Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is ending 2025 with a familiar mix of ingredients for EV investors: a strong stock move, a big product catalyst on the horizon, and a debate about whether the company’s technology story can outrun its cash burn long enough to reach scale.
As of Dec. 24, 2025, Rivian shares traded around $21.22 in U.S. markets, with light holiday-session volume and a narrow intraday range.
What’s different heading into 2026 is why people are paying attention. In December, Rivian pushed hard to reposition itself from “cool electric truck brand” to “software-defined vehicle platform”—complete with an autonomy roadmap, an in-house chip strategy, and a subscription model that targets recurring revenue. [1]
Below is a comprehensive round-up of the major news, forecasts, and analyses circulating on Dec. 24, 2025, and what they imply for the next leg of the Rivian stock story.
What’s driving Rivian stock headlines on Dec. 24, 2025
Today’s coverage clusters into three themes:
- R2 as the “next chapter”
Several market commentaries published Dec. 24 frame Rivian as an “EV recovery” candidate, with the upcoming R2 positioned as the mass-market catalyst investors have been waiting for. [2] - A stark split in price targets
On the same day that some commentary leans optimistic, at least one prominent “price prediction” piece published Dec. 24 takes a notably bearish stance—highlighting how divided forecasts remain even after the stock’s recent rally. [3] - Analysts leaning into the autonomy narrative
A Dec. 24 recap circulating on financial news aggregators points to Wedbush reaffirming an outperform stance and lifting its target to $25, explicitly tying the bull case to R2 and Rivian’s autonomy roadmap. [4]
The autonomy catalyst: Rivian’s chip pivot and the Autonomy+ business model
A big piece of Rivian’s December momentum traces back to its “Autonomy & AI Day” messaging and the analyst reaction that followed.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Rivian shares surged after analysts highlighted Rivian’s shift toward a custom self-driving chip strategy and deeper AI integration—moving away from Nvidia processors for future autonomy compute. Reuters also reported that the Rivian Autonomy Processor is expected to be produced by TSMC, and that Rivian’s R2 vehicles are expected to carry the new chips. [5]
Just as important: Rivian’s autonomy push isn’t being sold as “robotaxis next week.” Reuters emphasized that the systems still require human oversight today, while Rivian expects to launch “eyes-off” functionality in 2026 (timing and scope matter here, because autonomy claims are where hype goes to die). [6]
Then there’s the pricing strategy that made Wall Street sit up:
- Autonomy+ was described as $2,500 one-time or $49.99/month, undercutting Tesla’s Full Self-Driving pricing cited by Reuters. [7]
- Automotive outlets also highlighted the same pricing structure and the idea that Rivian is building a subscription-like pathway for higher-margin software revenue. [8]
For Rivian stock, that’s the real bet: not simply “sell more vehicles,” but “sell vehicles that become software cashflows over time.”
Hands-free driving expands to 3.5 million miles: product progress with real-world constraints
Rivian’s autonomy story isn’t just slides and stage lighting. In mid-December, coverage described Rivian rolling out expanded hands-free driver assistance—Universal Hands-Free—to second-generation R1 vehicles via software update, widening operational roads to 3.5 million miles across the U.S. and Canada (where lane lines are visible). [9]
TechCrunch reported that prior to the update, Rivian’s hands-free feature worked on about 135,000 miles of highways, and that the latest software greatly expanded capability while still requiring driver attention—explicitly pointing out broader industry risks and scrutiny for driver-assistance systems after high-profile crashes and investigations elsewhere. [10]
Car and Driver added a key “business model” detail: the expanded hands-free functionality is tied to an introductory free period, after which Autonomy+ pricing applies (again, Rivian nudging the product toward recurring revenue). [11]
This matters for Rivian stock because it turns autonomy from a vague promise into something that can be measured: adoption rates, retention, attach rates, and ultimately margin impact.
The R2 countdown: why 2026 is being treated as “the year of R2”
Rivian’s near-term narrative still revolves around one vehicle: R2, the more affordable SUV platform meant to expand Rivian’s addressable market beyond the premium R1T and R1S.
A Barron’s report this month described Baird upgrading Rivian to Buy and raising its price target to $25, explicitly calling out R2 as the central reason to “own into the new product cycle.” [12]
From Rivian’s own Q3 financial-results exhibit (filed Nov. 4, 2025), the company said R2 progress remains on track for deliveries in the first half of 2026, and provided unusually specific manufacturing-readiness detail:
- Construction completion of major Normal, Illinois facilities tied to R2
- Equipment bring-up underway
- Expectation to begin manufacturing validation builds at year-end
- Paint shop upgrades expected to lift total annual capacity to 215,000 units [13]
The same document also referenced Rivian’s longer-term capacity expansion plans, including its Georgia site (and job/capacity ambitions), which investors often view as a “future scale lever” rather than an immediate earnings driver. [14]
Meanwhile, several mainstream pieces discussing the R2 pitch still anchor on a ~$45,000 starting price theme—critical because price is where demand elasticity lives (and where EV incentives or the lack of them can change outcomes quickly). [15]
Rivian’s latest financial snapshot: growth, a slim gross profit, and big losses
Rivian’s technology story is loud; its financial reality is louder.
In its Nov. 4, 2025 Q3 results exhibit, Rivian reported:
- 10,720 vehicles produced and 13,201 delivered in Q3 2025 [16]
- $1.558B total revenue (automotive $1.142B, software & services $416M) [17]
- $24M consolidated gross profit (with automotive gross profit still negative, offset by software/services gross profit) [18]
- Adjusted EBITDA of -$602M for the quarter [19]
- Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $7.088B at quarter end [20]
For full-year 2025 guidance, the same exhibit listed:
- 41,500–43,500 vehicles delivered
- Adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.0B to $2.25B
- Capex of $1.8B to $1.9B [21]
Translation (in plain Earth language): Rivian is showing operational progress, but it’s still spending heavily—meaning the R2 launch and software monetization have to land cleanly for the long-term equity story to work without painful dilution or balance-sheet stress.
Tariffs, policy, and cost pressure: the non-glamorous variables that move the stock anyway
Even as Rivian sells a shiny autonomy future, it still builds physical vehicles in a world of tariffs, incentives, and supply chain math.
Reuters reported in early November that Rivian expected partial relief from a tariff offset for U.S.-made EVs, and that tariff costs on newly built vehicles were expected to fall to a few hundred dollars per vehicle from about $2,000 at that time, according to Rivian’s CFO. Reuters also reported Q3 revenue of $1.56B and a smaller adjusted net loss than analysts expected. [22]
Those details matter because “a few hundred dollars per vehicle” is the difference between margin progress and margin mirage when you’re fighting for gross-profit consistency.
The analyst forecast battlefield: $25 bull cases vs. mid-teens consensus targets
On Dec. 24, the most striking thing about Rivian stock forecasts isn’t a single number—it’s the spread.
Bulls: $23–$25 targets tied to R2 + autonomy monetization
- Reuters reported Needham raised its price target to $23, citing confidence in Rivian’s positioning as vehicles become more software-defined. [23]
- A Dec. 24 recap highlighted Wedbush raising its target to $25 and maintaining an outperform rating, pointing to the R2 launch and autonomy progress. [24]
- Barron’s reported Baird raising its target to $25 around the R2 thesis. [25]
The “consensus” crowd: neutral ratings and mid-teens averages
- TipRanks cited a Hold consensus based on recent analyst ratings, with an average price target around $16.22. [26]
- MarketBeat’s tracker showed an average price target around $15.73, implying downside from the then-current price level shown on that page. [27]
- Investing.com’s consensus estimates page also framed Rivian as Neutral, with an average 12‑month target around the mid‑$16 range and a high estimate of $25. [28]
Bears: a Dec. 24 forecast calling for substantial downside
A Dec. 24 price-prediction piece from 24/7 Wall St. published a bearish year-end target of $14.57, arguing that EV-market weakness and policy dynamics could keep pressure on the story despite long-term revenue-growth assumptions. [29]
If you’re wondering how all of this can be true at once: analysts are basically arguing about which Rivian is real.
- The “Rivian as a software platform” model supports premium valuation multiples—if subscription revenue scales and margins expand.
- The “Rivian as a capital-intensive automaker” model keeps valuation grounded until consistent profits appear.
Right now, the market is pricing a hybrid of both—and changing its mind quickly.
Safety and execution risks investors are tracking
Rivian’s biggest risks remain unromantic: quality, safety, regulation, and execution timing.
Delivery-van recall
Reuters reported that Rivian is recalling 34,824 electric delivery vehicles (EDVs) in the U.S. due to a seat belt issue that could reduce restraint performance, with remedies including an over-the-air update and inspection/replacement of pretensioner assemblies. [30]
NHTSA’s recall documentation describes the affected population and the risk mechanism (damage from repeated misuse), reinforcing that this is a real operational cost and reputational variable—even if markets often shrug off recalls in the moment. [31]
Driver-assistance scrutiny
As Rivian expands hands-free capabilities, TechCrunch flagged the broader industry reality: advanced driver-assistance features can attract investigations and litigation when driver attention fails or systems are misused. This is a risk category that grows as adoption grows. [32]
What to watch next for Rivian stock after Dec. 24, 2025
Rivian’s 2026 narrative is already being drafted in real time. The big swing factors investors will likely keep revisiting are:
- R2 manufacturing milestones (validation builds, supply chain readiness, and whether timelines hold) [33]
- Autonomy+ rollout and attach rate (how many owners pay, and how sticky subscriptions are) [34]
- Gross margin consistency (Rivian posted a small consolidated gross profit in Q3; the market will look for repeatability) [35]
- Cash burn vs. cash cushion (the company reported ~$7.1B in cash/cash equivalents/short-term investments at Q3 end) [36]
- Policy/tariff reality checks (management commentary has pointed to easing per-vehicle tariff costs, but policy can change faster than factories) [37]
Rivian stock is entering 2026 with genuine momentum—and a genuinely polarized forecast map. If the R2 launch hits on time and the autonomy subscription becomes a real revenue line rather than a PowerPoint character, the bull case gets teeth. If execution slips or macro/policy headwinds bite harder than expected, the mid-teens consensus targets start to look less “pessimistic” and more “priced for reality.” [38]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.fool.com, 3. 247wallst.com, 4. finviz.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.caranddriver.com, 9. techcrunch.com, 10. techcrunch.com, 11. www.caranddriver.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 14. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 17. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 18. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 19. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 20. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 21. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. finviz.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. 247wallst.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. static.nhtsa.gov, 32. techcrunch.com, 33. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 36. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.barrons.com
