, still volatile, and still searching for durable commercial demand.
Right now, the company has a substantial cash-and-investments buffer (per its filings), a pipeline shaped heavily by government work, and a set of recent announcements—from purchase orders to defense contracts to strategic manufacturing partnerships—that bulls see as stepping stones toward commercialization. [49]
At the same time, Friday’s sharp drop is a reminder that in thin markets—especially during year‑end—RGTI can behave like a high‑octane sentiment vehicle. For investors, the practical playbook into Monday is to watch the news and filings, respect the stock’s volatility, and understand that analyst targets span a very wide range because the underlying valuation problem is still, in Reuters’ words, more “art than science.” [50]
References
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