London, Jan 13, 2026, 08:12 GMT — Regular session
- Rio Tinto shares ticked up in early London trading following a Reuters report that BHP has no plans to bid for Glencore
- Investors remain fixated on whether Rio’s discussions with Glencore will lead to a concrete offer
- UK takeover rules require Rio to declare a firm intention or step back by Feb. 5
Rio Tinto shares edged higher by 0.1% to 6,143 pence in early London trade Tuesday, as investors digested new indications that a competing bid for Glencore might not be on the horizon. (Investing)
Recently, the stock’s movement has hinged more on deal math than the iron ore market. A merger with Glencore would mark an unusual shift for Rio: big, complicated, and impossible to overlook in an industry chasing copper exposure without overspending.
The timing is crucial since the countdown is now displayed on every screen. Under UK takeover rules, Rio must either confirm a bid for Glencore by February or back off, keeping traders fixated on headlines instead of quarterly production figures.
BHP plans to hold off on any move while Rio’s talks with Glencore play out, according to two sources who spoke to Reuters. There’s currently no plan for BHP to launch a bid for Glencore, contradicting rumors of a swift bidding battle. The insiders said BHP views Glencore’s trading division and coal assets as a poor strategic fit, preferring instead to target Anglo American’s copper holdings. BHP’s bid for Anglo collapsed late last year, Reuters noted. (Reuters)
Earlier this month, Rio revealed preliminary talks with Glencore over a potential combination, possibly an all-share merger paid entirely in stock. Any deal would probably proceed through a UK court-approved “scheme of arrangement.” Rio stressed there’s no guarantee an offer will materialize and flagged a Feb. 5 deadline under the Takeover Code, which the Takeover Panel could extend. (Rio Tinto)
“This is another sign that the mining sector is consolidating, with big players pushed into corporate moves to generate value,” Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global, told Reuters. Richard Hatch, an analyst at Berenberg, labeled BHP “the most likely interloper” if Rio and Glencore strike a deal. But RBC’s Kaan Peker argued BHP has “a cleaner growth profile in copper than a merged Rio/Glencore,” suggesting they “don’t need to do anything.” (Reuters)
Rio shareholders face a tricky side effect. While Glencore’s coal assets and commodity trading arm could boost profits, they also spark doubts about strategy, political risks, and which parts of the merged company might need to be sold off to appease regulators.
Disclosure filings have begun to surface. On Monday, Macquarie Group filed a Form 8.3 showing its holdings and trades in Rio Tinto shares and ADRs during the takeover “offer period”—the timeframe triggered once talks go public. (Investegate)
The downside scenario is clear: negotiations stall like before, wiping out any deal premium as investors pivot back to metals prices and China-driven demand. And even if Rio reaches an agreement, regulators might insist on asset sales. Shareholders could also resist if the valuation seems steep, particularly given Glencore’s coal and trading assets involved.
