Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) ended Wednesday’s session lower, then edged slightly higher in early after-hours trading—while headlines about sports-focused prediction markets and an expanded AI roadmap kept the company in the spotlight.
At the 4:00 p.m. ET close on Dec. 17, 2025, HOOD finished at $115.80, down about 3.0% on the day, after trading between roughly $115.60 and $124.69. [1]
By 5:00 p.m. ET, HOOD was $115.98 in after-hours trading (a modest +0.16% versus the close). [2]
The broader tape didn’t help risk appetite: U.S. stocks fell again Wednesday, with the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Nasdaq down 1.8%, and the Dow down 0.5% at the close. [3]
Below is what moved Robinhood stock today—and what investors and traders should have on their radar before the U.S. market opens Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025.
HOOD after the bell: the numbers that mattered
Regular session (Dec. 17):
- Close: $115.80 (about -3.0%) [4]
- Open: about $120.97
- Day range: about $115.60 to $124.69 [5]
- Volume: ~35.8M shares [6]
After-hours (as of 5:00 p.m. ET):
- After-hours price: $115.98 (slightly above the close) [7]
- After-hours range (so far): $115.50 to $116.50 [8]
One useful way to frame Wednesday: HOOD opened strong, traded as high as the mid-$120s, and then slid into the close near the day’s lows—a classic “risk-off” feel for a stock that has been a high-beta winner for much of 2025.
Today’s big story: Robinhood goes deeper into sports prediction markets
The core company-specific news flow today centered on Robinhood’s expansion of sports-related event contracts, pushing further into a fast-growing corner of “prediction markets.”
What Robinhood announced and rolled out
Reuters reported that Robinhood is adding sports-focused event contracts that let customers wager on individual pro football player performance—not just game outcomes—such as touchdowns and yardage. [9]
At the same time, Robinhood introduced “preset combos”—a packaged way to link multiple outcomes into a single contract that pays out only if all outcomes are correct. [10]
Robinhood’s own YES/NO event materials (reposted via Publicnow/MarketScreener) add more product detail:
- Preset Combos for individual pro football games (payout is typically $1 if all legs resolve correctly) [11]
- Custom Combos planned “early next year,” allowing users to combine up to ten outcomes across pro football games [12]
- Player contracts “starting today,” spanning categories like Anytime TD and passing/receiving/rushing yards, with more sports to follow [13]
Axios framed the strategy bluntly: Robinhood is betting that the future of retail investing increasingly resembles… betting, with 24/7 event markets across sports, politics, culture, and economics. [14]
Why prediction markets are suddenly a revenue narrative for Robinhood
Robinhood is not treating prediction markets as a novelty feature. It’s positioning them as a real growth engine.
From the YES/NO event materials, Robinhood says:
- Prediction markets have become its “fastest-growing product line by revenue ever” since launching late last year. [15]
- More than 1 million customers have traded roughly 11 billion contracts since debut. [16]
- The company has been upgrading market structure: limit orders, dollar-based trading, 24/7 access, and a live sports hub. [17]
Zooming out beyond Robinhood, Reuters cited a Keyrock/Dune data point showing how quickly the category is scaling: the monthly value of prediction-market trades has risen to over $13 billion, up from under $100 million in early 2024. [18]
That kind of growth rate is why analysts are trying to model prediction markets as something closer to a new “asset class” (or at least a new transaction stream) rather than a side product.
The AI angle: “Cortex” and portfolio “Digests” expand the pitch
Today’s story wasn’t only sports contracts. Robinhood is also pushing an expanded AI assistant narrative that aims to keep customers inside the app—learning, deciding, and transacting faster.
In its YES/NO event recap, Robinhood described a next-generation Robinhood Cortex experience intended to be embedded across the app. [19]
Key points Robinhood highlighted:
- Cortex responses are “sourced” from market data, analyst reports, and research (per the company’s description). [20]
- Users can use plain English to buy/sell, do research, explore event contracts, and adjust settings—while “keeping them in control.” [21]
- Rollout is expected to begin in Q1 of next year for Robinhood Gold subscribers; Gold is $5/month or $50/year. [22]
Axios added color from a demo, including prompts like finding “unfairly punished” stocks and even how to trade a specific football game—underscoring the “AI + markets + sports” convergence Robinhood is marketing. [23]
The takeaway for HOOD investors: Robinhood is working to turn engagement into transactions—and AI is being positioned as the interface that reduces friction between “reading” and “trading.”
The risk factor in today’s coverage: regulation and optics
The bullish story (new high-frequency products, higher engagement, more transaction revenue) comes with a clear counterweight: regulatory scrutiny and the optics of blending investing with wagering.
Reuters noted:
- Some critics argue event contracts resemble sports betting and may encourage speculative retail activity. [24]
- Industry participants emphasize that event contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). [25]
- Reuters also flagged that some state regulators are seeking tougher oversight as competition in the space heats up. [26]
This matters because Robinhood’s valuation increasingly reflects expectations that it can scale new transaction lines. If the rulebook tightens—or if distribution gets restricted in key jurisdictions—the growth curve could change quickly.
Today’s forecasts and analyst takes: price targets diverge, but “prediction markets” is the common thread
A notable feature of today’s HOOD coverage is how consistently “prediction markets” appears as a driver in analyst narratives—alongside the usual Robinhood pillars (options, crypto, interest income).
Mizuho: maintains Outperform, keeps $172 target; models a $300M run-rate
Investing.com reported Mizuho maintained an Outperform rating and $172 price target, saying Robinhood is on track for roughly a $300 million run-rate for prediction markets in Q4 and raising 2026–2027 revenue estimates by 6%–7%. [27]
The same report cited survey work suggesting Robinhood users may be more likely to fund prediction markets with “fresh money” than Coinbase users, which could matter for monetization. [28]
Truist: initiates coverage with Buy, $155 target
A separate analyst development: Truist initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $155 price target, according to a summary of the research note. [29]
“Consensus” targets: ~30% upside in one widely circulated roundup
A Nasdaq/Zacks-style roundup cited a mean price target around $155.39, with targets ranging from about $92 to $180, while also cautioning readers not to rely exclusively on price targets. [30]
Valuation check: the stock is priced like a winner
Another Nasdaq/Zacks analysis pointed out that HOOD’s performance has been robust and that the stock trades at a premium valuation versus its industry on a price-to-tangible-book basis—while also noting upward earnings estimate revisions in recent days. [31]
What to do with these “forecasts”: price targets are not guarantees; they’re scenario outputs. The useful signal is what analysts are anchoring to—right now, that’s (1) prediction markets scale, (2) trading intensity/engagement, and (3) whether Robinhood can keep innovating faster than regulation tightens.
What to know before the market opens tomorrow, Dec. 18, 2025
If you’re watching HOOD into Thursday’s open, tomorrow is likely to be shaped as much by macro volatility as by Robinhood-specific headlines.
1) CPI hits before the bell
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 18, alongside Real Earnings. [32]
One wrinkle that could matter for markets: BLS has warned that, due to a 2025 lapse in appropriations, it couldn’t collect some October CPI survey data and will not publish certain month-over-month changes where October data are missing. [33]
Why HOOD traders care: CPI can swing rate expectations, index futures, and volatility—conditions that often influence retail trading activity (and sentiment toward fintech brokers).
2) Jobless claims and Philly Fed also land in the same window
Investing.com’s economic preview also flags initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index as key releases for Thursday morning. [34]
Even if you’re focused on HOOD, clustered macro prints can move the entire market quickly—especially after several down sessions. [35]
3) Watch the “risk-on/risk-off” tell in the first 30 minutes
Given HOOD’s intraday reversal on Wednesday (high $120s to mid-$115s), Thursday’s early action may reflect whether traders are:
- rotating back into high-beta names, or
- continuing to de-risk into year-end.
4) Headlines on prediction markets and regulation can move fast
Because today’s HOOD narrative is closely tied to sports contracts and combos, any incremental headlines—especially around oversight—can hit sentiment quickly. Reuters explicitly highlighted the regulatory backdrop as competitors flood in. [36]
5) HOOD’s near-term “levels” traders are watching
Without turning this into charting, there are a few obvious reference points from recent closes:
- Support zone: around Wednesday’s low near $115.60 and the prior swing area near $115 [37]
- Resistance zone: the Wednesday high near $124.66–$124.69 [38]
- Context: HOOD has been volatile in December, sliding from a $135.66 close on Dec. 10 to $115.80 on Dec. 17. [39]
Bottom line for Thursday: the HOOD setup into the open
Robinhood stock is ending Dec. 17 with a clear “push-and-pull” narrative:
- Bull case (today’s headlines): prediction markets and sports “combos” widen Robinhood’s product surface area, AI (Cortex + Digests) aims to increase engagement and reduce friction, and analysts are actively modeling meaningful revenue upside tied to these products. [40]
- Bear case / risk case: the category invites more scrutiny, the investing-versus-betting optics are controversial, and HOOD remains sensitive to broad-market risk sentiment—especially heading into a major CPI print. [41]
Practical takeaway for the next 12–18 hours: don’t look at HOOD’s after-hours tick in isolation. The bigger driver into Thursday morning is likely to be the 8:30 a.m. ET macro cluster (CPI + claims + Philly Fed) and whether that re-prices risk across growth/fintech names. [42]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. public.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. public.com, 8. public.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.marketscreener.com, 12. www.marketscreener.com, 13. www.marketscreener.com, 14. www.axios.com, 15. www.marketscreener.com, 16. www.marketscreener.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.axios.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.gurufocus.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.bls.gov, 33. www.bls.gov, 34. www.investing.com, 35. apnews.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. stockanalysis.com, 40. www.marketscreener.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.bls.gov
