Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) has turned into one of 2025’s most explosive large‑cap trades. The commission‑free brokerage is now an S&P 500 component, its stock is up roughly 260–270% year‑to‑date depending on the reference date, and long‑term holders have seen gains of around 1,400–1,500% over the past three years. [1]
Since November 21, 2025, the story has accelerated: Robinhood has posted blockbuster Q3 earnings, released strong (if choppy) November operating metrics, announced a major derivatives‑exchange acquisition for prediction markets, pushed deeper into global crypto and European trading — and run head‑first into new U.S. gambling‑law scrutiny.
Below is a detailed, SEO‑ready breakdown of the latest HOOD stock news, forecasts, and analyses from November 21, 2025 onward, plus what it could mean for investors heading into 2026.
Key Takeaways for HOOD Stock (December 11, 2025)
- Price & valuation: HOOD closed at $135.66 on December 10, 2025, implying a market cap of about $122 billion, a trailing EPS of $2.39, and a P/E around 56–57x, with a 52‑week range of $29.66–$153.86. [2]
- Post‑11/21 move: From a November 21 close near $107.30 to the mid‑$130s, HOOD has climbed roughly 26% in just three weeks, despite sharp day‑to‑day swings. [3]
- Fundamentals: Q3 2025 revenue doubled to $1.27 billion, net income surged to $556 million, and diluted EPS jumped to $0.61, with crypto, options and interest income doing much of the heavy lifting. [4]
- Operating data: November 2025 metrics show 26.9 million funded customers, $324.5 billion in assets, $7.1 billion in monthly net deposits and strong year‑over‑year growth in equity and options volumes, but a notable month‑over‑month pullback from October’s highs. [5]
- Growth story: Robinhood is betting big on prediction markets, a CFTC‑licensed derivatives venue (MIAXdx), global crypto expansion (including new European trading pairs and futures/staking products), and a new beachhead in Indonesia via brokerage and crypto‑trader acquisitions. [6]
- Risks: Recent Connecticut cease‑and‑desist orders targeting Robinhood’s event contracts as unlicensed online gambling, heavy insider selling, and a lofty valuation leave little room for execution missteps. [7]
- Wall Street view: Consensus is broadly bullish: most analyst sets now rate HOOD a Buy/Moderate Buy, but the average 12‑month price targets (roughly $119–$149) cluster around or even below the current price, suggesting either near‑term downside or that the street is playing catch‑up. [8]
HOOD Stock Price Action Since November 21, 2025
On November 21, 2025, Robinhood closed around $107.30 after trading as high as $109.99 during the session, on volume just over 40 million shares. [9]
Since then:
- The stock has rallied into the $130s, with closing prices in early December generally ranging between $125 and $137. [10]
- From Nov. 21’s close to Dec. 10, the gain is roughly 26%.
- Despite that run, HOOD still trades about 11–12% below its 52‑week high near $153.86, suggesting room on the upside if momentum persists. [11]
It hasn’t been a smooth line up. Forbes noted that Robinhood shares fell more than 11% during the week of November 21 as investors digested interest‑rate uncertainty and the stock’s huge year‑to‑date gains. [12] Multiple Motley Fool and Barchart notes during late November and early December also flagged short‑term “crash” and “pop” days as HOOD traded in lockstep with crypto and sentiment around prediction markets. [13]
In short: post‑11/21 price action has been volatile but decisively bullish, with HOOD acting like a high‑beta levered play on risk appetite, crypto, and prediction‑market hype.
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 Earnings Set the Tone
Much of the optimism underpinning HOOD’s rally is rooted in its blowout Q3 2025 numbers, reported on November 5 and still front‑and‑center in every new analysis:
- Total net revenue:$1.27 billion, up 100% year‑over‑year, and above consensus estimates around $1.21 billion. [14]
- Net income:$556 million, up roughly 271% YoY. [15]
- Diluted EPS:$0.61, up about 259% YoY and comfortably ahead of Wall Street’s ~$0.51–0.54 expectations. [16]
- Transaction‑based revenue:$730 million, up 129% YoY, driven by:
- Crypto revenue of about $268 million (up over 300%),
- Options revenue around $304 million (up ~50%),
- Equities revenue of roughly $86 million (up about 132%). [17]
- Net interest revenue:$456 million, up roughly 66% YoY, powered by larger margin balances and customer cash, and robust securities lending. [18]
- Users and assets: Around 26.8 million funded customers and $333 billion in total platform assets, up roughly 10% and 119% YoY respectively, with net deposits of $20.4 billion in the quarter. [19]
- Robinhood Gold: Paying “Gold” subscribers reached about 3.9 million, up roughly 77% YoY, as Robinhood continues to pivot from pure payment‑for‑order‑flow to higher‑margin subscription and interest income. [20]
Management also highlighted that Robinhood now has around 11 business lines each generating roughly $100 million or more in annualized revenue, underscoring how far it has evolved from a single‑product meme‑stock app. [21]
This backdrop is critical for understanding the post‑11/21 narrative: almost every recent forecast, from Motley Fool opinion pieces to Wall Street research notes, anchors on the idea that Robinhood has reached escape velocity on profitability while still posting hyper‑growth metrics. [22]
November 2025 Operating Data: Growth With a Cooling Month‑Over‑Month Trend
On December 10, 2025, Robinhood released its November 2025 operating metrics, giving investors the first detailed look at how the business is tracking after Q3. [23]
Key highlights:
- Funded customers:
- 26.9 million at month‑end, down ~130,000 vs October but up ~2.1 million YoY.
- Management pointed out that a required escheatment of ~280,000 low‑balance accounts caused the headline decline; excluding that, funded customers would have actually grown by about 150,000 in November. [24]
- Total platform assets:
- $324.5–$325 billion, down ~5% month‑over‑month, but up ~67% year‑over‑year—a function of market moves and net deposits. [25]
- Net deposits:
- $7.1 billion in November alone, with $70.2 billion over the trailing twelve months, equating to roughly 36% annualized growth versus November 2024 assets. [26]
- Trading volumes (November vs October / YoY):
- Equity notional volume:$201.5 billion, down 37% vs October, but up 37% YoY.
- Options contracts:193.2 million, down 28% vs October, but up 24% YoY.
- Crypto notional volume:$28.6 billion, down 12% vs October and 19% YoY; Robinhood App crypto volumes were especially weak YoY, down about 66%. [27]
- Event contracts (prediction markets):3.0 billion contracts, up 20% vs October and massively above early‑2025 levels. [28]
- Margin and cash sweep:
- Margin balances hit $16.8 billion, up 2% M/M and a huge 147% YoY.
- Total cash sweep balances ended at $32.5 billion, down 5% M/M but up 23% YoY, partly because Robinhood wound down its Non‑Gold cash sweep program and shifted about $700 million into free credit balances. [29]
- Securities lending:
- $34 million in November revenue, down 43% M/M but up 48% YoY after a very strong October (which posted ~$60 million). [30]
The bottom line: year‑over‑year growth remains explosive, but November reflects a comedown from October’s frenzied trading, especially in equities, options, and crypto. That nuance has shown up in some cautious commentary (e.g., Seeking Alpha’s note that Robinhood posted “mostly lower” month‑over‑month volumes), even as bulls point to the still‑strong YoY comps and net deposit trends. [31]
Prediction Markets, MIAXdx, and Robinhood’s Derivatives Ambition
One of the most important developments since November 21 is Robinhood’s push to own the plumbing of prediction markets and derivatives trading:
MIAXdx Acquisition and Susquehanna Partnership
On November 25, 2025, Miami International Holdings announced an agreement to sell 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange (MIAXdx) to Robinhood, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group (SIG). MIAX will retain a 10% stake. [32]
MIAXdx is:
- A CFTC‑licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM),
- A Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO),
- And a Swap Execution Facility (SEF). [33]
In other words, Robinhood isn’t just listing event contracts on someone else’s venue anymore — it’s buying a full derivatives exchange + clearinghouse stack, giving it tighter control over economics and product innovation.
Piper Sandler called the deal “quite positive,” estimating that it could boost Robinhood’s prediction‑market economics by roughly 45% for contracts routed through the new joint venture, and reiterated an Overweight rating with a $155 price target. [34]
The MIAXdx move dovetails with management’s Q3 commentary that event contracts traded doubled sequentially to 2.3 billion in Q3 and then surged to 2.5 billion in October alone, putting the franchise on a $300 million annual revenue run‑rate according to some analyst estimates. [35]
Prediction Markets as a Growth Engine
Recent Motley Fool and Nasdaq coverage emphasises that prediction markets could become a massive new revenue stream, with Robinhood already offering more than 1,700 event contracts across sports, politics, economics, climate, and entertainment. [36]
Fintech commentators have noted:
- Contract volumes have “doubled every quarter” since launch, a rare compounding trajectory for a new product. [37]
- Prediction markets and Bitstamp (the institutional crypto exchange Robinhood acquired earlier in 2025) are already each contributing over $100 million in annualized revenue, according to investor‑oriented breakdowns. [38]
Put simply, Robinhood is trying to become the Coinbase + DraftKings + CME of retail prediction markets, and November’s MIAXdx deal is the structural step that makes that vision more plausible.
International & Crypto Expansion: Indonesia, Europe, and New Products
Indonesia Entry
On December 7–8, 2025, Robinhood announced it will enter Indonesia by acquiring:
- PT Buana Capital Sekuritas, a local brokerage, and
- PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, a licensed digital asset trader. [39]
Key details from Reuters:
- Indonesia has more than 19 million capital‑market investors and 17 million crypto traders, making it one of Southeast Asia’s most attractive markets for both equities and digital assets. [40]
- The deal is expected to close in H1 2026, pending regulatory approvals.
- Current majority owner Pieter Tanuri will stay on as a strategic adviser.
- The move follows Robinhood’s earlier expansions into the U.K. and EU, and its addition to the S&P 500, signaling a new phase of global ambitions. [41]
Cantor Fitzgerald explicitly cited the Indonesia deal when it trimmed its HOOD price target from $155 to $152 but kept an Overweight rating, framing the move as a straightforward “total addressable market expansion” play. [42]
Crypto: Futures, Staking, Tokens and New EU Pairs
On the crypto side, Robinhood has been busy since November:
- A Decrypt‑syndicated article (via SwingTradeBot) highlighted Robinhood’s expansion into crypto futures, staking products, and stock tokens, as it seeks deeper engagement from global crypto traders. [43]
- A separate Benzinga‑syndicated piece noted that Robinhood has added XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana trading pairs specifically for European customers, signalling a push into more advanced, higher‑volume retail traders in the EU. [44]
Combined with its earlier Bitstamp acquisition, Robinhood is increasingly positioning itself as a multi‑jurisdictional crypto hub—one that can benefit when digital asset volumes spike, but that also inherits crypto’s regulatory and cyclicality risks. [45]
Regulatory Wildcard: Connecticut’s Crackdown on Event Contracts
The biggest new risk headline since November 21 comes not from earnings, but from regulators.
On December 3, 2025, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease‑and‑desist orders to Robinhood, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, accusing them of offering unlicensed online gambling via prediction markets (including sports‑related events) in violation of state law. [46]
Key points:
- Connecticut regulators argue these platforms are effectively running illegal sports wagering, potentially accessible to those under 21, and lacking state‑level consumer protections and financial integrity safeguards. [47]
- Robinhood and peers counter that their products are federally regulated derivatives overseen by the CFTC, not state lotteries or sportsbooks. [48]
- A separate legal fight over Kalshi’s operations has already prompted a temporary federal court pause on Connecticut’s enforcement against that platform, underscoring just how unsettled the regulatory landscape is for prediction markets. [49]
For HOOD shareholders, this means:
- Headline risk remains high — states may follow Connecticut’s lead, or the conflict between federal and state interpretations could end in tighter rules.
- Worst‑case scenarios (bans in multiple large states, adverse federal rulings) would materially affect what many bulls view as Robinhood’s next major growth engine.
- On the flip side, a favorable resolution could cement Robinhood’s first‑mover advantage if competitors face more regulatory friction.
Analyst Ratings, Price Targets, and Forecasts for HOOD
Consensus Snapshot
Different data providers show slightly different snapshots, but the broad story is consistent:
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 23 analysts cover HOOD, with an average rating of “Buy.”
- The average 12‑month price target is about $119.48, implying roughly 12% downside from the $135.66 closing price as of December 10. [50]
- MarketBeat (Nov. 21 alert):
- Tallies 14 Buy, 8 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings, summarizing HOOD’s consensus as “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $136.95 — almost exactly at where the stock is now. [51]
- Public.com aggregator:
- Shows analyst sentiment skewed Strong Buy/Buy, with a blended target around $133–134, again close to spot. [52]
- QuiverQuant (Nov. 17 “Stock to Watch” note):
- Reports 18 analysts with a median price target around $149, which would imply decent double‑digit upside from November levels but less from current prices. [53]
In other words: Wall Street mostly likes HOOD, but it doesn’t have a unanimously “cheap” stamp anymore. Several consensus targets actually trail the current quote, reflecting how quickly the stock has outrun earlier models.
Recent Target Changes and Commentary
- Cantor Fitzgerald (Dec. 11):
- Lowered its price target from $155 to $152, but kept an Overweight rating.
- The cut came after the Indonesia announcement and November metrics update; Cantor still sees the deal as expanding Robinhood’s addressable market, but acknowledges valuation and regulatory uncertainties. [54]
- Piper Sandler (Nov. 26):
- Reiterated Overweight and a $155 target following the MIAXdx acquisition, estimating a ~45% boost to prediction‑market economics through the new venture. [55]
- Earlier upgrades (pre‑11/21 but still driving the story):
- MarketBeat’s Nov. 21 piece notes recent target hikes from Needham ($145), Barclays ($168), and Citizens JMP ($180), reflecting how quickly sentiment turned from skepticism to enthusiasm after Q3. [56]
Insider Selling
One red flag many analysts mention: aggressive insider selling.
MarketBeat calculates that insiders sold about 5.13 million shares (~$626.5 million) over the last three months, even though insiders still own roughly 14–15% of the company. [57]
Heavy insider selling doesn’t automatically mean trouble — executives often diversify — but at a rich multiple, it reinforces the perception that insiders are happy to cash in at current levels.
Bull Case: Why Many Analysts Still Like HOOD Into 2026
Recent bullish analyses from Motley Fool, Nasdaq, and others make broadly similar arguments for why HOOD could still outperform, even after its spectacular run: [58]
- Hyper‑growth with real profits
- Few large‑cap financials are doubling revenue and nearly tripling earnings while already posting net margins north of 50%. [59]
- Robinhood has transitioned from a cash‑burning disruptor to a profitable, capital‑returning platform with share buybacks authorized since 2024 and an additional $500M authorization in 2025. [60]
- Diversified revenue engine
- Prediction markets and MIAXdx as structural upside
- If prediction markets become mainstream, the combination of Robinhood’s user base + MIAXdx’s exchange infrastructure could give HOOD a defensible moat in an entirely new asset class. [63]
- Crypto and global expansion optionality
- Bitstamp, European crypto products, and the Indonesia deal position Robinhood to capture global retail flows beyond U.S. equities — especially if another crypto boom hits. [64]
- Brand and demographic tailwinds
- Robinhood’s brand penetration among younger investors, plus its low‑friction UX, continues to be a significant asset as trillions in wealth shift to younger cohorts over time. [65]
Bulls essentially argue that HOOD is on track to become a global, multi‑asset brokerage + derivatives exchange + prediction‑market operator, which, if executed well, could justify today’s valuation — or even a higher one.
Bear Case: Valuation, Volatility and Regulation
Skeptical commentary — including pieces asking whether investors should “buy, sell, or hold” after the recent surge — tends to focus on three main themes: [66]
- Rich valuation vs. cyclicality
- At ~57x trailing earnings and a market cap above $120 billion, Robinhood is priced like a high‑growth tech platform, not a traditional broker. [67]
- Yet a large portion of revenue still depends on trading volumes, particularly in crypto, which are notoriously cyclical. A crypto or meme‑stock chill could hit HOOD’s top line and compress the multiple quickly. [68]
- Regulatory overhang on prediction markets
- The Connecticut crackdown is likely the first of many skirmishes over whether event contracts are financial instruments or gambling. [69]
- A patchwork of state bans or restrictive rules could limit U.S. growth in Robinhood’s most hyped new business line or saddle it with costly compliance requirements.
- Insider selling and “already‑priced‑in” growth
- With over $600 million of recent insider sales, some investors worry that the best upside is now behind the stock in the near term. [70]
- Many consensus price targets now sit at or below the current quote, suggesting that a lot of good news — Q3’s earnings explosion, prediction‑market momentum, and international expansion — is already reflected in the price. [71]
Bearish or cautious takes don’t necessarily call HOOD a bad business — they just argue that risk/reward is no longer obviously skewed to the upside at current levels.
HOOD Stock Forecast: What the Post‑11/21 Newsflow Implies
Putting all of the above together, what does recent news since November 21, 2025 suggest about HOOD’s outlook?
- Momentum is still on Robinhood’s side.
- A ~26% gain in three weeks, on top of a ~260–270% YTD rally, tells you funds and retail traders are still happy to chase upside, especially as Bitcoin and risk assets stay strong. [72]
- Fundamentals back the story — for now.
- Q3 profitability, November’s YoY growth in key metrics, and rising margin balances all support the idea that HOOD is more than just a trade; it’s a rapidly scaling financial platform. [73]
- The next leg of growth hinges on execution in three arenas:
- Prediction markets & MIAXdx: Turning massive event‑contract volume into sustainable, high‑margin revenue under regulatory fire. [74]
- International expansion (Indonesia, EU, UK): Successfully localizing and navigating foreign regulatory regimes — especially for crypto. [75]
- Crypto & derivatives products: Balancing opportunity against cyclicality and regulatory scrutiny around derivatives, staking, and tokenization. [76]
- Valuation leaves little room for big mistakes.
- With HOOD trading at a premium multiple, any stumble — a regulatory setback, a sharp drop in trading volumes, or a disappointing quarter — could trigger fast multiple compression.
- Street forecasts imply more of a “stock‑picker’s” name than a no‑brainer bargain.
- The fact that consensus targets cluster between roughly $120 and $150 while the stock already trades in the mid‑$130s suggests that analysts see both upside and downside scenarios as plausible over the next 12 months. [77]
If you’re bullish on:
- The institutionalization of prediction markets,
- The continued crypto and retail‑trading cycle, and
- Robinhood’s ability to win outside the U.S.,
then HOOD still looks like a high‑beta growth stock with substantial long‑term optionality.
If, however, you’re wary of:
- Regulatory crackdowns,
- The possibility that crypto and meme‑trading enthusiasm fade, and
- Paying nearly 60x earnings for a cyclical business,
then the risk/reward at current levels may feel stretched, especially after the post‑November 21 surge.
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