Robinhood (HOOD) Plunges 9% on Weak November Trading Data: What to Know Before the December 12, 2025 Open

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) just delivered one of its sharpest single‑day pullbacks of 2025. On Thursday, December 11, the stock closed at $123.38, down 9.05% on the day, after the company released November operating metrics showing steep month‑over‑month drops in trading activity and a rare decline in client assets. ^[1]

Despite the selloff, HOOD remains up well over 200% year to date, reflecting a spectacular run driven by booming retail activity, record profitability and new products such as prediction markets. ^[2] Early after‑hours trading on Thursday showed a modest bounce, with shares ticking up to around $124.21 (+0.7%) shortly after the close. ^[3]

Here’s a detailed look at what happened after the bell on December 11, 2025, the key headlines and forecasts that hit the tape that day, and what traders and investors should watch before the U.S. market opens on Friday, December 12.

1. How Robinhood Stock Traded on December 11

Price action

Open: $131.78
Intraday low: $122.53
Close: $123.38 (‑9.05%)
Volume: ~43.6 million shares, roughly double recent averages. ^[4]

According to intraday data, HOOD was already weak in Thursday’s pre‑market, changing hands near $131.81, about 2.8% below Wednesday’s close of $135.66, before selling pressure accelerated after the open. ^[5]

StockAnalysis shows that in early after‑hours trading the shares recovered slightly to about $124.21 (+0.67% vs. the close), suggesting some bargain‑hunting but no dramatic reversal so far. ^[6]

Bigger picture

Over the last six months, Robinhood is up close to 90%, and up roughly 250%+ in 2025 depending on the measurement window. ^[7]
The stock’s 52‑week range runs from about $29.66 to $153.86, putting Thursday’s close roughly 20% below the recent high but many multiples above the lows. ^[8]
HOOD now carries a market capitalization around $122 billion and trades at about 56x trailing earnings, with a beta well above 2, underscoring how volatile the name has become. ^[9]

In other words: Thursday’s nearly 9% slide is large, but not unusual for a stock that, by Finviz’s count, has recorded dozens of 5%+ daily moves over the last year. ^[10]

2. November Metrics: What Spooked the Market

The immediate trigger for the selloff was Robinhood’s November 2025 monthly performance snapshot, released late Wednesday and dissected by Wall Street throughout Thursday. Benzinga, TipRanks, Zacks (via Nasdaq) and others all highlighted the same core message: sequential weakness across almost every legacy trading line, paired with a small but psychologically important dip in client assets. ^[11]

2.1 Sharp month‑over‑month declines in trading volumes

Key November figures vs. October:

Equity trading:
- Notional volume: $201.5 billion
- Change: ‑37% month over month, but higher than November 2024. ^[12]
Options trading:
- Volume: 193.2 million contracts
- Change: ‑28% month over month, still up double digits year over year. ^[13]
Crypto trading:
- Notional volume: $28.6 billion
- Change: ‑12% vs. October and lower than a year ago. Roughly $12 billion ran through the core Robinhood app, with about $16.6 billion executed via Bitstamp. ^[14]

TipRanks summed up the equity/options/crypto trio as a “sharp drop” in trading volumes that left investors questioning how sustainable recent earnings momentum will be if activity normalizes. ^[15]

2.2 First decline in client assets since February

Perhaps more concerning for long‑only shareholders: assets under custody (AUC) slipped for the first time in months.

Client assets at November 30: roughly $325 billion, down about 5% from October and the first monthly decline since February 2025. ^[16]

The drop reflects both the cooler markets in November – particularly in crypto – and the lower trading volumes. Bitcoin, for example, has been choppy and recently fell back below $90,000 after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, weighing on many crypto‑linked stocks, including Robinhood. ^[17]

2.3 Funded accounts down, but story is more nuanced

Robinhood ended November with about 26.9 million funded accounts, down roughly 130,000 from October. ^[18]

However, management attributed that entire decline — plus some — to a regulatory clean‑up:

The firm escheated about 280,000 dormant, low‑balance accounts, as required under state rules for inactive assets.
Without that process, funded accounts would have grown by around 150,000 in November, and they still sit above last year’s level. ^[19]

So while the headline “funded accounts down month‑over‑month” hit sentiment, the underlying customer trend remains modestly positive.

2.4 Deposits, event contracts and margin are still growing

Beneath the surface, several metrics stayed strong or even accelerated:

Net deposits:
- November: $7.1 billion, Robinhood’s third‑best month of 2025, about 27% above October.
- Trailing 12‑month net deposits: around $70.2 billion, implying roughly 36% annualized asset growth. ^[20]
Event contracts / prediction markets:
- About 3 billion event contracts traded in November.
- +20% vs. October and roughly +500% year over year, making prediction markets a major new growth engine. ^[21]
Margin and securities lending:
- Customer margin borrowing climbed to $16.8 billion, up 2% month over month and more than double year‑ago levels.
- Securities‑lending revenue hit $34 million in November — down 43% vs. October but up 48% year over year, underscoring how Robinhood is monetizing its large asset base even when trading slows. ^[22]

In short: the November snapshot was mixed, not disastrous. But after a parabolic year‑to‑date rally, markets focused on the sequential slowdown and sold first, asked questions later.

3. Regulatory Pressure: Connecticut’s Cease‑and‑Desist Order

While November metrics grabbed the headlines, another December storyline is adding to perceived risk around HOOD: state‑level scrutiny of prediction markets and “sports event contracts.”

On December 2, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease‑and‑desist orders to Robinhood Derivatives, Crypto.com and Kalshi, accusing them of running unlicensed online gambling in the state via sports‑related prediction contracts. ^[23]

The order alleges that Robinhood’s sports event contracts amount to illegal sports wagering under Connecticut law and instructs the company to stop advertising or offering those products to Connecticut residents. ^[24]

Local and national coverage has highlighted several alleged gaps regulators see in current prediction‑market offerings, including:

Inadequate controls to prevent minors and excluded players from participating
Insufficient safeguards against insider trading or suspicious betting patterns
Unclear or inconsistent contract rules and payout procedures ^[25]

3.1 Industry fights back – and Robinhood joins a new coalition

In response, major prediction‑market platforms have begun to organize politically. On December 11, industry leaders Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase and Underdog announced the formation of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, a national group aiming to preserve federally regulated, CFTC‑supervised event contracts and resist efforts to classify them as state‑regulated gambling products. ^[26]

The coalition argues that:

Prediction markets provide valuable information and hedging tools.
They should remain under federal commodities regulation, not a patchwork of state gaming laws.
Recent state actions, including Connecticut’s, risk stifling innovation and investor access. ^[27]

For HOOD shareholders heading into Friday’s open, the takeaway is that regulatory risk around event contracts is rising, but so is the industry’s willingness to push back and seek clear national standards.

4. Wall Street’s View After the Selloff: Ratings and Price Targets

Despite Thursday’s drop, Wall Street remains broadly bullish on Robinhood — but the selloff has highlighted how crowded the trade has become after a huge run.

4.1 Latest analyst moves on December 10–11

Several updated notes landed just before and during Thursday’s selloff:

Bank of America Securities
- Maintained a “Buy” rating
- Cut 12‑month price target from $166 to $154 on December 10 ^[28]
Cantor Fitzgerald
- Reiterated an “Overweight/Buy” rating
- Trimmed target from $155 to $152 on December 11 ^[29]
Needham
- Recently reiterated a “Buy” with a $145 target
- Emphasizes growth in prediction markets and crypto as long‑term drivers ^[30]

A GuruFocus summary of BofA’s move noted that, across 19 analysts, the average target price sits near $151, with a high of $180 and a low around $86, implying double‑digit upside vs. the price when that analysis was published. ^[31]

4.2 Consensus forecasts as of December 11

Different aggregators show slightly different numbers, but all agree that most analysts are positive:

StockAnalysis.com
- Coverage: 21 analysts
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Average target:$119.33, actually 3% below Thursday’s close — implying some see the stock as fully valued after its big run
- Target range: $47–$180, median about $135 ^[32]
Benzinga analyst‑ratings dashboard
- Coverage: 25 analysts
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Average target: roughly $123.09 — very close to the current price
- High target: $180; low: $47 ^[33]

What stands out is the spread between bulls and bears: top targets imply 40–45% upside, while the lowest envision 60%+ downside from here. That wide band mirrors the stock’s high beta and the market’s divided views on how durable Robinhood’s 2025 boom really is.

5. Under the Hood: Profit Momentum, Expansion and Big‑Money Flows

Thursday’s decline came after a string of highly positive fundamental and strategic developments in 2025.

5.1 Earnings: “Fintech juggernaut” vibes

In early November, Robinhood reported third‑quarter results that crushed expectations:

Net profit: about $556 million, nearly 4x the prior year
EPS:$0.61 vs. analyst expectations around $0.53
Transaction‑based revenue: more than doubled to $730 million, with
- Equities revenue up 132%
- Crypto revenue up roughly 300%
- Options revenue up about 50% year over year ^[34]

Reuters quoted Zacks strategist David Bartosiak describing Robinhood as “turning into a fintech juggernaut,” with customers still highly engaged despite market worries about bubbles. ^[35]

Management also said Q4 was off to a strong start in October, with record monthly trading volumes across multiple product lines — which makes November’s pullback feel more like a cooling from a very hot level than a complete reversal. ^[36]

5.2 Expansion into Indonesia and global crypto

On December 8, Robinhood announced plans to acquire Indonesian brokerage Buana Capital Sekuritas and licensed crypto trader Pedagang Aset Kripto, marking its entry into one of Southeast Asia’s most important capital and crypto markets. ^[37]

Key points from that announcement:

Indonesia has 19+ million capital market investors and 17 million crypto traders, a huge addressable base.
The deals are expected to close in H1 2026, pending regulatory approval.
Robinhood joined the S&P 500 index earlier this year and has also launched prediction markets, underlining its ambitions to be a global, multi‑asset platform, not just a U.S. stock app. ^[38]

5.3 Institutionals in, insiders trimming

Two fresh 13F‑related stories on December 11 spotlighted Robinhood’s ownership structure:

State Street Corp
- Increased its stake by 9.2% in Q2, now holding about 15.9 million shares, or 1.79% of the company, worth roughly $1.49 billion at the time of filing. ^[39]
Ardsley Advisory Partners
- Disclosed a new position of 26,000 shares, worth about $2.4 million. ^[40]

MarketBeat notes that roughly 93% of HOOD’s float is now held by institutional investors, underscoring how widely owned the stock has become among professional money managers. ^[41]

At the same time, insiders have used the rally to take profits:

CEO Vladimir Tenev sold about 750,000 shares at an average near $139.73, totaling roughly $105 million. ^[42]
Other executives, including Daniel Gallagher and Steven Quirk, have also sold significant blocks.
In aggregate, insiders have sold around 3.7 million shares (≈$476 million) in the last three months, yet still own about 14.5% of the company. ^[43]

For Friday’s open, investors will continue weighing this mix of strong institutional demand and ongoing insider selling when deciding whether Thursday’s dip is a buying opportunity or a sign of exhaustion.

5.4 ARK Invest and the long‑term bull case

High‑profile growth investor Cathie Wood and ARK Invest have been consistent buyers of HOOD during 2025:

ARK disclosed buying $21.3 million of Robinhood shares in October across its ARKK and ARKW ETFs, adding roughly 167,000 shares. ^[44]
On December 3, ARK added another 1,951 Robinhood shares (about $245,000) to the ARKK ETF, alongside larger purchases of Coinbase and Bullish. ^[45]

These incremental buys reinforce the thesis that high‑conviction growth investors still see Robinhood as a long‑term winner in crypto, prediction markets and retail brokerage, even after its big run.

6. Key Things to Watch Before the December 12, 2025 Market Open

Heading into Friday’s session, here are the main factors traders and investors are likely to focus on.

6.1 Extended‑hours and pre‑market price action

Early Thursday after hours, HOOD ticked up to around $124.2, a modest rebound from the $123.4 close. ^[46]
The big question for Friday: Does the stock stabilize above Thursday’s low near $122.5, or does selling resume once liquidity returns? ^[47]

Given HOOD’s high beta and frequent 5%+ intraday swings, pre‑market moves on relatively light volume may not be decisive, but they’ll set the tone.

6.2 Reaction to the November metrics narrative

Markets now have a full day to digest the nuance in November’s report:

Yes, trading volumes and assets slipped sequentially.
But deposits, event contracts, and margin balances remained strong, and the funded‑account decline largely reflects a one‑time regulatory clean‑up rather than customer churn. ^[48]

If more commentary emerges emphasizing the underlying strengths — or if management provides additional color — the market may re‑rate Thursday’s move as an overreaction.

6.3 Any new analyst notes or rating changes

So far, major firms have maintained bullish ratings while trimming price targets modestly. ^[49]

Ahead of Friday’s open, watch for:

Fresh notes from firms that haven’t opined yet on the November data
Any downgrades from Buy/Overweight to Hold or Sell
Updated target prices that could reset expectations for upside from current levels

Because HOOD is widely owned, even one high‑profile downgrade can influence sentiment.

6.4 Regulatory headlines on prediction markets

Connecticut’s cease‑and‑desist order and the formation of the Coalition for Prediction Markets turned prediction markets into a fast‑moving regulatory story this week. ^[50]

Before Friday’s open, traders will be watching for:

Any further state‑level actions (supportive or punitive)
Legal updates on challenges to Connecticut’s order
Statements from federal regulators clarifying how they view event contracts

If the narrative shifts toward regulatory clarity and coexistence, the overhang on HOOD’s event‑contract business could ease.

6.5 Macro backdrop and crypto prices

Robinhood’s fortunes are tightly linked to risk‑on sentiment and crypto asset prices:

The Fed’s recent rate cut has boosted volatility in currencies and digital assets.
Bitcoin’s swings around the $90,000 mark have already coincided with notable moves in HOOD this month. ^[51]

If crypto stabilizes or rebounds overnight, it could help HOOD find a floor. Conversely, another leg down in digital assets could reinforce the narrative that November’s slower crypto volumes were the start of a broader cooling.

6.6 Technical levels and positioning

From a purely technical perspective (not a recommendation), several levels are likely on traders’ screens:

$122–$123: Thursday’s closing neighborhood and intraday low zone — immediate support. ^[52]
$130–$135: recent congestion area and former support; could now act as resistance on any bounce. ^[53]
$150–$155: the neighborhood of the 52‑week highs and several bullish analyst targets. ^[54]

Positioning is critical here: after such a strong year, many funds are sitting on large gains in HOOD. Some may choose to lock in profits into year‑end volatility, while others may see a 9% pullback as a chance to add.

7. Bottom Line

After the bell on December 11, 2025, Robinhood finds itself at a crossroads:

The headline numbers — a 9% stock drop, steep month‑over‑month volume declines and a 5% dip in client assets — clearly rattled the market. ^[55]
Yet the underlying fundamentals — strong profitability, growing net deposits, booming event‑contract volume, and ongoing international expansion — still support the longer‑term growth story many analysts and institutional investors are betting on. ^[56]
Regulatory risk around prediction markets, particularly in states like Connecticut, has become a new and important variable that the market must now price in. ^[57]

Heading into the December 12 market open, traders will be watching whether HOOD can hold above Thursday’s lows, how Wall Street frames the November data in follow‑up research, and whether any fresh regulatory or crypto headlines hit the tape overnight.

References