December 10, 2025 — U.S. markets closed
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) ended Wednesday’s regular session almost flat, but its latest monthly metrics and fresh analyst calls are already shaping the narrative for Thursday’s open.
The stock slipped 0.04% to close at $135.66, trading between roughly $133.43 and $137.46 on volume a little above 16 million shares. [1] In after-hours trading, HOOD drifted lower to about $135.02 (‑0.47%) by 6:00 p.m. ET, suggesting a slightly cautious first reaction as investors digest the company’s November 2025 operating update. [2]
Despite today’s modest move, Robinhood remains one of 2025’s standout stories: over the past year, the stock is up roughly 260%, according to Investing.com and multiple research notes, cementing its status as one of the market’s top momentum names. [3] A new Motley Fool piece published today pegs the three‑year return around 1,500%, underscoring just how violently the stock has re‑rated since its post‑IPO slump. [4]
Below is a breakdown of what moved after the bell on December 10, 2025, and what traders and longer‑term investors should watch before the December 11 open.
1. The headline after the bell: November 2025 monthly metrics
At 4:05 p.m. ET, just after the closing bell, Robinhood released its November 2025 operating data, giving Wall Street a high‑frequency look at customer growth, assets and trading activity. [5]
Key points from the company’s own release and early third‑party summaries: [6]
- Funded customers
- 26.9 million at the end of November
- Down ~130,000 month‑over‑month but up ~2.1 million year‑over‑year
- The monthly decline was driven by the required escheatment of ~280,000 low‑balance accounts; without this one‑off cleanup, funded customers would have grown by ~150,000 in November.
- Total platform assets
- $325 billion, down 5% vs. October but up 67% vs. November 2024.
- Net deposits
- $7.1 billion in November, equal to about 25% annualized growth versus October assets.
- $70.2 billion in net deposits over the last 12 months, implying 36% annual growth versus November 2024 asset levels.
- Trading volumes (November vs. October, and year‑over‑year)
- Equity notional volume: $201.5B (‑37% MoM, +37% YoY)
- Options contracts: 193.2M (‑28% MoM, +24% YoY)
- Crypto notional volume: $28.6B (‑12% MoM, ‑19% YoY)
- $12.0B via the Robinhood app (‑14% MoM, ‑66% YoY)
- $16.6B via Bitstamp (‑11% MoM)
- Event contracts: 3.0B traded (+20% MoM) — the only category growing sequentially.
- Balance‑sheet and yield metrics
- Margin balances: $16.8B (+2% MoM, +147% YoY)
- Total cash sweep balances: $32.5B (‑5% MoM, +23% YoY), including the wind‑down of a non‑Gold cash sweep product that moved ~$700M to customer free credit balances.
- Securities lending revenue: $34M (‑43% MoM, +48% YoY).
The big picture: November marks a cool‑down from the record October and Q3 trading frenzy, especially in equities, options and crypto, but year‑over‑year growth in assets, net deposits and leverage (margin) remains very strong. [7]
For tomorrow’s open, the key question is how the market weighs:
- The sequential drop in trading volumes and funded accounts, versus
- The structural story of rising assets, sticky deposits, and an expanding margin and event‑contracts business.
2. How the stock traded today — and why it matters
From a pure tape perspective:
- Regular session (Dec 10, 2025):
- Close: $135.66
- Change: ‑0.05 (‑0.04%)
- Day’s range: $133.43 – $137.46
- One‑year performance: +258.5%. [8]
- After hours (as of ~6 p.m. ET):
- Last trade: $135.02 (‑0.47% vs. close). [9]
Valuation is where things get controversial:
- Robinhood currently trades on a trailing P/E in the mid‑ to high‑50s, a price‑to‑sales ratio near 29, and price‑to‑book above 14, levels GuruFocus notes are close to five‑year highs. [10]
- GuruFocus also flags a beta near 3.9, underscoring how volatile HOOD can be compared with the broader market. [11]
In other words, today’s tiny price move sits on top of an extremely stretched multiple and a huge 2025 rally. Even small changes in sentiment around growth, crypto, or prediction markets can translate into outsized price swings.
3. Wall Street’s December 10 verdict: target cuts, “Buy” ratings and a big valuation split
Several key pieces of research and analysis hit on December 10, 2025, giving fresh context for Thursday’s session:
Bank of America trims its target but stays bullish
- BofA Securities maintained a “Strong Buy” on HOOD but cut its 12‑month price target from $166 to $154 today. [12]
- Based on tonight’s ~$135 share price, that new target implies roughly 13–14% upside.
BofA’s move fits into a broader pattern: analysts still like the growth story, but a lot of that optimism is already in the price.
Consensus forecasts: upside, downside, or both?
Different data providers paint subtly different pictures:
- StockAnalysis:
- Compiles 23–28 analysts with an average rating of “Buy”. [13]
- Shows an average 12‑month target around $119–120, which actually implies low double‑digit downside from current levels, even though the label is “Buy”.
- GuruFocus:
- Simply Wall St:
- Highlights a consensus target around $113, with a low of $50 and a high of $160, again suggesting downside vs. today’s price and wide disagreement about what HOOD is actually worth. [16]
The theme: Wall Street broadly agrees Robinhood is a growth winner, but disagrees sharply on what investors should pay for it. That split is part of what will make tomorrow’s open important — any new datapoint can nudge the consensus one way or the other.
4. Why the growth story still excites the bulls
Today’s short‑term wobble sits on top of blockbuster fundamentals:
Q3 2025: a blowout quarter
In early November, Robinhood reported record Q3 2025 results: [17]
- Total net revenue doubled year‑over‑year to $1.27 billion.
- Transaction‑based revenue jumped 129% to $730 million, driven by:
- Crypto revenue of $268M (up over 300% YoY)
- Options revenue of $304M (up 50% YoY)
- Equities revenue of $86M (up 132% YoY).
- Net income rose 271% to $556M, with diluted EPS up 259% to $0.61.
- Funded customers grew 10% YoY to 26.8M, while total platform assets surged 119% to $333B.
- Robinhood Gold subscribers climbed 77% YoY to 3.9M, driving more stable subscription revenue.
Q3 also marked the coming‑of‑age of two key growth engines:
- Prediction markets and event contracts – which more than doubled sequentially to 2.3B contracts in Q3, then reached 2.5B contracts in October and 3.0B in November. [18]
- Global and crypto expansion – including Bitstamp and new futures products in Europe, which helped power the surge in crypto and derivatives revenues. [19]
2025 performance: from meme broker to multi‑line fintech
Several pieces published today and in recent days reinforce the idea that Robinhood is no longer just a “meme trading app”:
- A MarketMinute/Chronicle Journal feature notes that HOOD has delivered about 244% year‑to‑date returns and 263% one‑year total shareholder return, tying much of that performance to the boom in prediction markets on the platform. [20]
- Investor’s Business Daily names Robinhood its “Stock of the Day”, pointing out a 260% 2025 rally and calling out HOOD as near an “early buy point” from a technical standpoint. [21]
- A detailed Gotrade/HeygoTrade outlook emphasises:
- 268% share‑price gains in 2025,
- A 100% jump in total revenue in the latest quarter vs. a year earlier, and
- A P/E around 56, which the report characterises as a premium valuation that requires Robinhood to keep delivering “phenomenal” growth to avoid a correction. [22]
Put simply, the bull case heading into 2026 is that Robinhood has become a profitable, multi‑product platform — spanning stocks, options, crypto, banking, prediction markets and international expansion — with explosive operating leverage if trading remains robust.
5. The bear case: expensive, volatile, and tied to speculative trading
Today’s data and commentary also highlight the risks that traders should consider before tomorrow’s open:
- Premium valuation & volatility
- GuruFocus and Gotrade both emphasise that HOOD’s P/E around the mid‑50s, P/S near 30 and P/B above 14 place the stock at a hefty premium to most financials and even many tech growth names. [23]
- A beta near 3.9 means the stock tends to move almost four times as much as the market — in both directions. [24]
- Sequential slowdown in activity
- November’s 37% MoM drop in equity volume and 28% MoM drop in options volume far exceed the 17% reduction in trading days (19 vs. 23), implying weaker daily activity than in October’s record month. [25]
- Crypto volumes also fell 12% sequentially and were down 19% year‑over‑year, highlighting how sensitive Robinhood remains to swings in digital‑asset sentiment. [26]
- Crypto dependency
- Gotrade’s analysis stresses that recent growth has been heavily powered by crypto trading, with crypto revenue up 300% in Q3 and HOOD’s share price moving in close lockstep with Bitcoin. [27]
- TS2.Tech and other outlets note that HOOD traded like a levered play on speculative risk appetite during November, when the stock still fell about 13% for the month despite stellar Q3 numbers, as crypto cooled. [28]
- Insider selling & governance questions
- GuruFocus flags 7.1M shares sold by insiders over the last three months and no insider buying, alongside an Altman Z‑Score in the “grey zone” and a Beneish M‑Score that warrants monitoring. [29]
- Long‑standing controversies around payment for order flow, best execution and prior SEC and FINRA fines remain part of the risk profile, as summarised in public filings and background reporting. [30]
For short‑term traders, this combination means that any disappointment or macro shock can trigger sharp profit‑taking after such a big run.
6. Sector backdrop: prediction markets, tokenized assets and regulation
The prediction‑market story isn’t just marketing spin — it’s part of a broader shift in the financial landscape:
- Today, Reuters reported that Gemini won CFTC approval to launch prediction markets in the U.S., noting that Gemini “joins other firms like Fanatics, Robinhood and Susquehanna” pushing into the space. [31]
- Regulators are simultaneously exploring how to handle blockchain‑based and tokenized stocks, with Fortune recently highlighting SEC plans that put Robinhood and Coinbase on one side of the debate and traditional Wall Street on the other. [32]
For HOOD, these developments are a double‑edged sword:
- They legitimise new revenue lines like prediction markets and tokenized assets.
- But they also raise the odds of tighter oversight, especially where prediction markets blur into online gambling — something several commentaries, including TS2.Tech’s December 5 update, have started to emphasise. TechStock²
7. What to watch before the December 11, 2025 open
Heading into Thursday’s session, here are the key things market participants are likely to focus on:
1. Pre‑market reaction to November metrics
Because the monthly metrics dropped after the closing bell, much of the institutional digestion will show up in:
- Pre‑market volume and price gaps in HOOD relative to Wednesday’s $135.66 close. [33]
- Trading in crypto majors overnight, which could color the mood given Robinhood’s heavy crypto sensitivity. [34]
Watch whether traders focus more on:
- The headline declines in volumes and customers, or
- The context of strong year‑over‑year growth and robust net deposits.
2. Follow‑through from Fed and macro headlines
A Nasdaq morning note today framed pre‑market action as “wait & see” ahead of the latest Federal Reserve decision, underlining that rate expectations are still a major driver for high‑multiple growth stocks like HOOD. [35]
By tomorrow’s open, markets will be processing:
- The Fed’s latest rate path and rhetoric,
- Moves in Treasury yields and the dollar, and
- Risk‑on appetite in tech and crypto‑linked names more broadly.
3. Technical levels and momentum
Because HOOD is now deeply embedded in momentum and swing‑trading strategies:
- IBD’s “Stock of the Day” write‑up flags the stock as near an early buy point, so how it trades around recent highs in the high‑$130s to near $140 may matter for trend followers. [36]
- After a 13% drop in November and a rebound into early December, some short‑term players may see $130ish as a rough line in the sand for the current uptrend, while others may look to lock in profits above that level. [37]
4. New analyst notes and valuation chatter
Today’s BofA target cut to $154 is unlikely to be the last word. Other firms may:
- Reiterate existing Buy or Overweight ratings with updated language around the November slowdown.
- Nudge targets lower to reflect the new base level of activity.
Sites like StockAnalysis, MarketBeat, Zacks and GuruFocus already catalogue a wide spread of targets (roughly $47 to $180), so any fresh revisions could nudge consensus expectations into Friday and beyond. [38]
5. Crypto and prediction‑market headlines
Finally, keep an eye on:
- Crypto price action overnight, given Q3’s 300%+ surge in crypto revenue. [39]
- Any follow‑up coverage of today’s Gemini prediction‑market approval and how it frames competition and regulatory expectations for Robinhood’s own event‑contracts hub. [40]
8. Bottom line: a market‑moving test of a high‑flying stock
After the bell on December 10, 2025, Robinhood delivered a “mixed but still strong” monthly update:
- Short‑term trading activity cooled from October’s frenzy,
- Structural metrics — net deposits, platform assets, margin, event contracts — remain powerful, and
- The stock still trades at lofty valuation multiples after a year of 250%+ gains. [41]
For Thursday’s open, the battleground is clear:
- Bulls will argue that November proves Robinhood can sustain high profitability, growing assets and new product lines even as trading intensity normalises.
- Bears will focus on the sharp sequential drop in volumes, premium valuation, heavy crypto exposure and ongoing regulatory and governance risks.
Whichever side gains the upper hand in pre‑market and early‑session trading on December 11 will likely set the tone for HOOD into the year’s final stretch.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.fool.com, 5. www.globenewswire.com, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. www.gurufocus.com, 12. www.gurufocus.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.gurufocus.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. simplywall.st, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.heygotrade.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. www.gurufocus.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.globenewswire.com, 27. www.heygotrade.com, 28. www.fool.com, 29. www.gurufocus.com, 30. en.wikipedia.org, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. fortune.com, 33. www.globenewswire.com, 34. www.heygotrade.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. www.investors.com, 37. www.fool.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. www.nasdaq.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.globenewswire.com
