LONDON, July 20, 2026, 10:04 BST
- Rio traded at 6,658 pence, down 1.0%, with London trading open.
- Midpoint Pilbara guidance requires 172.8 million tonnes of second-half sales.
- Brent touched above $90, renewing concern over diesel and freight costs.
Rio Tinto plc LON:RIO fell 1.0% to 6,658 pence by 09:55 BST. The London market was open.
The latest operations beat looked solid. Pilbara sales reached 85.3 million tonnes, 7% above last year. They also topped the 83.6 million-tonne Visible Alpha consensus estimate.
Yet first-half sales were 157.7 million tonnes. Full-year guidance stayed at 323 million to 338 million tonnes. The midpoint therefore needs 172.8 million tonnes during the second half.
| Pilbara sales case | 2026 target | Second half needed | Quarterly run-rate | Versus Q2 rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low end | 323.0 Mt | 165.3 Mt | 82.7 Mt | -3.1% |
| Midpoint | 330.5 Mt | 172.8 Mt | 86.4 Mt | +1.3% |
| High end | 338.0 Mt | 180.3 Mt | 90.2 Mt | +5.7% |
Calculations use Rio’s reported first-half sales and unchanged 2026 guidance.
That midpoint is 15.1 million tonnes above first-half sales. It demands a 9.6% half-on-half increase. Q2 was already Rio’s strongest shipment quarter since 2020.
Chief Executive Simon Trott said, “We are delivering growth as we drive performance across the group.” Copper-equivalent production rose 3% during the first half. riotinto.com
Pilbara production reached 162.3 million tonnes, up 6%. Rio called it the best first-half result since 2018. Q2 sales rose 18% from the cyclone-hit first quarter.
Mining shares fell broadly on Monday. Glencore plc LON:GLEN lost 1.2%. Anglo American plc LON:AAL fell 0.8%. Antofagasta plc LON:ANTO dropped 0.6%.
Commodity signals were mixed. Iron ore slipped 0.5%, while copper edged higher in early trade. That split offered Rio’s shares little support.
Fuel costs pose the clearer near-term pressure. Brent touched above $90, its highest level since June 11. The benchmark had surged 15.9% last week.
Rio said higher fuel costs were already raising expenses. It retained Pilbara cash-cost guidance of $23.50 to $25.00 per tonne. Diesel had added about 80 cents per tonne.
Copper offers some margin support. Q2 output fell 7% to 213,000 tonnes, narrowly missing consensus. Rio still cut copper cost guidance to 30–50 cents per pound. The previous range was 65–75 cents.
Rio reports half-year results on July 29. Those figures should show whether shipment gains are offsetting fuel and outage costs.
Risks remain two-sided. Faster Pilbara execution could lift sales toward the upper range. Longer Hormuz disruption could raise diesel and freight costs. Weak Chinese steel use or Kennecott outages would add pressure.
