NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 4:02 p.m. ET — Market closed
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) enters the final trading stretch of 2025 with investors debating a familiar question: is the recent run the start of a durable re-rating tied to Rivian’s software-and-autonomy roadmap—or a momentum burst vulnerable to profit-taking and year-end volatility?
With U.S. stock markets closed Sunday, Rivian shares last finished Friday at $20.90, down about 1.1% on the day, after-hours slightly lower at $20.87. [1]
Where Rivian stock stands heading into Monday
RIVN’s late-December tape has been choppy after an explosive mid-month surge. The stock climbed sharply in the days following Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day, then pulled back from recent highs. Price history shows RIVN closed at $16.43 on Dec. 11, jumped to $20.28 on Dec. 18, and reached $22.45 on Dec. 19, before sliding to $21.75 on Dec. 22 and ending $20.90 on Dec. 26. [2]
The pullback has not erased the rally’s key message: the market is actively repricing Rivian around a 2026 narrative—R2 launch execution and a potential software revenue stream—rather than only near-term delivery volumes.
The freshest headlines in the last 24–48 hours
Even as trading pauses for the weekend, commentary and positioning continue.
Jim Cramer: “Take some off the table… let the rest run”
In a Dec. 28 “Lightning Round” mention highlighted by Insider Monkey, CNBC’s Jim Cramer described Rivian’s move as “terrific,” while cautioning that “some of it is a short squeeze” and encouraging investors to lock in partial gains. In his words: “take some off the table and then let the rest run.” [3]
While Cramer’s take isn’t a fundamental model update, it reflects what many traders have been watching: RIVN’s volatility, heavy short interest discussion, and the tendency for big catalyst-driven runs in unprofitable growth names to invite quick profit-taking.
“Rivian is a bona fide AI stock,” argues The Motley Fool
A widely circulated Dec. 27 analysis published by The Motley Fool (and syndicated on Nasdaq.com) frames Rivian as a potential “AI stock” because of its emphasis on in-house autonomy systems and software. The article points to Rivian’s valuation gap versus Tesla, noting Tesla’s higher sales multiple and arguing Rivian trades at a materially lower price-to-sales ratio. [4]
Whether or not investors agree with the label, this “AI/autonomy platform” framing has become central to Rivian’s bull case—and helps explain why an automaker can rally hard on technology-day headlines even when near-term earnings remain negative.
Institutional positioning: a notable 13F-related reduction
Separately, MarketBeat reported that Vontobel Holding Ltd. reduced its Rivian position sharply in the third quarter, per a 13F filing, including the sale of 378,188 shares. [5]
On its own, a single institution’s quarter-old filing doesn’t dictate price action—but in a stock where sentiment can swing quickly, positioning headlines can amplify moves when liquidity is thin.
What sparked the rally: autonomy and software monetization
Rivian’s December catalyst was its push to convince investors it can monetize software—especially driver-assistance—and control more of its own autonomy stack.
In mid-December, Reuters reported Rivian debuted a custom self-driving chip and introduced a driver-assistance package called Autonomy+, priced at $2,500 one-time or $49.99 per month, undercutting Tesla’s Full Self-Driving pricing. [6]
Rivian’s own public-facing autonomy materials also emphasize “hands-free assisted driving” coverage of roughly 3.5 million miles of roads in the U.S. and Canada, along with additional features (some slated for 2026). [7]
The Wall Street Journal similarly described Rivian expanding hands-free capability to 3.5 million miles, with Autonomy+ priced around $50/month or $2,500 one-time, and positioned the shift as an “AI-first” strategy. [8]
A key point for investors: Rivian isn’t selling “full autonomy” today—it’s selling a paid package around supervised driver-assistance, plus a roadmap. Markets tend to reward that kind of recurring-revenue story if investors believe the feature set will improve and the take-rate will be meaningful.
Analyst outlook: optimism is rising, but Wall Street is still split
Rivian’s rally wasn’t powered only by product demos; it was reinforced by a wave of bullish commentary and higher targets earlier in December.
Bulls: $25 targets and a “prove-me” 2026
Barron’s reported that Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded Rivian to Buy and raised his price target to $25 from $14, citing the upcoming R2 platform and Rivian’s autonomy progress. [9]
Investor’s Business Daily also highlighted that Wedbush analyst Dan Ives lifted his price target to $25 (from $16) and described 2026 as a pivotal year, with R2 expected to help delivery metrics while Rivian works to add revenue streams beyond the core vehicle business. [10]
Needham and BNP Paribas have also been part of the more constructive camp this month; Reuters previously cited Needham raising its target (to $23) and BNP Paribas initiating coverage at Outperform with a $19 target as Rivian’s autonomy-and-AI strategy gained attention. [11]
Bears and skeptics: delivery risk, cash burn, and execution
The caution case remains straightforward: Rivian is still losing money and must execute a major product ramp (R2) while continuing heavy investment in software, autonomy, manufacturing, and service.
That split shows up in consensus snapshots. Barron’s noted that about 30% of analysts rate Rivian a “Buy,” with an average price target around $16—a sign that many on the Street still view the recent rally as ahead of fundamentals. [12]
The “R2 moment” — why 2026 matters more than the next quarter
Investors keep circling back to R2 because it’s designed to broaden Rivian’s addressable market with a lower-priced vehicle line, and to carry newer software/autonomy architecture.
Business Insider reported Rivian’s autonomy chief James Philbin defended the company’s decision to incorporate lidar into the R2 roadmap, calling it “very affordable” and “a no-brainer,” while also acknowledging the R2 is expected to launch first without lidar, with a lidar-equipped version later. [13]
The key investor implication: Rivian is effectively asking the market to underwrite a multi-step rollout—vehicle launch first, then progressively richer autonomy hardware and paid software features. If that staged approach works, it supports a higher multiple; if it slips, valuation can compress quickly.
Fundamentals check: improving narrative, but profitability remains the hurdle
Rivian’s near-term financial picture still carries pressure points, even as the story improves.
Reuters reported in November that Rivian beat a quarterly revenue estimate aided by buyers rushing before incentive changes, while the company also navigated tariff-related costs—highlighting how policy can materially affect EV economics and demand. [14]
Policy risk remains on investors’ radar more broadly. Reuters has previously described EV makers contending with shifting U.S. policy—removal of consumer tax credits, tariffs, and other changes—adding uncertainty to demand and cost curves. [15]
In short: Rivian can rally on a software/autonomy roadmap, but the stock ultimately needs consistent evidence that gross margin and cash burn are moving in the right direction.
Next key date: earnings (forecasted) and what it could mean for RIVN
The next major scheduled catalyst is Rivian’s Q4 report. Wall Street Horizon lists Rivian’s next earnings date as Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026 (After Market), currently unconfirmed (forecasted based on reporting patterns). [16]
For a stock that has moved sharply on narrative catalysts, earnings season can become a reality check—especially around:
- 2026 delivery expectations and early R2 production timing
- Autonomy+/software monetization metrics (if disclosed)
- gross margin trajectory and cash burn guidance
What investors should know before the next session
When trading resumes Monday (Dec. 29), three practical issues are likely to shape RIVN’s next move:
- Liquidity and year-end positioning
The final week of December can bring thinner liquidity and sharper swings, especially in high-beta, story-driven names.
This week is also holiday-shortened with markets closed for New Year’s Day (Thursday). Nasdaq’s official holiday schedule lists Jan. 1 closed, and earlier in the week investors will be watching how holiday conditions affect volume and volatility. [17]
- Key technical levels from the recent range
Based on recent trading history, investors will likely watch:
- Support zone: roughly $20.77–$20.90 (Friday’s low/close area) [18]
- Near-term resistance: around $21.55 (Friday’s high) [19]
- Bigger ceiling: the late-December highs around $22.6–$22.7 [20]
If RIVN opens strong and clears resistance on real volume, bulls will argue the pullback was a healthy consolidation. If it breaks support, traders may view it as post-surge digestion—especially after Cramer’s profit-taking framing.
- Narrative vs. numbers: autonomy excitement meets cash-burn reality
The market is currently rewarding Rivian’s autonomy and AI strategy—custom silicon, hands-free expansion, and a paid Autonomy+ tier—while still acknowledging the company’s long runway to profitability. [21]
That tension can create outsized moves on any incremental data point: a delivery update, a new partnership, a margin signal, or even a shift in analyst tone.
Rivian stock is heading into Monday’s session with momentum still visible in the chart—and skepticism still visible in consensus targets. The near-term setup is less about what happens in a quiet weekend and more about whether Rivian can keep converting autonomy headlines into measurable, recurring software revenue while executing the R2 ramp on time and within cost targets. [22]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.insidermonkey.com, 4. www.fool.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. rivian.com, 8. www.wsj.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.investors.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.businessinsider.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.barrons.com
