London, Jan 24, 2026, 08:15 GMT — Market closed
- Rio Tinto shares closed Friday up, hovering near a recent 52-week high
- Following the miner’s latest production update, two broker notes shifted to a more positive stance
- Investors are eyeing Feb 5 for updates from Glencore talks and Feb 19 when annual results drop for new cues
Rio Tinto (RIO.L) ended Friday up 1.39%, closing at 65.76 pounds. The miner outperformed a weaker FTSE 100 and now sits roughly 1.5% shy of its 52-week high hit earlier this week. Trading volume reached 1.7 million shares, below the 50-day average, indicating buyers didn’t have to push aggressively to lift the stock. 1
London markets are closed for the weekend, leaving traders focused on a sharp deadline in the Glencore saga. By 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5, Rio faces a choice under the UK Takeover Code’s “put up or shut up” rule: either declare a firm intention to bid for Glencore or step aside. 2
Just behind that, Rio has its 2025 annual results set for Feb. 19. Investors will be watching for updates on costs, guidance, and capital returns. 3
Broker notes injected some energy late in the week. Erste Group bumped Rio from “hold” to “buy,” highlighting its return potential and income appeal. Analyst Hans Engel also noted that copper production in Mongolia is expected to make an “important contribution” to growth in 2026. 4
CLSA raised its price target on Rio’s Australian operations by A$1, now setting it at A$165, while maintaining an outperform rating. The broker expressed a preference for Rio over BHP when it comes to copper and aluminium exposure. It also highlighted the Feb. 5 Glencore deadline as a potential short-term catalyst. 5
Rio’s update earlier this week set the tone. In its Q4 operations review, the miner exceeded expectations for iron ore and copper output, with annual copper production hitting 883,000 tonnes thanks to a ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia. Analyst Glyn Lawcock at Barrenjoey called it “a solid quarter,” but pointed out weaker iron ore prices compared to BHP and flagged that delivering on promised cost cuts remains the next hurdle. 6
Iron ore continues to drive cash flow, making futures moves relevant even on equity market holidays. On Friday in China, Dalian iron ore futures wrapped up higher, with the May contract—the most active—closing at 795 yuan a tonne. 7
Copper has emerged as another key factor in the Rio narrative, with prices holding close to record levels. On Wednesday, the benchmark three-month copper contract on the LME stood at $12,796 a tonne, down slightly from its all-time peak of $13,407 reached the previous week. “Structural tightness continues to underpin prices,” said Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets. 8
This deal comes amid a broader consolidation trend as miners target copper expansion. Reuters reported earlier this week that Anglo American and Teck Resources are closing in on a $53 billion merger. Meanwhile, Rio is holding early discussions to acquire Glencore. 9
The next two weeks could still shake the stock. If Glencore issues a “no offer” statement or gets tangled with regulators leading to forced asset sales, the risk profile would shift sharply. On top of that, weaker iron ore prices would add pressure. Horizon Insights analysts flagged this month that global iron ore output might climb 2.5% in 2026—a supply boost that could weigh on prices if China’s steel demand falters. 10
Traders on Monday will be tracking if broker recommendations spark new buying, while keeping an eye on iron ore and copper futures in Asia for signs of resilience. Key dates remain set: Feb. 5 marks the deadline for Glencore’s takeover code, with Rio’s annual earnings and guidance update due on Feb. 19.
