London, July 13, 2026, 12:10 (BST)
Rio Tinto plc LON:RIO shares rose 0.5% in open London trading on Monday, but the harder test comes in its next operations update. Rio’s May 18 half-year consensus implies second-quarter Pilbara iron ore sales of about 84.1 million tonnes, 16.2% above the cyclone-hit first quarter. The stock was at 6,784 pence at 12:01 BST.
That is the key split for investors. The same forecast set implies 215,000 tonnes of second-quarter copper, down 6.1% from both the first quarter and a year earlier, shifting the immediate stock test toward rail-and-port recovery rather than copper growth. Rio’s consensus is an arithmetic average of analyst submissions collated independently by Visible Alpha, not company guidance.
| Operating marker | Q1 2026 actual | H1 consensus | Implied Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Q/Q | Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilbara iron ore sales, Mt | 72.4 | 156.5 | 84.1 | 79.9 | +16.2% | +5.3% |
| Copper, kt | 229 | 444 | 215 | 229 | -6.1% | -6.1% |
Implied Q2 equals the H1 consensus less the reported first-quarter figure. Percentage changes refer to the implied Q2 result.
The operating gap matters because mine output held up while shipping did not. Chief Executive Simon Trott said the Pilbara mines “performed strongly” while shipments were hit by two cyclones. Rio estimated the disruption cost about 8 million tonnes and said it could recover around half, while keeping its 2026 Pilbara sales guidance at 323 million to 338 million tonnes. The Q2 number is the first hard check on how much of that backlog moved through the network. Rio Tinto
London trading gave Rio some support, though not a company-specific breakout. Glencore PLC LON:GLEN and Anglo American plc LON:AAL also gained around noon, while the FTSE 100 slipped.
| London snapshot | Price or level | Day move |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto | 6,784p | +0.46% |
| Glencore | 514.0p | +0.69% |
| Anglo American | 3,635p | +0.39% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,484.34 | -0.12% |
Technical positioning remains soft. An LSE and FTSE Russell report dated Friday showed Rio down 4.48% over one week and 13.58% over four weeks, though still up 12.66% this year. Its relative strength index, or RSI — a momentum gauge running from zero to 100 — stood at 34.93, near the 30 level generally classed as oversold.
Run-rate calculations leave less room at the top of the range than the headline Q2 rebound might suggest.
| 2026 Pilbara case | Full-year target, Mt | Average needed in Q2-Q4, Mt/quarter | Average needed in Q3-Q4 if Q2 is 84.1 Mt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance low | 323.0 | 83.5 | 83.2 |
| Analyst consensus | 329.7 | 85.8 | 86.6 |
| Guidance high | 338.0 | 88.5 | 90.7 |
Calculations use reported Q1 sales, the May 18 consensus and Rio’s published guidance. Figures are rounded.
An 84.1 million-tonne quarter would keep the low end within reach, but it would not remove the pressure around the full-year consensus or the top of guidance. Every 1 million tonnes Rio misses that Q2 mark adds 0.5 million tonnes to the average required in each of the next two quarters. Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS expected a modest Pilbara shipment beat in a Monday preview carried by MT Newswires.
But the downside math steepens quickly. A Q2 result of 80 million tonnes would lift the H2 quarterly pace needed to reach the 329.7 million-tonne annual consensus to 88.7 million tonnes, while higher fuel costs could dilute the benefit of recovered shipments. Baden Moore, head of resources and energy research at CLSA Australia, called jet-fuel and diesel shortages the “key risk to operations” in the second half. Reuters
Rio is due to publish its Q2 operations review at 23:30 BST on Tuesday. Half-year results follow on July 29. The first threshold is roughly 84 million tonnes; the more durable signal will be whether management keeps the full-year range and shows the recovery pace can hold.
