NEW YORK, December 27, 2025, 10:06 a.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) heads into the final trading stretch of 2025 with investors weighing a powerful year-to-date rally against a quieter, thin-liquidity holiday tape. With U.S. equity markets closed Saturday and set to reopen Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET, HOOD’s most recent read is Friday’s close at $118.13, down about 1.9% on the day. [1]
That pullback came as Wall Street broadly “caught its breath” in a low-volume, post-Christmas session that left major indexes only marginally lower and kept the market narrative squarely on seasonality and year-end positioning. “We had a very strong five-day rally… we’re just simply catching our breath,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, pointing to the start of the traditional “Santa Claus rally” window that some investors watch for sentiment into the new year. [2]
For Robinhood stock—often treated as a read-through on retail risk appetite, options activity, and crypto engagement—the next session matters less for “fresh headlines” and more for how markets digest a packed year-end calendar, including incoming Federal Reserve communications and any abrupt shifts in liquidity.
Where HOOD stands heading into Monday’s open
Because the exchange is closed today, Friday’s action is the reference point. HOOD traded between roughly $117.60 and $121.32 and finished near $118, leaving the stock below its 50-day moving average (~$128) but above its 200-day moving average (~$115)—a setup that traders often interpret as “cooling momentum, but not broken trend.” [3]
Robinhood’s high beta (about 2.4), cited by market data services, underscores a basic reality for the next session: if the overall market swings sharply in thin year-end conditions, HOOD can amplify those moves. [4]
The biggest HOOD-related news and analysis from the last 24–48 hours
Even with a light corporate news calendar, HOOD has been in the spotlight across market commentary:
1) Post-holiday trading: the market’s tone matters for high-beta fintech
Friday’s trading session was subdued, with investors watching whether the “Santa Claus rally” period delivers a bullish signal into 2026. Detrick said he expects “a little more upward bias going forward,” but also cautioned that volatility is the “toll” investors pay for long-run gains—an especially relevant framing for higher-volatility names like HOOD. [5]
2) New 2026 debate: “buy, sell, or hold” arguments are turning on cycle risk
A Motley Fool analysis published Friday on Nasdaq.com argued that Robinhood’s momentum could be challenged if market conditions turn risk-off in 2026, emphasizing the company’s dependence on active trading—particularly in options and crypto. [6]
3) Another near-term catalyst: profit-taking and positioning after a huge 2025 move
Multiple market roundups and stock-focused briefs framed Friday’s dip as the kind of profit-taking that often appears around year-end—especially after outsized winners. That theme has resonance for HOOD, which has posted a gain of more than 200% in 2025 in some widely cited market commentary. [7]
Robinhood’s fundamentals: why rates, crypto, and options keep showing up in the HOOD story
To understand why macro headlines can move HOOD—even on “no news” days—investors keep coming back to the company’s revenue mix.
In its Form 10‑Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Robinhood reported total net revenues of $1.274 billion for the quarter, including:
- Transaction-based revenues: $730 million
- Net interest revenues: $456 million
- Other revenues: $88 million (including Robinhood Gold subscription revenues: $47 million) [8]
Within transaction-based revenues, the same filing shows just how meaningful risk assets can be for Robinhood’s results: crypto transaction revenue was $268 million in the quarter (with options at $304 million and equities at $86 million). [9]
That mix is why investors frequently treat HOOD as a sentiment barometer. When crypto markets heat up and options activity rises, Robinhood can benefit—while a calmer, lower-volatility tape can cool engagement.
Rate sensitivity is a double-edged sword
Robinhood also explicitly addresses interest-rate risk: the company notes that reductions in interest rates and a return to a low-rate environment could negatively impact total net revenues and net income (loss). [10]
That’s particularly relevant now, given that markets are still calibrating expectations for the path of policy in 2026.
Forecasts and analyst outlook for HOOD stock
Wall Street’s consensus view (as aggregated by MarketBeat from ratings issued over the last 12 months) currently sits at “Moderate Buy,” with an average 12‑month price target of $137.30—roughly mid‑teens upside from around $118—while published targets range widely from $47 on the low end to $180 on the high end. [11]
Recent analyst actions highlighted in market digests include:
- Barclays raising its target price to $171 and reiterating an overweight view (Dec. 12)
- Bank of America trimming its target to $154 while maintaining a buy rating (Dec. 10)
- Truist initiating coverage with a buy and $155 price objective (Dec. 17) [12]
One important takeaway for investors: the price-target spread is unusually wide for a large-cap name—often a sign that analysts see both meaningful upside (if activity stays hot) and meaningful downside risk (if trading volume normalizes or risk assets cool).
The broader market setup going into the next session
S&P 500 near a milestone, but liquidity is thin
Reuters’ Week Ahead coverage notes that the S&P 500 is within striking distance of 7,000, and frames the next few sessions around year-end flows and whether investors maintain a constructive stance into 2026. Strategists including Paul Nolte (Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management) and Michael Reynolds (Glenmede) highlighted that late-December trading can be distorted by portfolio rebalancing and tax positioning—conditions that can create exaggerated moves in both directions. [13]
Fed minutes: a near-term macro catalyst
The Federal Reserve’s calendar shows the FOMC minutes for the December 9–10 meeting are scheduled for December 30 at 2:00 p.m. ET. For a rate-sensitive business model like Robinhood’s, the tone of the minutes—especially around the inflation-growth balance and the committee’s comfort with future easing—can matter for both the broader market and HOOD. [14]
What investors should know before the next HOOD trading session
With the stock exchange closed today, the practical question becomes: what’s most likely to move HOOD when the bell rings Monday?
1) Know the calendar and the liquidity backdrop
U.S. stock markets operate Monday–Friday with core hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, and they’re closed on weekends. [15]
Year-end scheduling matters, too: Investopedia’s market-hours guide notes that stocks are scheduled for a full day on Dec. 31, while the bond market closes early (2 p.m. ET), and U.S. markets are closed for New Year’s Day. That mix can shift liquidity and volatility in the final sessions of the year. [16]
2) Watch the macro “risk-on/risk-off” cues
HOOD often trades with the market’s appetite for risk—especially when crypto and options themes are in focus. If the broader market extends the Santa-rally bid, HOOD can benefit; if investors de-risk into year-end, HOOD can feel it more sharply due to its higher beta. [17]
3) Track the “three engines” of Robinhood’s revenue story
Based on the company’s reported mix, three data points tend to matter most for sentiment:
- Crypto activity (material contributor to transaction revenue) [18]
- Options activity (another large transaction bucket) [19]
- Interest-rate expectations (impacting net interest revenues and management’s stated rate sensitivity) [20]
4) Key technical levels traders may reference Monday
Based on Friday’s range and widely followed trend markers:
- Near-term support: the ~$118 area and Friday’s low near ~$117.6
- Near-term resistance: the ~$121 area from Friday’s intraday highs
- Trend reference points: the 200‑day moving average (~$115) and 50‑day moving average (~$128) [21]
The bigger picture: product expansion remains a longer-run theme
While not new in the last 48 hours, one of the notable strategic themes around Robinhood in late 2025 has been its push beyond core stock-and-options trading. Reuters reported earlier this month that Robinhood expanded its prediction-market style “event contracts,” including sports-focused offerings that allow customers to wager on more granular outcomes (like individual player performance), as competition intensifies across the space. [22]
Investors tend to view these expansions through a single lens: can Robinhood broaden engagement without increasing regulatory, reputational, or earnings volatility risks?
Bottom line for HOOD stock into Monday
With markets closed today, HOOD investors are effectively entering a “setup” window rather than a “headline” window. The key drivers for the next session look like: (1) year-end liquidity and positioning, (2) the tone of risk appetite tied to the Santa-rally period, and (3) the market’s evolving rate expectations ahead of the Fed minutes on December 30.
In that environment, Robinhood stock’s combination of high beta, meaningful crypto/options exposure, and interest-rate sensitivity is exactly what makes it compelling—and potentially volatile—into the first sessions of 2026. [23]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.federalreserve.gov, 15. www.nyse.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com
