Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) finished Tuesday’s regular session higher and held onto those gains in after-hours trading as investors digested fresh Wall Street commentary tied to the company’s fast-growing prediction markets push—and positioned ahead of a high-profile Robinhood product keynote scheduled for later tonight.
Robinhood stock after the bell: latest price action
Robinhood shares closed Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025 at $119.40, up 3.59% on the day. In after-hours trading around 5:13 p.m. ET, the stock was quoted near $119.99 (about +0.49% after hours). [1]
During the regular session, HOOD traded in a wide range—roughly $115.76 to $120.70—after opening near $116.70, with volume around 20.8 million shares. [2]
That kind of intraday swing underscores a key point for anyone watching Robinhood into Wednesday: HOOD remains a high-beta, headline-sensitive stock that can react quickly to analyst notes, product news, crypto sentiment, and regulatory signals.
Why Robinhood jumped today: prediction markets optimism takes center stage
The dominant theme in today’s coverage was prediction markets—and specifically whether Robinhood can turn its “yes/no” style event contracts into a durable revenue stream without running into regulatory roadblocks.
Mizuho reiterates Outperform, keeps $172 target, lifts forward revenue estimates
A widely circulated catalyst today was renewed bullish commentary from Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev, who reiterated an Outperform rating and a $172 price target. The note highlighted prediction markets as a meaningful growth engine and suggested Robinhood could be tracking toward a $300 million run-rate from the segment—strong enough to justify raising 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts by about 6% to 7%. [3]
Mizuho also pointed to survey work implying Robinhood users may be funding prediction market activity with a relatively high share of “fresh money” (as opposed to reallocating from other holdings)—a nuance bulls see as important for incremental growth rather than internal cannibalization. [4]
Truist initiates coverage: Buy rating and $155 target
Adding to the constructive tone, Truist initiated coverage of Robinhood with a Buy rating and a $155 price target, according to TheFly’s report carried by TipRanks. [5]
New coverage initiations don’t always move a $100B+ company on their own, but in a stock like HOOD—where sentiment and narrative matter—fresh “Buy” framing can reinforce momentum, especially when it aligns with a hot theme like prediction markets.
Tonight’s big catalyst: Robinhood “YES/NO” keynote (AI + prediction markets)
A second reason HOOD is in focus after the bell: Robinhood is hosting “Robinhood Presents: YES/NO” tonight, a keynote event billed as a showcase for the company’s latest AI innovations and prediction markets features.
According to event details distributed via Publicnow/MarketScreener, the keynote is scheduled to begin at 6:00 p.m. PT / 9:00 p.m. ET and will be livestreamed in the Robinhood app, on X, and on YouTube. [6]
What investors will be listening for
Even if the event is positioned as a product showcase, the market typically cares about a few very specific items:
1) Monetization clarity
- Are prediction markets being framed as a niche engagement product—or as a scaled revenue line with clear unit economics?
- Any updates that tie new features to revenue (take rates, spreads, routing economics, subscription attachment) can matter more than feature lists.
2) Market expansion signals
- Will Robinhood broaden event contracts (more categories, more jurisdictions, more partner integrations)?
- Are there hints of expansion into adjacent areas (some analysts have floated “sports betting adjacency” themes, though wording and regulatory posture matter greatly)?
3) Risk disclosures and compliance posture
- In prediction markets, the market’s “growth story” is inseparable from the “regulatory story.”
- Any explicit mention of frameworks, licensing, or how Robinhood designs contracts to comply across states could influence how investors handicap long-term upside.
The regulatory backdrop investors can’t ignore
While Wall Street is increasingly treating prediction markets as a major fintech growth lane, regulators and state agencies are paying close attention—especially where products resemble sports wagering.
Connecticut cease-and-desist: a reminder of the legal gray zones
Earlier this month, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) said it issued cease-and-desist orders related to “unlicensed online gambling,” including to Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, specifically referencing sports event contracts and warning consumers that “a prediction market wager is not an investment.” [7]
Wider legal pressure around sports-related event contracts
Separately, ongoing legal fights around prediction markets have continued in multiple states. For example, Reuters reported last week that Massachusetts sought to block Kalshi from operating a sports-prediction market, reflecting the broader state-level pushback risk around sports outcomes. [8]
For HOOD shareholders, the takeaway is straightforward: prediction markets are a growth driver—but also a headline risk. Product announcements that expand the segment can boost the bull case, but they can also raise investors’ sensitivity to regulatory developments.
Bigger-picture tailwinds: why prediction markets are getting so much attention
The reason this theme has become so market-moving is the sheer scale of growth across the broader prediction markets ecosystem. The Financial Times reported that monthly bets in prediction markets grew dramatically in 2024, citing figures that rose from under $100 million to over $13 billion (tracking Dune and Keyrock data).
Robinhood’s bulls see the company as well-positioned to capture that momentum because it already sits at the intersection of:
- retail trading behavior,
- options-style product adoption,
- and a user base comfortable with event-driven speculation.
Analyst forecast roundup: where Wall Street sees HOOD next
Because HOOD has been volatile, “consensus” targets vary depending on the data provider and how frequently they refresh coverage lists. Still, the overall picture remains broadly constructive:
- MarketBeat shows an average 12-month price target around $136.32 (with targets ranging from $47 to $180). [9]
- StockAnalysis shows an average target around $119.48 (also showing a wide low-to-high range). [10]
- MarketWatch lists an average target price around $154.80 with an “Overweight” average recommendation. [11]
- TipRanks shows an average target around $148.74. [12]
What matters for Wednesday isn’t which single number is “right,” but the practical implication: targets are dispersed, reflecting uncertainty around how durable the new revenue streams will be—and how much regulatory friction will cap them.
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025)
Here are the most important items to track between now and the opening bell:
1) Reaction to the YES/NO keynote (tonight)
Because the event begins at 9:00 p.m. ET, any market reaction is more likely to show up in:
- overnight sentiment and media coverage, and then
- pre-market trading Wednesday (rather than immediately in conventional after-hours). [13]
Watch for:
- whether Robinhood announces anything that changes forward revenue expectations,
- whether analysts publish rapid reaction notes overnight,
- and whether the tone is “incremental improvements” vs. “category-defining product leap.”
2) Macro risk: Fed minutes and high-profile Fed speakers on Dec. 17
Robinhood tends to trade like a risk-on fintech name—so rates, volatility, and macro sentiment can matter as much as company-specific headlines.
On Dec. 17, the Federal Reserve’s calendar lists:
- 8:15 a.m. discussion by Governor Christopher Waller (“Economic Outlook”)
- 2:00 p.m. release of FOMC minutes for the Dec. 9–10 meeting [14]
If markets interpret the minutes or commentary as more hawkish (or more cautious about cuts), high-multiple fintech and trading-platform stocks can react quickly.
3) Market structure tailwind: the push toward longer trading hours
The broader industry is also moving toward extended access. Reuters reported that Nasdaq is preparing filings aimed at 23-hour trading sessions, five days a week, starting in the second half of 2026, as Wall Street explores a more “nearly 24/5” future. [15]
That doesn’t change Robinhood’s fundamentals overnight—but it reinforces why trading platforms are racing to expand product breadth and engagement outside the traditional 9:30-to-4 window.
4) Watch crypto sentiment (even when the headline is “not crypto”)
Even on a day dominated by prediction markets and AI messaging, Robinhood’s business remains sensitive to broader risk appetite, which often shows up first in crypto. Reuters noted cryptocurrencies were under pressure Tuesday amid cautious global risk sentiment. [16]
If crypto rebounds overnight, it can lift sentiment around Robinhood’s transaction-driven revenue narrative; if it weakens, it can cap upside—even after positive company news.
Bottom line for HOOD heading into Wednesday
Robinhood stock is ending Dec. 16 with a clear narrative driver—prediction markets momentum—supported by bullish analyst framing and a high-visibility keynote catalyst still ahead tonight. [17]
But the “what to watch” list for Wednesday is just as clear:
- product execution (what Robinhood actually announces and how analysts interpret it),
- regulatory overhang around event contracts (especially sports-related),
- and macro sensitivity (Fed speakers + FOMC minutes). [18]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. ng.investing.com, 4. ng.investing.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. au.marketscreener.com, 7. portal.ct.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. au.marketscreener.com, 14. www.federalreserve.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. ng.investing.com, 18. portal.ct.gov
