Published: December 6, 2025
Rivian Automotive’s stock has staged a powerful comeback in 2025. After trading in the low double digits earlier in the year, shares recently punched up to a new 52‑week high above $18 on the back of improving margins, fresh capital from Volkswagen and growing excitement around its mass‑market R2 SUV. [1]
At the same time, Rivian is dealing with a high‑profile recall of tens of thousands of delivery vans, a shifting U.S. EV policy landscape and a still‑sizable cash burn as it races toward 2026. [2]
This article rounds up the latest news, analyst forecasts and stock analysis as of December 6, 2025 to give a clear picture of where Rivian stock stands now – and what could come next.
Rivian stock today: price, momentum and volatility
As of the latest trading data on December 6, 2025, Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is changing hands at around $18 per share, just below its recent 52‑week high near $18.14 set on December 4. [3]
Over the past 12 months, Rivian has delivered an impressive total return of about 47%, with year‑to‑date gains of roughly 32%, reflecting a sharp shift in investor sentiment from the pessimism of 2023–24. [4]
However, this is not a low‑risk, sleepy large‑cap. Rivian’s stock:
- Has a beta around 1.8, meaning it tends to move much more sharply than the broader market
- Has attracted heavy trading volumes in recent sessions, with daily volume in the tens of millions of shares
- Is showing technical signs of being close to overbought territory, based on RSI readings highlighted by options‑flow analysis. [5]
Short version: Rivian stock is hot again – but it’s also volatile and sentiment‑driven.
Q3 2025: first positive gross profit, but losses remain large
The core driver behind Rivian’s rally in late 2025 is a visible improvement in its financial profile.
In Q3 2025, Rivian:
- Generated about $1.6 billion in revenue, beating Wall Street expectations
- Delivered 13,201 vehicles while producing roughly 10,700 units at its Normal, Illinois plant
- Posted its first positive consolidated gross profit, around $24 million, versus a large gross loss a year earlier [6]
Revenue growth remains strong:
- Consolidated revenue rose roughly 78% year over year
- Automotive revenue climbed about 47% YoY to around $1.1–1.14 billion
- Software and services revenue reached ~$416 million, up more than 300% YoY, and contributed an estimated $154 million of gross profit [7]
Despite that milestone gross profit, Rivian is still deep in the red:
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss was about $602 million
- Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance for an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.0–$2.25 billion and capital expenditures of $1.8–$1.9 billion
- Full‑year gross profit is expected to be roughly break‑even [8]
On volume, Rivian still expects to ship 41,500–43,500 vehicles in 2025, with Q3 being the peak quarter for deliveries. [9]
The message to investors: unit economics are improving, especially on the software and services side, but the business model is not yet self‑funding.
Cash runway: Volkswagen partnership, DOE loan and liquidity
A key question for any high‑growth EV maker is simple: Will they run out of money before they turn profitable?
For now, Rivian’s answer looks more comfortable than it did a year ago:
- The company ended Q3 2025 with about $7.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short‑term investments. [10]
- Earlier commentary also noted $7.5 billion of cash and investments at the end of Q2 2025, underscoring a still‑robust liquidity position. [11]
On top of the existing cash pile, Rivian has multiple funding backstops:
- A multi‑year joint venture and investment agreement with Volkswagen Group worth up to $5.8 billion, focused on EV software and electrical architecture
- Volkswagen has already delivered two $1 billion tranches (late 2024 and mid‑2025), with further payments contingent on milestones, and now holds an estimated 8–9% stake in Rivian [12]
- The company also expects to receive up to $2.5 billion more from Volkswagen related to the JV, including roughly $2 billion planned for 2026 [13]
- The U.S. Department of Energy has approved an up to $6.6 billion loan tied to Rivian’s manufacturing expansion, offering relatively low‑cost capital for its R2 platform build‑out. [14]
Rivian is still burning cash, but between VW’s equity injections, the DOE loan and its current balance sheet, the near‑term liquidity risk has eased substantially. That helps explain why some analysts now focus less on survival and more on execution and valuation.
Seat belt recall: a safety test for the EDV business
On December 3, 2025, Rivian announced a major seat belt recall affecting nearly 35,000 electric delivery vans (EDVs) in the United States. [15]
Key details:
- The recall covers 34,824 EDVs built between 2022 and 2025
- The issue involves the driver’s seat belt pretensioner cable, which can be damaged if drivers sit on a buckled belt, potentially preventing proper restraint in a crash
- The recall is limited to delivery vans – it does not include the R1T pickup or R1S SUV
- Rivian says it is not aware of any injuries linked to the problem
- The company has rolled out an over‑the‑air software update to detect misuse and will inspect and replace affected hardware free of charge [16]
Interestingly, some coverage noted that Rivian shares edged higher on the day the recall was announced, suggesting investors see the issue as manageable and largely confined to the commercial fleet. [17]
Still, the EDV program is strategically important: many of these vans are deployed with Amazon, a key early backer of Rivian. Recalls can raise questions about quality and operating costs, even if they are well managed.
Demand snapshot: November sales surge amid EV policy shifts
While the recall grabbed headlines, recent sales data has been quietly encouraging.
According to data cited by Benzinga, Rivian sold over 4,500 R1T and R1S vehicles in the U.S. in November 2025, up about 14% from October’s 3,944 units and roughly 24% above November 2024 levels. [18]
This growth stands out against a tougher backdrop for EVs in general. In the same report:
- Ford’s overall EV sales fell around 60% year over year in November
- F‑150 Lightning sales plunged more than 70% [19]
Policy changes are reshaping the playing field. With President Donald Trump’s rollback of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe argued that the move could ultimately be positive for Rivian by:
- Simplifying incentives over the long term
- Reducing competitive pressure as legacy automakers slow their EV investments [20]
However, Rivian’s own management has acknowledged near‑term demand softness around the expiration of earlier EV incentives, including the IRA credit, noting a pull‑forward of demand followed by a weaker period. [21]
The takeaway: R1T and R1S are still gaining traction, but the broader U.S. EV market is choppier, and policy risk has not disappeared.
R2 SUV and Autonomy & AI Day: the big 2026 catalysts
Most of the long‑term bull case for Rivian stock hinges on the R2 platform and the company’s push into advanced driver‑assistance and AI.
R2: Rivian’s “Model 3 moment”?
Multiple analysts have drawn a parallel between Rivian’s upcoming R2 and Tesla’s Model 3:
- Today, Rivian primarily sells higher‑priced vehicles typically $70,000 and up, a niche premium segment
- The R2 SUV is targeting a starting price around $45,000, putting it squarely in competition with Toyota’s RAV4, Honda’s CR‑V and Tesla’s Model Y – the heart of the global SUV market [22]
Rivian’s own commentary suggests:
- R2 is planned for launch in early 2026
- Management aims for positive unit economics on R2 by the end of 2026
- The Normal, Illinois plant is being upgraded to 215,000 units of capacity, with an additional ~400,000 units of planned capacity at a new Georgia facility for R2, R3 and related models [23]
A Trefis analysis argues that if Rivian can successfully scale R2 without falling into “production hell”, the stock could potentially double from current levels over time. [24]
December 11 Autonomy & AI Day
Another near‑term catalyst is Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day on December 11, 2025.
According to analysts at D.A. Davidson, summarized in a Stocktwits report, Rivian is expected to focus on:
- Practical “personal autonomy” features that make daily driving easier
- Enhancements to its driver‑assist systems, rather than ambitious robotaxi plans [25]
The same report notes that:
- Investor sentiment on Stocktwits is “extremely bullish”, with high retail interest
- Yet analysts believe the stock may remain range‑bound until investors see clearer progress on R2, Volkswagen integration and margin improvement [26]
Rivian is also spinning up Mind Robotics, an AI‑driven industrial automation venture, further signaling how central software and autonomy are to its long‑term strategy. [27]
How Wall Street values Rivian stock right now
Opinions on Rivian are sharply divided – even more so now that the share price has climbed.
Consensus and ratings
MarketBeat data shows that after the recent rally:
- Rivian carries a consensus “Hold” rating
- The average price target is about $14.34, below the current share price
- The analyst mix includes 6 Buys, 16 Holds and 5 Sells
- Insiders own just over 2% of the stock, and CEO RJ Scaringe recently sold around 52,000 shares at roughly $16.60, trimming his stake modestly [28]
A separate Benzinga look at options activity notes that recent ratings from three market experts imply an average target around $19, slightly above where the stock trades today, and flags that technical indicators suggest the stock may be approaching overbought territory. [29]
Bullish research: “strong buy” and 10x potential
On the bullish side:
- A Seeking Alpha contributor recently upgraded Rivian to a “strong buy”, citing
- Improving margins
- Favorable policy tailwinds
- Rapid expansion of software and services (27% of Q3 revenue)
- A target in the “high $20s” ahead of the R2 launch [30]
- Another long‑term piece, highlighted on Finviz and originally from Motley Fool channels, lists Rivian as one of two stocks that could potentially turn $100,000 into $1 million by 2035, noting:
- A market cap around $20 billion versus Tesla’s roughly trillion‑dollar valuation
- A price‑to‑sales ratio near 3, versus Tesla at about 16
- The possibility of Rivian offering multiple sub‑$50,000 models by 2026 [31]
A separate analysis even asks whether buying Rivian stock today could “set you up for life,” emphasizing its large cash balance (about $7.5 billion at the end of Q2) and the scale of the addressable market if R2 succeeds. [32]
Skeptical voices: expensive on traditional metrics
There are also more cautious – even bearish – takes:
- Simply Wall St’s valuation framework currently gives Rivian 0/6 on its valuation checks, concluding that the stock looks expensive on traditional metrics such as discounted cash flow. [33]
- Investing.com’s coverage of the recent 52‑week high notes that while revenue growth and returns have been strong, Rivian shares may be trading above the platform’s estimate of fair value. [34]
- A number of research shops, including RBC in commentary relayed via financial news aggregators, have urged caution ahead of Autonomy & AI Day given the run‑up in the stock and execution risks still ahead. [35]
Put simply: the consensus numbers say “Hold,” the headlines often say “Buy,” and the models frequently say “Pricey.”
Rivian stock forecast: key scenarios for 2026 and beyond
Rather than a single price target, it’s more realistic to think in scenarios. The current mix of research suggests three broad paths:
1. Bull case: R2 lands, margins inflect, stock rerates higher
In the bullish scenario – roughly aligned with the more optimistic analyst views:
- R2 launches on time in early 2026, hitting its $45,000 price point and tapping into the mainstream SUV segment
- Rivian achieves positive unit economics on R2 by late 2026
- Software and services continue to grow, maintaining strong margins and a 20%+ share of revenue
- Volkswagen milestones are met, unlocking additional capital and cementing tech integration
- Autonomy & AI Day and subsequent updates prove that Rivian’s driver‑assist roadmap is credible and differentiating [36]
In that world, it’s easy to see why some analysts talk about the stock reaching the high $20s in the medium term and even having multi‑bagger potential over a decade. [37]
2. Base case: steady progress, but volatility and valuation caps
A more neutral scenario, closer to current consensus:
- R2 launches successfully but with typical start‑up hiccups
- 2026 volumes grow, but margins improve more slowly than hoped
- EV demand remains mixed due to policy and macro uncertainty
- Recalls and quality issues remain manageable but not absent
- The stock oscillates around a mid‑teens to high‑teens band as investors weigh strong growth vs. high capital needs
That’s broadly consistent with a consensus price target near the mid‑teens, with upside and downside skew depending on sentiment and macro conditions. [38]
3. Bear case: execution missteps and macro shocks
The bear case centres on execution and policy risk:
- R2 is delayed or launches into a weak demand environment
- Cost overruns on new plants and R2 tooling erode the balance sheet faster than expected
- Further recalls or quality issues damage the brand
- EV policy turns less favorable, or tariffs and trade disputes raise costs again [39]
Even with VW and DOE support, sustained underperformance could push Rivian toward dilutive capital raises, compressing the equity’s value. Valuation models that already flag Rivian as expensive would likely reset lower in this scenario. [40]
What investors should watch next
For anyone following Rivian stock – whether as a shareholder or from the sidelines – the next 12–18 months will likely hinge on a few simple checkpoints:
- Autonomy & AI Day (Dec. 11, 2025)
- Does Rivian show a credible roadmap for driver assistance that can justify its software narrative?
- R2 program milestones
- Factory readiness in Illinois and Georgia
- Confirmation of pricing, trims and delivery timing for early 2026 [41]
- Margin progression
- Can Rivian sustain or grow positive gross profit while narrowing EBITDA losses quarter by quarter? [42]
- Volkswagen JV execution
- Evidence that software co‑development is hitting milestones and unlocking additional tranches of capital [43]
- Recall resolution and quality metrics
- Speed and thoroughness of the EDV seat belt fix
- Any further safety actions involving R1T or R1S [44]
- EV policy and demand trends
- How the rollback of EV credits and new tariffs shape the broader market
- Whether Rivian can keep growing volumes even as some rivals see steep declines [45]
Bottom line
Rivian in late 2025 is no longer a pure survival story, but it is also far from a mature, low‑risk auto manufacturer.
- The company has proven it can reach positive gross profit, grown software and services into a powerful margin engine and secured multi‑billion‑dollar backing from Volkswagen and the U.S. government. [46]
- At the same time, it faces recalls, policy uncertainty, intense competition and very large ongoing losses, with its most important product – the R2 – still in pre‑launch. [47]
That combination explains why Rivian stock can hit fresh highs while still drawing “Hold” ratings and valuation warnings. For now, the market seems willing to give Rivian the benefit of the doubt – but 2026 execution will determine whether today’s optimism looks prescient or premature.
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a substitute for independent financial research.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. electrek.co, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.fool.com, 12. www.caranddriver.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.benzinga.com, 19. www.benzinga.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.trefis.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.trefis.com, 25. stocktwits.com, 26. stocktwits.com, 27. stocktwits.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.benzinga.com, 30. seekingalpha.com, 31. finviz.com, 32. www.fool.com, 33. simplywall.st, 34. www.investing.com, 35. finviz.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. seekingalpha.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. techcrunch.com, 40. simplywall.st, 41. www.investing.com, 42. www.investing.com, 43. riviantrackr.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.benzinga.com, 46. www.investing.com, 47. www.reuters.com
