Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is ending 2025 in the spotlight again—this time at the intersection of retail trading momentum, crypto-linked volatility, and a fast-growing push into prediction markets that looks increasingly like a new revenue engine.
On Tuesday, December 23, 2025, HOOD shares traded lower, hovering around $119 and down roughly 2%–3% intraday after Monday’s close near $122. [1] The decline comes as crypto-related equities broadly softened alongside a pullback in Bitcoin. [2]
Still, the bigger story is what investors are debating heading into 2026: whether Robinhood’s product expansion (especially event contracts), international growth plans, and scale economics can keep justifying a stock that has already delivered a stunning run this year.
Why Robinhood stock is down today
HOOD’s move on Dec. 23 looks less like company-specific bad news and more like a risk-off pause tied to crypto and high-beta trading platforms.
Barron’s noted that crypto-exposed stocks—including Robinhood—declined after Bitcoin fell about 3% over the last 24 hours, pulling down sentiment across the group. [3] That linkage matters because investors still treat Robinhood as a “crypto + retail activity” proxy, even as the company tries to broaden its identity into a multi-asset financial platform.
The bigger tailwind: retail investors are driving a “record year” in trading activity
One of the most important macro narratives supporting platforms like Robinhood is that retail participation is no longer a pandemic-era anomaly—it’s becoming a structural feature of U.S. markets.
Reuters reported today that retail inflows into U.S. stocks are on track to hit a record in 2025, with J.P. Morgan analysts estimating inflows are up 53% versus last year, and retail trading representing 20%–25% of total activity (peaking near 35% in April). Reuters explicitly ties this to the rise of low-cost, no-commission brokerages such as Robinhood, which have lowered the friction to participate. [4]
For HOOD investors, that’s a key point: even if trading intensity cools from peak levels, the addressable market looks much larger—and more durable—than it did when Robinhood was still defined mainly by the meme-stock era.
Robinhood’s most important December catalyst: prediction markets are getting “sports-betting-like”
Robinhood’s most consequential near-term product story is its rapid push deeper into event contracts / prediction markets—particularly sports-focused contracts that resemble betting products, but operate under derivatives-style oversight.
Reuters reported that Robinhood rolled out additional sports-focused event contracts allowing users to “wager” on individual player performance (touchdowns, passing/rushing yards), and added “preset combos” that bundle multiple outcomes into a single contract that only pays out if every leg is correct. [5]
That’s notable for three reasons:
- It expands the use case beyond elections and macro events into a category with massive engagement potential (sports).
- It pushes Robinhood toward a model where user engagement can resemble high-frequency participation rather than periodic investing.
- It increases regulatory scrutiny, because critics argue these contracts function like sports betting, while industry participants emphasize federal derivatives oversight. [6]
Barron’s framed Robinhood’s move as a serious challenge to traditional sportsbooks, highlighting that the company plans customizable combos next year, and that management sees prediction markets as a potentially huge category. [7]
How big is prediction markets as a business?
Robinhood and its competitors are trying to convince investors this isn’t a novelty. Reuters cited third-party research indicating prediction markets have surged dramatically, with the monthly value of trades climbing to over $13 billion, up from under $100 million in early 2024. [8]
Meanwhile, as competition heats up, Reuters reported analysts estimate the broader event-contract market could grow from roughly $2 billion in annual revenue today to $10 billion by 2030—a reason multiple retail platforms are racing into the space. [9]
Competition check: Coinbase is coming after Robinhood’s “everything app” vision
Robinhood’s strategy looks increasingly validated—because competitors are copying it.
Reuters reported that Coinbase is moving beyond crypto into stock trading and event contracts, explicitly positioning itself more directly against Robinhood and Interactive Brokers as the battle for retail users intensifies. [10]
This matters for HOOD shareholders in two ways:
- Validation: if major platforms invest heavily, the market opportunity is likely real.
- Margin pressure risk: competing “super-app” ecosystems can compress fees, raise marketing costs, and intensify product arms races.
Robinhood’s operating data shows a split story: assets and deposits strong, trading volumes cooled in November
A critical reality for HOOD is that investors reward growth, but they also watch “activity” metrics closely—especially after a big stock run.
Robinhood’s November 2025 operating data (released Dec. 10) showed:
- Funded customers:26.9 million, down ~130,000 from October, though Robinhood noted this included required escheatment of ~280,000 low-balance accounts. [11]
- Total platform assets: about $325 billion, down ~5% month-over-month but up 67% year-over-year. [12]
- Net deposits:$7.1 billion in November (with a 12-month figure of $70.2 billion). [13]
- Trading volumes in November:
The nuance: November had fewer trading days than October (19 vs. 23), which can naturally depress monthly totals. [18] But the mixed signal remains: traditional equity/options volumes cooled, while event contracts continued to accelerate—supporting the thesis that prediction markets can become a meaningful engagement lever.
Fundamentals recap: Robinhood’s Q3 2025 results explain why the stock became a market favorite
Robinhood’s last reported quarter (Q3 2025) helps explain why HOOD has been treated as one of the market’s standout growth stories in 2025.
In its Q3 2025 results (filed with the SEC), Robinhood reported:
- Total net revenues:$1.27 billion, up 100% year-over-year [19]
- Transaction-based revenues:$730 million, up 129% [20]
- Net income:$556 million, up 271% [24]
- Diluted EPS:$0.61, up 259% [25]
- Funded customers:26.8 million (up 10% YoY) [26]
- Total platform assets:$333 billion (up 119% YoY) [27]
- Robinhood Gold subscribers:3.9 million (up 77% YoY) [28]
Those numbers show why HOOD has traded less like a slow brokerage and more like a high-growth fintech platform—especially in a year where retail participation and thematic trading re-accelerated.
Global expansion is back on the table: Indonesia entry and the WonderFi timeline shift
Robinhood is also pushing beyond its historical U.S.-centric base—an effort investors increasingly view as necessary for a “platform” valuation.
Indonesia: a major Southeast Asia on-ramp
Reuters reported Robinhood plans to enter Indonesia through acquisitions of local brokerage Buana Capital Sekuritas and licensed digital asset trader Pedagang Aset Kripto, with closing expected in the first half of 2026. Reuters highlighted Indonesia’s scale—over 19 million capital market investors and 17 million crypto traders—as part of the rationale. [29]
Canada: WonderFi deal timing extended
WonderFi announced that the outside date for Robinhood’s planned acquisition was extended to June 1, 2026. [30] While extensions aren’t unusual in cross-border, regulated transactions, the timeline shift can matter for HOOD investors modeling when international catalysts turn into financial results.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: optimism, but not unanimous
Into late December, the analyst narrative around HOOD looks like this: strong business momentum, expanding product scope, but valuation and volatility risk.
Recent highlighted targets and calls include:
- Truist initiated coverage at Buy with a $155 price target, citing growth in key metrics and expanding market share. [31]
- Barclays reiterated Overweight and raised its target to $171 (per market reports), pointing to constructive market conditions. [32]
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight while trimming its target to $152 from $155. [33]
At today’s ~$119 level, a $155 target implies roughly 30% upside, illustrating why the name remains attractive to growth-oriented analysts—even after a massive 2025 run. [34]
Earnings outlook snapshot
A Yahoo Finance analyst table (as indexed in public results) shows analysts projecting EPS growth into 2026, with average estimates around $2.01 for 2025 and $2.40 for 2026 (figures vary across data providers and update timing). [35]
The bull case vs. the bear case for HOOD entering 2026
Here’s how today’s news and recent analysis break down into the core investment debate:
Bull case: Robinhood becomes a multi-engine platform
- Retail trading is structurally larger than a few years ago, and macro expectations (including potential rate cuts) could keep risk appetite and participation elevated. [36]
- Prediction markets could become a major engagement and revenue stream, and Robinhood is moving fast with sports-focused products like player contracts and multi-leg combos. [37]
- Scale economics are showing up in profitability, with Q3 2025 delivering strong revenue growth and net income. [38]
- International expansion (Indonesia, Canada pending) broadens total addressable market beyond U.S. retail traders. [39]
Bear case: valuation and regulation re-price the story
- Crypto-linked volatility still swings the stock day to day—as seen today with Bitcoin’s move pressuring crypto-related equities including HOOD. [40]
- Regulatory uncertainty around event contracts is real: state-level scrutiny and ongoing legal debate could tighten product availability, marketing, or distribution even if contracts are federally regulated as derivatives. [41]
- Activity risk: monthly metrics showed meaningful month-over-month declines in equity/options volumes in November (partly calendar-driven), which can revive investor concerns about “normalized” engagement after spikes. [42]
- Insider selling headlines periodically surface for high-flying stocks, including reports of large sales by insiders earlier in November. [43]
What to watch next for Robinhood stock
For investors tracking HOOD into early 2026, the market’s focus is likely to remain on a few measurable signals:
- Monthly operating data: whether equity/options volumes rebound after the holiday period, and whether event contracts keep scaling. [44]
- Prediction markets expansion pace: customizable combos, broader contract coverage, and how regulators react. [45]
- International execution: deal closings and regulatory approvals tied to Indonesia and the WonderFi timeline. [46]
- Competitive response: Coinbase’s push into stocks and event contracts is a reminder that the category’s economics may evolve quickly. [47]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
References
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