New York, Feb 7, 2026, 02:50 EST — Market closed
- Rio Tinto’s U.S. shares jumped roughly 2.5% on Friday, after the miner said no to a deal with Glencore.
- The miner’s announcement sets off a six-month “no-bid” lockout, as required by UK takeover rules.
- Attention turns to Rio’s Feb. 19 annual results, with iron ore prices also in focus as China moves into its holiday lull.
Rio Tinto’s U.S. shares ended Friday up roughly 2.5% at $93.37, after the company confirmed it won’t move forward with a Glencore merger. That decision put to rest weeks of speculation swirling over the sector. 1
This decision is significant; traders had begun factoring in the possibility of a major industry shift—and the chance Rio would shell out big to make it happen. With Rio stepping back, one overhang disappears. Still, the lingering issue for investors remains: can returns improve without a headline-grabbing transaction.
On Feb. 5, Rio dropped plans for a merger or any other kind of business tie-up with Glencore, saying talks failed to yield a deal it thought would benefit its shareholders. The company said it reviewed the proposal using the “disciplined lens” outlined at its capital markets day back in December. 2
The comment falls under Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code—a formal “no intention to bid” announcement, meaning no new offer can come for six months unless certain exceptions apply. That six-month window quiets takeover talk for now, though it doesn’t kill the speculation. 2
Glencore’s board pushed back, saying negotiations broke down over terms. The company argued that the deal would have left Glencore—especially its copper assets and development projects—undervalued. “We concluded that the proposed acquisition on these terms is not in the best interests of Glencore shareholders,” Glencore said. 3
Valuation issues kept resurfacing, both investors and analysts say. “The strategic logic was always apparent, but perhaps finding a shared view on valuation was always going to be challenging,” Aberdeen’s Iain Pyle told Reuters. 4
Rio’s stock faces pressure from commodity moves—iron ore in particular, which remains the backbone of its profits. Iron ore futures fell under $100 a tonne on Friday, Bloomberg News reported, with traders pointing to sluggish Chinese demand leading up to Lunar New Year and a well-supplied market. 5
The risk is clear enough. Should iron ore prices slip more, or if China’s appetite for steel doesn’t hold up, Rio’s recent rebound could unravel fast. That would likely put the spotlight back on whether the company needs to lean harder into copper—regardless of fresh M&A chatter.
Looking ahead, Rio’s 2025 annual results land Feb. 19, and that’s the date traders have circled. Dividend plans, cost outlook, and fresh details on capital spending—especially following the failed merger talks—are all likely to get close attention. 6
