Robinhood (HOOD) Stock on November 30, 2025: Earnings Surge, Prediction Markets Push and a Cash-Delivery Bet

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is closing out November 2025 as one of the most talked‑about stocks in the S&P 500, after a month that combined a blockbuster earnings beat, an aggressive expansion into prediction markets, a controversial cash‑delivery service and fresh regulatory heat.

The question now hanging over HOOD stock: is this still a growth story with room to run, or a richly priced momentum trade packed with risk?

Where Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Stands Today

As of the close on Friday, November 28, Robinhood shares were trading around $128.49 per share, putting the company’s market capitalization at roughly $120 billion and implying a price/earnings multiple in the mid‑50s based on trailing earnings. ^[1]

That lofty valuation sits on top of an enormous rally:

Over the past year, HOOD has returned well over 200%, more than tripling while the S&P 500 gained in the mid‑teens. ^[2]
Robinhood joined the S&P 500 on September 22, 2025, replacing Caesars Entertainment — a milestone that pulled in billions of dollars from passive index funds. ^[3]

Short‑term technical services now flag HOOD as a high‑volatility “sell candidate” near term after a string of gains, even as the stock has risen in 7 of the last 10 sessions and remains in an uptrend. ^[4]

So we’re dealing with a classic high‑beta growth name: enormous momentum, but no shortage of air under the price.

Q3 2025: Profit Nearly Quadruples

The current rally is rooted in a genuinely strong third quarter.

On November 5, 2025, Robinhood reported that Q3 net income nearly quadrupled to about $556 million, or $0.61 per share, crushing analyst expectations in the low‑$0.50s per share. ^[5]

Key drivers from Q3 and commentary since then:

Revenue came in around $1.27 billion, ahead of Wall Street forecasts and roughly doubling year over year. ^[6]
Transaction‑based revenue — still the beating heart of the business — more than doubled, with equity trading, crypto and options all showing strong growth. ^[7]
A separate analysis highlighted that platform assets jumped roughly 115% year over year to about $343 billion, reflecting rising markets and net inflows. ^[8]
Management reiterated that prediction markets, options and crypto are now key engines of engagement and revenue, not just side hustles. ^[9]

There was a major C‑suite change embedded in the numbers: long‑time CFO Jason Warnick plans to retire in 2026, with insider Shiv Verma named as successor. ^[10]

Put bluntly, the quarter said: “This is no longer a meme‑era recovery story; it’s a scaled, profitable trading platform with real operating leverage.”

Prediction Markets and Derivatives: The LedgerX / MIAXdx Deal

The single biggest narrative shift for HOOD in late November is Robinhood’s decision to go all‑in on prediction markets.

LedgerX acquisition and new derivatives exchange

On November 25–26, Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group agreed to acquire 90% of LedgerX, a regulated derivatives exchange previously owned by the now‑defunct FTX and then by Miami International Holdings (MIAX). MIAX will retain a 10% stake. ^[11]

In parallel, Robinhood and Susquehanna are:

Launching a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse focused on prediction‑style event contracts.
Acquiring MIAXdx, a crypto‑derivatives platform, as part of the broader deal. ^[12]
Targeting 2026 for the new exchange to go live, pending regulatory approvals. ^[13]

This move builds on Robinhood’s existing partnership with Kalshi, under which the broker introduced event contracts in March 2024 and quickly turned prediction markets into its fastest‑growing product line, with more than 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in the first year and annualized revenues already above $100 million. ^[14]

Zacks‑branded analysis on Nasdaq framed the JV as turning prediction markets into a “structural growth engine” for HOOD, with management eyeing a potential $300 million run‑rate over time if adoption continues. ^[15]

Stock market reaction

Investors have loved this story — so far:

Following the LedgerX / MIAXdx news, HOOD was the top‑performing stock in the S&P 500, at one point jumping 10–11% in a single session. ^[16]
Coverage notes that the stock rebounded more than 17% in four days after the announcement, even though it remains prone to sharp swings month to month. ^[17]

The pitch is clear: prediction markets could smooth the cyclicality of equity and crypto trading, while embedding Robinhood more deeply into speculative “culture” around sports, politics and macro events.

But that’s only half the story.

Legal and Regulatory Storm Clouds Over Event Contracts

Late November also brought some serious legal static around exactly these products.

A Nevada federal court ruling explicitly treated sports‑related event contracts as gambling, pushing back against the industry view that CFTC‑regulated event contracts should be shielded from state gaming rules. ^[18]

As a result:

Robinhood has agreed to halt new sports‑event contracts for customers in Nevada starting December 1, 2025, under a joint enforcement agreement while appeals proceed. ^[19]
Separate coverage notes that Robinhood previously sought an injunction against Nevada gaming regulators and failed to secure a temporary restraining order, with the judge explicitly criticizing the company for reopening Nevada trades in August and “creating its own harm.” ^[20]

Regulatory lawyers and academic commentators have been framing these cases — along with similar fights over Kalshi’s sports contracts — as potentially precedent‑setting for the entire prediction‑market model, including Robinhood’s role as an introducing broker and futures commission merchant. ^[21]

So the same product line that’s currently driving HOOD’s “hyper‑growth fintech” narrative is also one of its most serious sources of tail risk.

Robinhood’s Cash‑Delivery Service: Fintech Meets…Bags of Money

As if “prediction markets plus derivatives exchange” weren’t spicy enough, Robinhood also rolled out one of the strangest new banking features of 2025: same‑day cash delivery to your door.

In mid‑November, Robinhood announced a partnership with Gopuff, letting eligible customers have physical cash delivered in a sealed paper bag instead of finding an ATM. ^[22]

Key details:

Initially available in New York City, with plans to expand to other major U.S. cities in 2026. ^[23]
Fees are roughly $6.99 per delivery, or around $2.99 for higher‑asset customers — competitive with average out‑of‑network ATM fees, which sit just below $5. ^[24]
The feature is restricted to Robinhood Gold banking customers with sufficient deposits and uses verification codes plus background‑checked couriers for security. ^[25]

MarketWatch and the Wall Street Journal both highlighted the service as part of Robinhood’s push to mimic high‑end private banking perks — alongside estate‑planning tools, concierge‑style services and even luxe add‑ons like access to helicopter rides and gala‑type events. ^[26]

Investors, interestingly, were not immediately impressed: HOOD fell sharply on the day the cash‑delivery news broke, underscoring how sensitive the stock is to anything that looks like gimmickry instead of core monetization. ^[27]

Balance Sheet, Buybacks and “Sky‑High” Valuation

Underneath the flashy product rollouts, Robinhood now looks much more like a traditional, cash‑generative financial firm:

As of September 30, 2025, the company held about $4.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, similar to year‑end 2024 levels. ^[28]
Robinhood’s board approved its first‑ever share repurchase program in May 2024, initially authorizing $1 billion in buybacks, later expanded to $1.5 billion. Management expects the program to run over roughly two to three years starting in Q3 2024. ^[29]
By mid‑2025, the company had already repurchased hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Class A shares. ^[30]

Recent analysis has raised the obvious question: with the stock up more than 200% over the last year and trading at a P/E in the 50s, how much of that growth is already priced in? One widely cited piece described HOOD’s valuation as “sky‑high, but backed by real growth,” pointing to rapid earnings expansion, strong cash reserves and the buyback plan — while warning that any slowdown in trading or event‑contract revenue could hit the multiple hard. ^[31]

What Wall Street and Big Money Are Doing With HOOD

Analyst sentiment and price targets

According to aggregated data from Quiver Quantitative, in the last several months:

13 analysts have rated HOOD “Buy” or “Outperform”, with only a single “Sell” rating.
Around 18 analysts have issued price targets, with a median target near $149, above current levels. Recent targets range roughly from the mid‑$130s to around $180. ^[32]

That leaves HOOD trading at a discount to the most bullish scenarios but not far from consensus fair value, depending on how you feel about prediction markets and cash‑delivery‑as‑a-service.

Institutional and insider flows

Institutional flows have been huge — and mixed:

Quiver data shows over 800 institutions increasing their HOOD positions in recent quarters, including major boosts from Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock, while more than 500 cut exposure. ^[33]
MarketBeat reports that Williamson Legacy Group increased its Robinhood stake by 178% in Q2, while Steward Partners Investment Advisory cut its holdings by about a third. ^[34]

Insiders, however, have mostly been hitting the sell button:

Quiver’s insider‑trading summary shows company insiders executing over 100 open‑market sales in the past six months, unloading millions of shares worth hundreds of millions of dollars, with only a single notable insider buy. ^[35]
MarketBeat similarly notes that insiders sold roughly 3.97 million shares (around $500 million in value) over the last quarter, even as they still own more than 14% of the company. ^[36]

At the same time, a recent Yahoo Finance piece pointed out that insiders still retain about $111 million in HOOD stock, cautioning investors not to confuse insider selling with a total lack of skin in the game. ^[37]

Net, the picture is: Wall Street and big institutions are heavily involved, analysts skew bullish, but insiders are aggressively de‑risking into strength.

Key Risks Around Robinhood Stock

For investors trying to decide how to interpret HOOD at the end of November 2025, several risk themes stand out:

Regulatory uncertainty around prediction markets
- Nevada’s court rulings and enforcement actions against sports‑event contracts show that state regulators are willing to push back even when platforms point to CFTC oversight. ^[38]
- If more states follow Nevada’s lead — or if federal regulators tighten rules — the revenue runway for Robinhood’s prediction‑market expansion could narrow quickly.
High dependence on speculative trading
- Q3 results were powered by strong activity in options, crypto and event contracts, all of which are historically cyclical and highly sensitive to risk appetite. ^[39]
- A recent breakdown of a mid‑November sell‑off noted that concerns about a broader market slump could directly depress Robinhood’s trading volumes and profits. ^[40]
Valuation and volatility
- With a triple‑digit percentage gain over the last year and a P/E multiple far above the market average, HOOD leaves little room for execution missteps. ^[41]
- Technical screens show elevated volatility metrics, reflecting the stock’s tendency to move double digits on news. ^[42]
Reputation and product‑design risk
- Opinion pieces continue to question whether Robinhood’s growing focus on high‑frequency, high‑risk traders — including options and event contracts — crosses the line from “democratizing finance” into “gamified speculation.” ^[43]
- Features like cash delivery in bags are eye‑catching but may increase scrutiny from consumer‑protection advocates if anything goes wrong.

The Bull Case: Why Some Investors Still Love HOOD Here

Despite those risks, the bullish narrative is straightforward:

Explosive earnings growth: profit and revenue are growing far faster than the broader market, with Q3 profit nearly quadrupling year over year. ^[44]
Big balance‑sheet and buybacks: billions in cash plus a multi‑year, multi‑billion‑dollar repurchase plan provide downside support and signal management confidence. ^[45]
Index inclusion and brand power: S&P 500 membership and a meme‑era brand that still resonates with younger traders mean HOOD sits inside many portfolios almost by default. ^[46]
Product innovation: from retirement accounts and bank‑style features to prediction markets and derivatives, Robinhood is not behaving like a sleepy brokerage — it’s positioning itself as a kind of “speculation and investing super‑app.” ^[47]

That’s why some analysts and commentators have argued that, while HOOD looks expensive on today’s numbers, it might still be reasonably priced if management can turn prediction markets, derivatives and banking into durable, multi‑billion‑dollar businesses over the next few years. ^[48]

Bottom Line: Robinhood Stock on November 30, 2025

On November 30, 2025, Robinhood is not the scrappy app from the GameStop days. It’s:

A profitable S&P 500 constituent with a market cap around $120 billion. ^[49]
A company aggressively leveraging prediction markets and derivatives for growth while absorbing fresh regulatory blows. ^[50]
A fintech willing to experiment with odd but headline‑grabbing ideas like cash in a bag delivered to your door. ^[51]

Whether HOOD stock is attractive from here depends largely on how comfortable you are with: