Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is back in focus on December 16, 2025, with shares rebounding after last week’s volatility and a dense cluster of catalysts converging around the company’s fastest-growing business lines: prediction markets, product expansion, and the push toward near-24-hour equity trading.
As of mid-session Tuesday, HOOD stock was trading around $120 per share, up roughly 4%–5% on the day, giving Robinhood a market capitalization north of $120 billion based on real-time pricing. [1]
Robinhood stock price action: a rebound after a choppy December stretch
The move higher on Dec. 16 comes after a sharp pullback earlier this month, when investors digested Robinhood’s November operating metrics and the latest wave of state-level scrutiny around event-based contracts tied to sports. [2]
While the stock remains far below its early-October peak, Robinhood has still dramatically outperformed in 2025—one reason why every incremental data point on user activity, crypto volumes, and event contracts is now moving the narrative (and, often, the stock) faster than it did a year ago. [3]
The biggest HOOD catalyst today: “Robinhood Presents: YES/NO” keynote
Robinhood is hosting “Robinhood Presents: YES/NO” today (Dec. 16), a keynote-style product event positioned around the company’s AI roadmap and prediction markets features. Robinhood has described the event as a look at “latest AI innovations and prediction markets features,” livestreamed from Summit Skywalker Ranch outside San Francisco. [4]
Why it matters for HOOD stock:
- Robinhood’s recent multiple expansion has been tied not just to “more trading,” but to the market’s view that Robinhood is building a higher-frequency, higher-engagement ecosystem.
- Product showcases can reset expectations for 2026 revenue mix—especially if Robinhood signals deeper ownership of the prediction-markets “plumbing,” new contract types, better distribution, or monetization tweaks.
A key investor question going into tonight: does Robinhood merely participate in prediction markets as a distribution platform, or does it become a more vertically integrated operator as the regulatory and competitive landscape evolves?
Analyst action today: Mizuho reiterates Outperform and highlights prediction markets momentum
One of the most market-moving Wall Street notes on Dec. 16 came from Mizuho, which maintained an Outperform rating and a $172 price target on Robinhood, pointing directly to the traction in prediction markets. [5]
Mizuho’s key takeaways (as reported today):
- Robinhood is tracking toward a $300 million run-rate for prediction markets in Q4, with 2.5 billion contracts in October cited as an activity marker.
- The firm said it raised 2026–2027 revenue estimates by 6%–7%, reflecting greater confidence in how prediction markets can scale inside Robinhood’s ecosystem.
- Based on Mizuho’s survey work, Robinhood users appeared more likely to fund prediction-markets participation with fresh money than Coinbase users (though allocations could differ). [6]
For HOOD investors, the message is clear: prediction markets are no longer a “side feature.” They’re increasingly treated as a core monetization lane that can influence forward revenue estimates and the valuation framework.
Robinhood’s November 2025 operating data: the numbers that triggered last week’s selloff
To understand why HOOD has been whipsawing, it helps to look at the most recent platform data. Robinhood’s November 2025 operating report showed:
- Funded customers:26.9 million, down about 130,000 from October, but up about 2.10 million year-over-year. Robinhood said this figure included the impact of required escheatment of roughly 280,000 low-balance accounts. [7]
- Total platform assets:$325 billion, down 5% month-over-month, up 67% year-over-year. [8]
- Net deposits:$7.1 billion in November (with trailing twelve-month net deposits of $70.2 billion). [9]
- Trading volumes (month-over-month):
- Equity notional volumes: $201.5 billion (down 37% vs. October)
- Options contracts: 193.2 million (down 28%)
- Crypto notional: $28.6 billion (down 12%) [10]
- Event contracts traded:3.0 billion, up 20% vs. October. [11]
This mix is important: equities/options/crypto cooled sequentially in November, but event contracts grew, reinforcing the “new growth engine” narrative—just as investors were punishing the stock for softer legacy trading activity.
Regulatory pressure: Connecticut orders Robinhood to halt “unlicensed online gambling” sports wagers
The other major overhang that hit HOOD in early December was regulatory. On Dec. 3, 2025, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection said it issued cease-and-desist orders to Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, KalshiEX LLC, and Crypto.com, alleging the platforms offered sports wagering in violation of state law and without a license. [12]
Connecticut’s announcement emphasized:
- The state views certain “sports event contracts” as illegal without appropriate licensing and consumer protections.
- The orders required the platforms to cease and desist offering/advertising such contracts to Connecticut residents and to allow residents to withdraw funds. [13]
For HOOD shareholders, this matters for two reasons:
- Headline risk: regulatory news can move Robinhood stock quickly because it directly touches a high-growth initiative (event contracts/prediction markets).
- Business-model uncertainty: investors are trying to gauge whether state actions will remain isolated, expand, or be resolved through clearer federal/state boundaries.
In other words, prediction markets may be a growth story—but it’s also a policy story.
A second theme lifting the spotlight: near-24-hour stock trading is gaining momentum
Robinhood also got fresh attention today from the broader market-structure story: the U.S. market’s march toward nearly round-the-clock trading.
In a Dec. 16 Reuters report on Wall Street banks preparing—somewhat reluctantly—for near-nonstop trading, Nasdaq filed paperwork to extend trading to 23 hours a day on weekdays. The report also cited Robinhood’s chief brokerage officer, Steve Quirk, saying it’s not a stretch that “in a couple of years we’ll be trading around the clock.” [14]
This matters for HOOD in two ways:
- Product-market fit: Robinhood’s customer base includes a large population of retail traders who may value more trading hours.
- Competitive positioning: if extended-hours liquidity becomes meaningful, brokers that already emphasize accessibility and mobile-first experiences could benefit—though the industry is still debating liquidity, spreads, volatility, and investor protection risks. [15]
Strategic expansion: Robinhood’s prediction markets buildout and global growth
Beyond today’s event, Robinhood’s recent strategic moves help explain why analysts are attaching bigger numbers to the “next chapter.”
Prediction markets infrastructure: LedgerX / MIAX deal with Susquehanna
In late November, Reuters reported that Robinhood and Susquehanna agreed to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX (under MIAX), a regulated exchange tied to the prediction markets push. Reuters said the transaction was expected to close in Q1 2026, with the exchange expected to begin operations in 2026. [16]
The strategic logic is straightforward: if prediction markets are going mainstream, Robinhood appears intent on strengthening both distribution (in-app) and market infrastructure (exchange/clearing).
International expansion: planned entry into Indonesia
Reuters also reported this month that Robinhood plans to enter Indonesia via acquisitions of a local brokerage and a licensed digital asset trader, with closing expected in the first half of 2026. [17]
For investors, international expansion is potentially a second growth vector—though it also increases execution and regulatory complexity.
Forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street expects for HOOD
Analyst targets for Robinhood remain wide—reflecting both the upside case (rapid product scaling, high engagement, rising margins) and the downside case (regulatory constraints, volume cyclicality, valuation risk).
Consensus view (broad): “Buy,” but with a huge range of outcomes
One widely followed aggregation shows:
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average price target: roughly $119
- Low / high targets:$47 to $180 [18]
That “wide funnel” is the story: the Street broadly likes the direction of travel, but there’s no agreement on how durable the current growth burst is—or how much to pay for it.
Key recent target changes (December 2025)
Recent target adjustments captured in the same dataset include:
- Barclays: raised target $168 → $171 (Dec. 12)
- Cantor Fitzgerald: trimmed $155 → $152 (Dec. 11)
- BofA Securities: trimmed $166 → $154 (Dec. 10)
- Needham: reiterated $145 (Dec. 5) [19]
And today’s standout call:
- Mizuho: reiterated Outperform, $172 target, citing prediction markets growth and a potential $300M run-rate in Q4. [20]
Revenue and EPS expectations: growth priced in
On forward fundamentals, one forecast snapshot estimates:
- FY 2025 revenue: about $4.57B
- FY 2026 revenue: about $5.59B
- FY 2025 EPS: about $2.07
- FY 2026 EPS: about $2.57 [21]
Investors should treat these as consensus-style estimates (not company guidance), but the direction is what matters: analysts are modeling continued growth, not a one-quarter spike.
The bearish counterpoint: valuation debate is intensifying
With HOOD up massively over the past year, a growing slice of commentary has shifted from “can Robinhood grow?” to “how much growth is already priced in?”
Simply Wall St: shares screen as materially overvalued
A Simply Wall St analysis published today argues Robinhood may be trading well above intrinsic value under its “excess returns” approach, citing an estimate that shares are about 173% above modeled intrinsic value and noting a PE around 47x compared with a “Fair Ratio” framework around 27x. [22]
Seeking Alpha: “Too expensive to chase”
A separate analysis published today maintains a Sell stance and cites a $90 price target, framing the stock as too expensive after the rally even with strong Q3 growth. [23]
These views don’t mean the bull thesis is broken—but they do underline why HOOD can fall sharply on any sign of slowing activity or adverse regulation.
What investors are watching next: the 5 catalysts that matter most
1) The YES/NO event announcements (and what they imply for 2026)
If Robinhood uses the keynote to unveil compelling AI features, expand prediction markets, or clarify monetization, that could influence near-term sentiment. [24]
2) Prediction markets growth vs. regulatory friction
Prediction markets are gaining traction (and analyst attention), but state actions like Connecticut’s demonstrate the risk of a patchwork response. [25]
3) Trading volumes through year-end
November showed a month-over-month slowdown in equities/options/crypto volumes, even as event contracts rose. December’s activity will matter because it helps answer whether November was seasonal, volatility-driven, or something more structural. [26]
4) Progress on infrastructure and M&A timelines
Investors will watch for updates on the prediction markets exchange buildout and the timing of planned 2026 launches. [27]
5) The industry shift toward extended-hours trading
If the U.S. market moves toward 23-hour trading and eventually round-the-clock clearing, brokers like Robinhood could benefit—but the execution details (liquidity, spreads, volatility controls) will matter. [28]
Bottom line: HOOD is trading like a “platform re-rating” story—because it is
On Dec. 16, Robinhood stock is being pulled by two powerful forces at the same time:
- Upside narrative: prediction markets scaling, product innovation (including AI), and structural shifts like extended-hours trading that align with Robinhood’s retail-first model. [29]
- Downside reality checks: month-to-month volume cyclicality, a regulatory gray zone around sports-linked contracts, and a valuation that leaves less room for execution mistakes. [30]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.globenewswire.com, 3. www.barchart.com, 4. robinhood.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. portal.ct.gov, 13. portal.ct.gov, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. seekingalpha.com, 24. robinhood.com, 25. portal.ct.gov, 26. www.globenewswire.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.globenewswire.com
