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Rivian’s $5 Billion Georgia EV Megaplant: A Bold Gamble to Outdrive Tesla, Ford & More
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Rivian’s Stock Rockets: $5B EV Factory and Analyst Upgrades Spark a Rally

by
29 September 2025
  • Stock Price & Cap: ~$15.2 per share (Sept 29, 2025), Market Cap ~$18.5B [1] [2]. 52-week range: $9.50 – $17.15 [3].
  • Recent Performance: Up sharply in mid-Sept (e.g. +5.98% on Sept 26 [4]) but dipped ~2.6% on Sept 29. 1-year return ~+35%. Analysts note trading volatility around key news.
  • Q2 2025 Results: Revenue $1.303B (+12.5% Y/Y) [5]; net loss ~$1.1B (EPS -$0.97) [6]. Automotive gross margin remains negative. Production 5,979 vehicles; deliveries 10,661 in Q2 [7]. Strong cash cushion (~$7.5B end-Q2 after VW’s $1B investment) [8]. Company confirmed 2025 guidance of 40–46K vehicles and the R2 SUV launch (~$45K base) on schedule [9] [10].
  • Key Developments: Rivian broke ground on a $5B Georgia plant (2028 start; 400K capacity; 7,500 jobs by 2030) [11] [12]. Volkswagen added a $1B investment (June 2025) to fund a joint EV venture [13]. Rivian opened “Adventure Network” chargers for all EVs (first at Joshua Tree) and partnered on Illinois solar (agrivoltaics) to power its charging network [14] [15]. It is already building “hundreds” of pre-production R2 SUVs ahead of full launch in early 2026 [16]. On the other hand, Rivian faces setbacks: it recalled ~24K R1 pickup/SUVs for a software defect and is under NHTSA probe for ~17K delivery vans (seat-belt issue) [17].
  • EV Market & Competition: The U.S. EV market is cooling: EVs were ~7.4% of Q2 2025 auto sales [18], with Tesla still ~46% of EV volume [19]. Legacy OEMs (GM, Ford, Honda, VW) are expanding EVs too. Rivian competes with Tesla (Cybertruck), Ford (Lightning/F-150 EV), GM (Hummer EV) and others in trucks/SUVs, and by 2026 with mid-market R2 vs. Lucid, Nissan, etc. The pending end of U.S. EV tax credits (Sept 30, 2025) and looser fuel-economy penalties add headwinds [20] [21]. Rising tariffs (on batteries, etc.) will raise Rivian’s costs by “a couple thousand dollars” per vehicle [22]. Overall, investors watch whether Rivian can scale production fast enough amid these challenges.
  • Analyst Sentiment: Street consensus is neutral-to-cautious. The average 1-year price target is only ~$14 [23] (below today’s price). Goldman Sachs (analyst Mark Delaney) kept a Neutral rating but raised its target to $15 [24]. Mizuho (Vijay Rakesh) also stayed Neutral and nudged its target to $14 [25]. Overall, about 5 Buys, 16 Holds and 3 Sells (avg. “Hold”) [26]. Goldman’s and Cantor Fitzgerald’s latest notes highlight expected strong Q3 deliveries (Cantor forecasts ~15,675 cars, above consensus [27]). Some experts remain skeptical: CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently warned investors to “avoid buying Rivian now,” criticizing the high spending on the Georgia plant [28]. By contrast, other analysts see promise: one Nasdaq writer notes that Volkswagen’s investment “signals outside confidence in Rivian’s technology platform and future vehicle plans” [29]. GuruFocus’s model even pegs a one-year “fair value” of $20.86 (about 34% above current levels) [30], reflecting highly divergent views.
  • Forecasts (Short & Long Term): Near-term price forecasts vary. Some models see modest upside: for example, a short-term forecast suggests RIVN could reach the $16–17 range by early October (≈10% gain) before pulling back [31]. By year-end 2025, consensus targets are around $13–15, implying limited upside. StockAnalysis.com projects revenue growing from $5.40B in 2025 to $7.08B in 2026 (+31%) [32] [33], with EPS losses narrowing from -$2.71 to -$2.54 [34]. Longer term, Rivian must deliver on R2/R3 to drive profits. A bearish scenario (AI-driven) sees RIVN drifting to the low-$12s by late 2026 [35], while a bullish (GuruFocus) view sees mid-$20s in a few years. In short, most analysts expect only mild growth: the average 2026 target is in the mid-$12s [36]. Key catalysts that could lift the stock include beating delivery targets or launching new models profitably; conversely, missed guidance or deeper losses could push RIVN toward the low-$10s.

Sources: Latest stock data from investing and marketcap trackers [37] [38]; Rivian financials from Q2’25 report and analyst write-ups [39] [40]; news from Rivian releases and news outlets [41] [42] [43]; expert commentary from analyst reports and media [44] [45] [46]. All figures and quotes cited as shown.

Rivian vs Lucid: Which EV Stock Will Skyrocket First?
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.automotivedive.com, 10. www.automotivedive.com, 11. techcrunch.com, 12. www.alphaspread.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.repairerdrivennews.com, 15. eletric-vehicles.com, 16. eletric-vehicles.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. caredge.com, 19. caredge.com, 20. www.automotivedive.com, 21. www.cbtnews.com, 22. www.automotivedive.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.gurufocus.com, 25. www.gurufocus.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. eletric-vehicles.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.gurufocus.com, 31. coincodex.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. coincodex.com, 36. coincodex.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. companiesmarketcap.com, 39. www.nasdaq.com, 40. www.automotivedive.com, 41. techcrunch.com, 42. www.alphaspread.com, 43. eletric-vehicles.com, 44. www.gurufocus.com, 45. www.investing.com, 46. www.nasdaq.com

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Marcin Frąckiewicz Latest posts

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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