Rivian Stock Jumps to 2023 Highs as Analysts Bet on R2 Launch and New Autonomy Revenue (RIVN)

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is ending 2025 with fresh momentum on Wall Street—and a stock chart that suddenly looks very different from where it started the year.

On Friday, December 19, 2025, Rivian stock surged roughly 10% intraday to around $22, briefly touching the $22.64 area and marking its highest levels since 2023, as investors piled into a growing “2026 inflection year” narrative around Rivian’s next vehicle platform (R2) and its expanding autonomy roadmap. ^[1]

The move follows a strong run over the prior sessions—driven less by a single headline and more by a cluster of analyst upgrades and tech-focused optimism after Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day (December 11) and follow-on research notes.

What’s driving Rivian stock today

Rivian’s rally on Dec. 19 sits at the intersection of three investor themes:

R2 is nearing production reality
Analysts increasingly view the mid-size R2 platform—expected to begin deliveries in the first half of 2026—as the product that can expand Rivian beyond premium EV buyers into a broader, higher-volume segment. ^[2]
Autonomy becomes a product—and a recurring revenue stream
Rivian is packaging hands-free driving as a paid offering (Autonomy+) with clear pricing and a timeline that puts subscription revenue in play as early as February 2026, according to Rivian’s own autonomy materials. ^[3]
Wall Street is repricing “software-defined Rivian”
Upgrades from firms like Baird and Wedbush—and a wave of updated price targets—are pushing the market to reconsider Rivian not only as an EV manufacturer, but also as a company building in-house compute, AI software, and (eventually) higher-margin services. ^[4]

Analyst upgrades and price targets: the “inflection year” thesis takes hold

The immediate catalyst for the latest leg higher has been analyst action—especially around a common $25 target that multiple firms have now embraced.

Baird: upgrade to Outperform/Buy, target raised to $25

Baird upgraded Rivian to Outperform and raised its price target to $25 (from $14), framing the R2 launch and a new product cycle as a demand driver into 2026. Baird also pointed to Rivian’s autonomy strategy and custom chips as strengthening long-term competitiveness. ^[5]

Baird’s forecast details matter to investors because they put numbers around the ramp:

R2 pricing estimate: about $45,000
First R2 deliveries assumption:late Q2 2026
2026 deliveries forecast: about 65,300 vehicles, including roughly 15,100 R2 units ^[6]

Wedbush: target raised to $25, keeps Outperform

On Dec. 19, Wedbush raised its Rivian price target to $25 (from $16) while reiterating an Outperform view, calling 2026 a “significant year” tied to the R2 launch and a stronger autonomy roadmap. ^[7]

The catch: consensus remains mixed

Even with upgrades, Rivian remains a split decision across the Street. Barron’s reported that only about 30% of analysts rate Rivian a Buy and that the consensus price target sits around $16, highlighting how quickly sentiment can improve at the top end without fully shifting the middle of the pack. ^[8]

That divergence is central to Rivian’s stock story heading into 2026: the bull case is getting louder, but the market is still pricing meaningful execution risk.

Autonomy & AI Day: why investors care about chips, LiDAR, and subscriptions

Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day (Dec. 11) did more than showcase features—it provided investors with a clearer map of how Rivian plans to compete on cost and capability.

Rivian shifts away from Nvidia for autonomy compute

Reuters reported that Rivian outlined a move away from Nvidia processors for autonomous-driving compute and introduced its own Rivian Autonomy Processor, with production tied to TSMC. ^[9]

The strategic message: vertical integration could help Rivian control both performance and cost as it heads into a higher-volume vehicle program.

Car and Driver added technical texture, describing Rivian’s first chip generation (RAP1) and the third-generation autonomy compute module (ACM3), positioning the new stack as a foundation for next-gen driver assistance and, eventually, eyes-off capability. ^[10]

Autonomy+ pricing is now explicit—and aggressive

Rivian is also putting autonomy on a paid tier with pricing that undercuts Tesla’s comparable package, at least on sticker price:

Reuters: Autonomy+ priced at $2,500 one-time or $49.99/month, versus Tesla’s Full Self-Driving pricing cited by Reuters at $8,000 or $99/month. ^[11]
Rivian’s own autonomy page: Autonomy+ includes a 60‑day trial with deliveries and is listed as available in February 2026 at $49.99/mo or $2,500 one-time, with ongoing feature updates. ^[12]

From an equity perspective, that subscription framing matters because it offers a path—however early—to more recurring, software-like revenue over time.

What “hands-free” means in Rivian’s language

Rivian markets its hands-free capability as operating on 3.5 million miles of roads in the U.S. and Canada, and says its sensing suite includes 10 HDR cameras and 5 radars. ^[13]

Investors are watching whether Rivian can translate those claims into:

higher feature adoption,
measurable attach rates for Autonomy+,
and ultimately stronger gross margin contribution.

R2: the make-or-break product cycle for Rivian stock

In 2025, Rivian still largely sells premium vehicles (R1T, R1S) and commercial vans, leaving a gap below its core price band. Analysts see R2 as the bridge into a larger market.

R2 is expected to be built at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois facility, with pricing estimates clustering around $45,000, according to Baird’s framing carried by Investing.com. ^[14]

Rivian’s Q3 2025 release (distributed via Business Wire) also emphasized that:

R2 remains on track for deliveries in the first half of 2026
Rivian completed major construction for the R2 body shop and general assembly facility and expects to begin manufacturing validation builds near year-end ^[15]

The bull case is straightforward: if Rivian can deliver a well-reviewed mid-size SUV, ramp volumes, and maintain cost discipline, the company may finally start to look like a scalable automaker rather than a niche premium brand.

The bear case is equally clear: if R2 slips, ramps slowly, or requires heavy discounting in a post-incentive EV market, Rivian’s financial runway becomes the headline again.

Fundamentals check: improving gross profit, but losses and cash burn remain

Rivian’s rally is happening alongside real progress on fundamentals, but investors should keep both sides of the ledger in view.

Q3 2025 showed a gross profit milestone

In its third-quarter 2025 results release via Business Wire, Rivian reported:

$1.558 billion in consolidated revenue (+78% YoY)
$24 million in consolidated gross profit
10,720 vehicles produced and 13,201 delivered ^[16]

The same release broke out a growing software-and-services contribution and noted R2 facility progress and capacity upgrades at Normal. ^[17]

But Rivian is still deeply unprofitable

The Business Wire release also shows Rivian’s scale challenge:

Loss from operations in the quarter was on the order of $1.169 billion ^[18]
Free cash flow (non-GAAP) was negative $421 million ^[19]

This is why “autonomy as a paid product” and “R2 ramp efficiency” are so central to the 2026 debate: Rivian needs margin expansion, not just volume.

Liquidity: cash still substantial, but financing is part of the story

Baird flagged liquidity as a key focus but noted Rivian ended Q3 with roughly $7.1 billion in cash and equivalents, and pointed to additional potential funding sources including a U.S. Department of Energy loan tied to the planned Georgia plant and additional funding expected from the Volkswagen joint venture as milestones are met. ^[20]

(As always, investors should treat milestones and loan processes as subject to conditions and timing.)

The policy backdrop: tax credit changes and tariffs reshaped the EV market in 2025

A major reason analysts focus on 2026 is that 2025 forced the EV industry to operate with fewer tailwinds.

In October, Reuters reported that sweeping U.S. legislation moved to abolish a $7,500 tax credit on leasing, and that the credit had expired—creating uncertainty for EV sales and prompting Rivian to narrow its 2025 delivery forecast range. ^[21]

Reuters also noted that tariffs on auto parts were pressuring costs and margins across the EV supply chain. ^[22]

This context matters because it frames what today’s upgrades are really saying: analysts are increasingly willing to underwrite a Rivian growth story even in a less-subsidized EV market, provided R2 hits its marks.

Partnerships and optionality: Volkswagen’s software bet on Rivian

Beyond near-term vehicle execution, investors continue to watch Rivian’s technology partnerships—especially with Volkswagen.

Reuters reported in November that Volkswagen said the technology being developed with Rivian could eventually extend to combustion vehicles, and noted Volkswagen had agreed to invest $5.8 billion in Rivian the prior year. Reuters also described VW’s plan for its ID.Every1 to debut the joint venture’s software/electrical architecture in 2027. ^[23]

For Rivian shareholders, this is important for two reasons:

it reinforces the idea that Rivian’s software/electrical architecture has value beyond its own vehicles, and
it offers a potential non-dilutive pathway (depending on deal structure and milestones) to fund the R2/R3 era.

Risks investors are still pricing in: recalls, demand, and execution

Even during a rally, Rivian remains a high-volatility stock because the downside scenarios are easy to articulate.

Recall and quality headlines

Reuters reported in early December that Rivian recalled 34,824 electric delivery vehicles in the U.S. related to a seat belt system issue, and said it was not aware of any incidents or injuries tied to the problem. ^[24]

Rivian also maintains a running recall-information page that was updated on Dec. 19, 2025, underscoring that recall management remains part of the operational backdrop for the company. ^[25]

Demand sensitivity in a post-incentive market

The market is still debating how resilient EV demand will be without prior tax-credit support and amid broader affordability pressure—especially for higher-priced models. That’s one reason why R2’s pricing and timing have become so central to the stock narrative. ^[26]

Execution risk is everything

For Rivian stock in 2026, the watchwords are:

on-time R2 launch
ramp efficiency and cost control
attach rates for Autonomy+
evidence that software/services can become meaningful at scale ^[27]

What to watch next for Rivian stock (RIVN)

With Rivian shares running hot into late December, investors will likely focus on a few concrete signposts in the coming months:

Autonomy+ rollout progress ahead of the February 2026 availability window (and whether features expand beyond hands-free highway driving as promised). ^[28]
R2 manufacturing validation builds and any updates on schedule confidence for first-half 2026 deliveries. ^[29]
Delivery performance vs. guidance in a market still adjusting to incentive changes and cost pressures. ^[30]
Further analyst revisions—especially if the broader consensus begins to move toward the new bull targets, or if skepticism persists despite the rally. ^[31]