Rivian Stock Today (RIVN): Q3 2025 Earnings, Seat Belt Recall, VW Joint Venture and New Price Targets

Meta description: Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) trades near 52‑week highs after a strong Q3 2025, even as a major recall, mixed Wall Street targets and a high‑stakes Volkswagen software deal keep the stock volatile. Here’s a full news and forecast rundown as of December 4, 2025.

Rivian’s Setup on 4 December 2025: Rallying Into Uncertainty

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is finishing December 4, 2025 near new 52‑week highs around the $18 mark, extending a sharp rally that began after the company reported stronger‑than‑expected Q3 2025 results and positive gross profit in early November. ^[1]

At the same time, investors are digesting three big storylines:

a recall of nearly 35,000 electric delivery vans in the U.S.,
a fresh RBC Capital note that praises Rivian’s pivot toward autonomous driving but keeps a cautious $14 price target, and
new institutional buying from Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank, balanced by continued insider stock sales. ^[2]

Put together, the news flow from 3–4 December paints a picture of a company clearly improving operationally, but still controversial as a stock.

Rivian Stock Price Snapshot (RIVN)

Recent price: around the high‑$17s to low‑$18s on 4 December 2025
52‑week range: roughly $10.36 – $18.13 ^[3]
Market cap: about $21–22 billion, roughly double its level a year ago ^[4]
Short‑term trend: eight straight daily gains, up ~17% over the last two weeks in one technical service’s view ^[5]

The stock has also climbed about 66% from its April 2025 low of $10.36, according to a 24/7 Wall St. analysis, though it still trades ~85% below its post‑IPO peak near $180. ^[6]

In other words: RIVN is back in “hot money” territory, with big moves both up and down very much on the table.

Q3 2025: Revenue Surges and Gross Profit Turns Positive

Rivian’s latest quarter is the backbone of the bull case.

According to the company’s Q3 2025 shareholder communication and detailed breakdowns from Rivian‑focused outlet RivianTrackr: ^[7]

Production: 10,720 vehicles
Deliveries: 13,201 vehicles (best quarter of 2025)
Total revenue:$1.56 billion, up 78% year‑over‑year
Automotive revenue: about $1.14 billion, +47% YoY
Software & services revenue: about $416 million, up ~324% YoY, boosted by Volkswagen joint‑venture work
Gross profit: roughly +$24 million vs a -$392 million gross loss in Q3 2024
Automotive gross profit: still about -$130 million, but a large improvement versus last year
Software & services gross profit: around $154 million, showing how important software is becoming to the model

For full‑year 2025, management is guiding to: ^[8]

Deliveries: 41,500–43,500 vehicles
Adjusted EBITDA:-$2.0 to -$2.25 billion
Capex:$1.8–1.9 billion

This is still a heavily loss‑making business, but the shift to positive gross profit, rising software income, and tight cost controls are exactly what many analysts had been waiting to see.

Volkswagen Joint Venture: The Software Story Driving the Next Leg

Rivian’s deepening partnership with Volkswagen Group is one of the most important medium‑term drivers for RIVN.

A November 12, 2025 update from Volkswagen says the “Rivian and Volkswagen Group Technologies” (RV Tech) joint venture has: ^[9]

grown to more than 1,500 employees,
made strong progress developing a software‑defined vehicle (SDV) zonal architecture, and
is preparing reference vehicles from Volkswagen, Audi and Scout for winter testing in Q1 2026.

Key points from that update and related commentary:

VW will deploy the SDV architecture on its upcoming SSP platform, targeting up to 30 million vehicles over time. ^[10]
Rivian will use the same tech for future R2, R3 and R3X models and to update existing R1 vehicles via over‑the‑air (OTA) software. ^[11]
A 24/7 Wall St. review notes the Volkswagen partnership totals about $5.8 billion, with $1 billion already funded in June 2025 and additional capital tied to technical milestones — a crucial liquidity backstop for an unprofitable company. ^[12]

RBC Capital’s December 4 note leans heavily on this autonomy and software pivot, arguing that Level 3 autonomous features are likely to become table stakes across the industry and that Rivian’s choice to in‑source autonomy could eventually turn that area into a profit center. But RBC also warns that profitably scaling R2 and R3 will matter far more to investors than any one technology demo. ^[13]

The December 2025 Seat Belt Recall: Big Number, Limited Scope

On December 3, 2025, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published a filing showing that Rivian is recalling 34,824 electric delivery vehicles in the U.S. because their driver seat‑belt system may fail to restrain the driver properly. ^[14]

Key details from the NHTSA filing and Reuters coverage: ^[15]

The recall affects certain 2022–2025 EDV vans (commercial vehicles) – not the R1T/R1S consumer lineup.
The issue occurs when drivers frequently sit on a seat belt that is already buckled, damaging the pretensioner cable.
Rivian says it is not aware of any injuries tied to the defect.
The company has issued an OTA software update to detect seat‑belt misuse and will inspect and, if necessary, replace the pretensioner assembly free of charge.

Despite the large headline number, the recall is operationally manageable and focused on the commercial EDV fleet. The stock has continued to trade near its highs, suggesting investors see the recall as a reputational risk and a modest cost item, rather than a thesis‑breaker.

Who’s Buying and Who’s Selling: Norges Bank vs. Insiders

Big institutional buyer: Norges Bank

On December 4, MarketBeat highlighted that Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, opened a new position of about 7.7 million Rivian shares during Q2 2025, valued around $105.6 million and representing roughly 0.68% of the company. Institutional ownership overall is estimated around two‑thirds of the float. ^[16]

Insiders trimming stakes

At the same time, insiders are net sellers:

CEO RJ Scaringe sold about 52,350 shares in a November transaction at roughly $16.60 per share, though he still holds more than 1.2 million shares. ^[17]
CFO Claire McDonough sold 29,249 shares on December 2 and December 4, generating proceeds of about $508,000 under a pre‑arranged Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan. She still directly owns about 730,000 RIVN shares. ^[18]

These sales do not automatically signal that insiders are bearish – executives often diversify or sell for tax reasons – but combined with the recent rally they add to the perception that insiders view today’s valuation as at least a reasonable time to trim.

Wall Street Ratings and Price Targets: A Wide Spread

Across Wall Street, RIVN is still a “Hold” stock on average:

MarketBeat counts 27 analysts covering Rivian: 6 Buy, 16 Hold, 5 Sell.
The average 12‑month price target sits around $14.3 per share. ^[19]

Recent target and rating moves give a sense of how divided the Street is:

RBC Capital: Sector Perform, $14 target, effectively calling the recent rally stretched and warning that R2/R3 execution and liquidity remain key risks. ^[20]
Stifel Nicolaus: Buy, target raised from $16 to $17 after strong Q3, citing momentum in software and reduced cost of goods sold. ^[21]
Tigress Financial: Buy, target lifted from $21 to $25, leaning into Rivian’s AI, autonomy efforts and upcoming model launches. ^[22]
Wedbush, UBS, Mizuho and others: a mix of Outperform/Neutral/Underperform ratings with targets mainly between $10 and $16, according to recent MarketBeat summaries. ^[23]

Meanwhile, Benchmark’s EV analyst Mickey Legg, in coverage highlighted by his firm, sees roughly 63% upside to his Rivian target and forecasts about 46,300 deliveries in 2025, with a stronger ramp in the second half of the year. ^[24]

By contrast, a 24/7 Wall St. deep‑dive on December 3 sets a year‑ahead fair value of $11.88, implying about 31% downside from current levels. That piece emphasizes: ^[25]

lingering EV demand softness after the expiration of U.S. federal EV tax credits,
rising material costs from tariffs,
Rivian’s ongoing heavy losses, and
the risk that investors are over‑paying for growth that may take years to materialize.

Net‑net, credible targets now span roughly $10–$25, a spread that perfectly captures the market’s uncertainty.

Quant & Technical Forecasts: Slightly Bullish, High Risk

Short‑term trading and quantitative services are generally constructive but cautious.

StockInvest.us view

Technical site StockInvest.us, tracking price and volume patterns, notes that: ^[26]

Rivian has logged eight straight up days, up ~16–17% over two weeks.
The stock sits in the upper part of a strong rising trend channel, often a good spot for short‑term traders to consider taking profits or tightening stops.
The service projects an expected 12.4% rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability that the share price will finish that window between about $14.78 and $20.81.
Overall, RIVN is labeled a “Buy candidate” in their system, but with high volatility risk and a recommended relatively tight stop‑loss.

Options market

Options analytics from one data provider show implied volatility around 72% for Rivian options – far above broad‑market averages – underlining just how large the daily swings can be. ^[27]

For short‑term traders, that volatility is the attraction. For long‑term holders, it’s a reminder to size positions carefully.

Fundamental Valuation: Overvalued Growth Story or Just Getting Started?

While traders and some analysts see further upside, several fundamental valuation services argue Rivian’s share price has outrun its fundamentals.

Discounted‑cash‑flow and multiples

Simply Wall St estimates Rivian’s intrinsic value using a discounted cash‑flow model and concludes the stock trades well above that fair value, even after factoring in robust future growth. It also points out that Rivian’s price‑to‑sales multiple is far higher than the auto sector average, despite continuing heavy losses. ^[28]

Medium‑term revenue & profit path

24/7 Wall St. models Rivian’s revenue rising from about $4.8 billion in 2025 to $9.6 billion by 2030, with per‑share losses gradually shrinking but not reaching break‑even until around 2030. Under those assumptions, their model still yields a bearish $11.88 target over the next year, given sector headwinds and policy changes. ^[29]

Big macro swings

Both services stress that Rivian operates in a sector hit by:

policy uncertainty, including the Trump administration’s proposed rollback of fuel‑economy rules and EV incentives; ^[30]
tariff‑driven cost pressures on imported components; ^[31]
intensifying competition from Tesla, legacy OEMs, and Chinese EV makers; and
consumer demand wobble as higher rates and weaker rebates bite. ^[32]

From this lens, Rivian looks like a high‑beta way to bet on a recovery in EV demand and risk appetite, not a classic value play.

What Changed on December 4, 2025 Specifically?

If you focus just on news, forecasts and analysis dated 4 December 2025, these are the key fresh pieces:

RBC Capital reiterated its Sector Perform, $14 target, praising Rivian’s autonomy pivot but emphasizing liquidity and execution risks and seeing potential downside from current prices. ^[33]
StocksToTrade highlighted RIVN’s ~2.5% intraday gain, tying it to the 78% revenue growth, positive gross margin, and Tigress’s $25 target, and framing Rivian as a momentum name for active traders. ^[34]
Zacks Equity Research published a note titled “Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Up 13.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?”, underlining how much of the Q3 beat is already reflected in the price. ^[35]
MarketBeat named Rivian one of three “Promising EV stocks to watch” today, alongside Tesla and NIO, pointing to its heavy trading volume and role as a core EV sector proxy. ^[36]
Another MarketBeat alert flagged Norges Bank’s new $105.6 million stake, adding to the narrative that big, long‑term capital allocators are selectively stepping into the name. ^[37]
TradingView/Refinitiv reported CFO Claire McDonough’s Form 4 filing detailing her December share sales under a 10b5‑1 plan. ^[38]

Overlay all that on top of yesterday’s recall headline and last month’s earnings, and you get the tug‑of‑war currently playing out in the share price.

Key Risks and Catalysts to Watch Next

Looking ahead from December 4, 2025, several milestones could shift the RIVN story:

Autonomy & AI Day (December 11)
- Expected to showcase Rivian’s in‑house autonomy stack and broader AI strategy.
- RBC and other analysts will be watching for proof that software can be a scalable, profitable line of business, not just an exciting demo. ^[39]
R2 launch preparations and plant build‑out
- R2 remains on track for first‑half 2026 with validation builds planned before year‑end, and Rivian has expanded its Normal, Illinois facilities to support the program. ^[40]
- A new Georgia plant could eventually add 400,000 units of annual capacity, but also requires heavy upfront capex. ^[41]
Next earnings report (expected February 19, 2026)
- Investors will look for continued positive gross profit, progress on cost reductions, and any updated guidance on deliveries and cash burn. ^[42]
Policy and macro headlines
- Proposed changes to fuel‑economy rules, EV tax incentives and tariffs could rapidly alter the economics of Rivian’s business model. ^[43]

Bottom Line: Who Is Rivian Stock Really For Right Now?

As of 4 December 2025, Rivian stock is a classic high‑risk, high‑reward EV story:

Bullish arguments center on:
- rapid revenue growth and a move to positive gross profit,
- a powerful software and autonomy partnership with Volkswagen,
- a pipeline of more affordable R2/R3 models, and
- increasing interest from large institutions like Norges Bank.
Bearish arguments focus on:
- a share price that many models say is ahead of fundamentals,
- ongoing heavy cash burn and liquidity risk,
- recall and policy headlines that highlight execution and regulatory uncertainty, and
- a very wide spread of credible price targets, including 24/7 Wall St.’s $11.88 bearish one‑year view. ^[44]

Given that spread – roughly $10–$25 per share across serious forecasters – RIVN is best suited to investors who:

have a high tolerance for volatility and potential drawdowns,
are comfortable with long time horizons, and
see Rivian as a speculative bet on the long‑term EV and software‑defined vehicle transition, rather than a near‑term cash‑cow.

Important Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Stock investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.