Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Today, December 2, 2025: Price, Forecast, Prediction Markets Pivot and Crypto Risks

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is back in the spotlight on December 2, 2025, after a year in which the stock has more than tripled and become one of the S&P 500’s standout performers. ^[1]

At the same time, the shares sit more than 20% below their October peak, analysts remain bullish on the long term, and fresh worries about crypto volatility and rich valuations are starting to bite. ^[2]

Below is a detailed, news-driven look at Robinhood’s stock as of December 2, 2025, drawing on the latest earnings, product announcements, analyst forecasts and commentary.

1. Where Robinhood Stock Stands on December 2, 2025

Price & valuation snapshot

Last close (Dec 1): $123.24
Pre‑market quote (Dec 2, ~8:47 a.m. ET): $125.14 (+1.54%)
Market cap: ≈ $110 billion
Trailing P/E: Roughly 50–60x, depending on source and earnings definition
52‑week range: $29.66 – $153.86 ^[3]

Even after a sharp pullback from its October high of $153.86, Robinhood’s share price still reflects enormous growth expectations. ^[4]

From a factor perspective:

The stock trades with a beta of about 2.4, meaning it tends to move more than twice as much as the broader market. ^[5]
Technicals remain bullish on a longer horizon: HOOD trades above its 200‑day moving average (~$108), but below its 50‑day moving average (~$133) after the recent pullback – a classic “still in an uptrend but consolidating” pattern. ^[6]

2. The Latest Shock: Crypto Sell‑Off Hits Robinhood

On December 1, HOOD dropped over 7% intraday as crypto prices tumbled after the People’s Bank of China warned it would crack down on speculation and illegal activities related to stablecoins and digital assets. ^[7]

A key takeaway from that move:

Robinhood’s Q3 earnings report highlighted that transaction-based revenues rose 129% year‑over‑year to $730 million, driven largely by cryptocurrencies, which were up over 300%. ^[8]
As Finviz notes, the bulk of incremental growth is still tied to crypto trading volume; when crypto wobbles, HOOD’s revenue narrative does too. ^[9]

The December 1 sell‑off is a reminder that HOOD is effectively a leveraged bet on trading activity in risk assets, especially crypto – something investors need to factor into any 2026–2027 expectations.

3. Q3 2025: A Breakout Profitability Story

Despite that volatility, the fundamental story coming out of Q3 2025 results (reported November 5) is undeniably strong:

Total Q3 net revenues: $1.27 billion, +100% year‑over‑year.
Transaction-based revenues: $730 million, +129% YoY.
Net interest revenues: $456 million, +66% YoY.
Net income: $556 million vs. $150 million a year ago – +271% YoY, implying a net margin of ~52%. ^[10]

For the first nine months of 2025, Robinhood generated:

$3.19 billion in net revenues, up 65% versus the same period in 2024.
$1.28 billion in net income, up 158% versus the prior year. ^[11]

Management also highlighted:

ARPU (average revenue per user) climbed to about $191, up 82% year‑over‑year, as customers trade more and adopt higher‑value products. ^[12]
Operating expenses grew far slower than revenue, dropping to 50% of revenue in Q3 2025 from 76% in Q3 2024, thanks to scale and better cost discipline. ^[13]

On the balance sheet, Robinhood ended Q3 with:

Around $4.3 billion in cash, plus access to $3.8 billion in credit lines, for total liquidity of about $7.8 billion – a substantial war chest for expansion and M&A. ^[14]

This combination – hyper‑growth plus real profitability – is a key reason hedge funds and institutions have piled in, and why many analysts remain bullish even after the stock’s huge run.

4. The New Growth Engine: Prediction Markets, AI and Derivatives

4.1 Prediction markets & sports betting

Prediction markets have quietly become one of Robinhood’s most important growth vectors:

By late Q3, CEO Vlad Tenev revealed that Robinhood Prediction Markets had processed 4 billion event contracts all‑time, with 2 billion in Q3 alone, driven largely by sports‑related contracts. ^[15]
More recent coverage reports that the platform has now surpassed 9 billion event contracts and over 1 million prediction‑market users, underscoring rapid adoption. ^[16]

An FX News Group piece from September 30 noted that HOOD soared 12.3% in a single day to a then all‑time high of $136.84, with the move attributed to the surge in prediction markets (especially sports betting) and growing institutional ownership after inclusion in the S&P 500. ^[17]

4.2 December 16 AI & product launch event

On December 1, CryptoBriefing reported that Robinhood will host an event on December 16 where Tenev will unveil new AI‑driven tools and expanded prediction‑market features. The company is positioning AI as a way to surface trading ideas and insights tied to real‑world event contracts. ^[18]

That’s relevant for HOOD’s valuation because:

It deepens engagement (more reasons to open the app daily).
It can drive higher trading frequency and cross‑selling into options, crypto and margin.
It differentiates Robinhood from traditional brokerages that lack integrated social, prediction and AI layers.

4.3 Joint venture with Susquehanna: CFTC‑licensed derivatives exchange

Perhaps the most strategic development in late November:

On November 25, Robinhood announced a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group to operate a CFTC‑licensed exchange and clearinghouse focused on futures, derivatives and prediction markets. ^[19]
The venture is acquiring MIAXdx, a CFTC‑regulated Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, from Miami International Holdings. MIAX will retain a 10% stake. ^[20]
The new exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026, serving Robinhood Derivatives and other FCMs, and significantly expanding the scope of event contracts and other derivatives the firm can offer. ^[21]

This move does three important things for the equity story:

Vertical integration: Owning an exchange and clearing infrastructure can improve economics and strategic control.
Deeper moat in prediction markets: It positions Robinhood at the heart of what is quickly becoming a mainstream asset class. ^[22]
Regulatory legitimation: Operating under a CFTC license should, in theory, reduce some long‑term regulatory overhang versus more ad‑hoc event‑contract models.

That said, the CFTC’s stance on sports‑ and politics‑linked event contracts remains fluid, and Robinhood has already had to roll back a pro‑football championship market earlier in 2025 at the regulator’s request – a reminder that this opportunity comes with real policy risk. ^[23]

5. Institutions Are Buying — Insiders Are Selling

The ownership picture around HOOD is unusually polarized.

5.1 Institutional accumulation

Several recent filings and data sources highlight aggressive institutional interest:

MarketBeat reports that Lido Advisors and VestGen Advisors took or increased positions in HOOD during Q2 2025, contributing to institutional ownership of about 93% of shares outstanding. ^[24]
A November 26 Barchart column notes that Bridgewater Associates bought 807,514 shares in Q3, framing the post‑October pullback as a buying opportunity. ^[25]
QuiverQuant data show 834 institutional investors added HOOD, versus 533 that reduced positions in their most recent quarter. Major additions came from Vanguard, State Street, BlackRock and Geode, each adding millions of shares. ^[26]

That kind of institutional clustering is rare for a relatively young fintech and is part of what has propelled the stock into mega‑cap territory.

5.2 Heavy insider selling

On the other side of the ledger, insiders have been net sellers on a large scale:

MarketBeat notes that corporate insiders sold over 4 million shares worth about $512 million in the last 90 days, with CEO Vlad Tenev and director Baiju Bhatt among the largest sellers. ^[27]
QuiverQuant’s insider dashboard shows 110 insider transactions in the last six months – 109 sales and just 1 purchase. Tenev alone has sold more than 5.5 million shares over that span, while Bhatt has sold about 5.4 million. ^[28]

Insider selling is not automatically bearish (it can reflect diversification), but the scale and one‑sided nature of the activity sits awkwardly alongside the bullish narrative and is one of the main flags raised by skeptics.

6. What Wall Street Thinks: Ratings and Price Targets

Despite the recent pullback and heavy insider selling, the consensus view from Wall Street remains broadly positive.

6.1 Consensus ratings

Across major aggregators:

MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy”, based on 23 analysts — 1 Sell, 7 Hold, 14 Buy, 1 Strong Buy. ^[29]
QuiverQuant: 13 firms with Buy ratings vs 1 Sell in recent months. ^[30]

In other words, most coverage is bullish to cautiously optimistic, with a minority of more skeptical voices.

6.2 Price targets

Different platforms quote slightly different averages, but the picture is consistent:

MarketBeat: Average 12‑month target $136.95, about 11% upside from ~$123; high $180, low $47. ^[31]
QuiverQuant: Median target $149, with recent notable targets including:
- Needham: $145 (Strong Buy, Nov 26)
- Citizens: $180 (Market Outperform, Nov 7)
- Barclays: $168 (Buy, Nov 6)
- Cantor Fitzgerald: $155 (Buy, Nov 6)
- Mizuho: $172 (Outperform, Nov 6) ^[32]

That cluster of targets in the $135–$180 range shows that analysts, on average, still see meaningful upside from current levels, but also a wide spread of opinions that reflects the stock’s risk profile.

7. Growth Forecasts: Revenues and Earnings

Analysts aren’t just extrapolating hype; they’re plugging in very aggressive fundamental growth:

From StockAnalysis’ consensus forecasts: ^[33]

Revenue 2024: ~$2.95 billion
Revenue 2025 (forecast): ~$4.34 billion (+46.9%)
Revenue 2026 (forecast): ~$5.24 billion (+20.9%)

Earnings per share (EPS):

2024 EPS: 1.56
2025 EPS (forecast): 1.89 (+21%)
2026 EPS (forecast): 2.30 (+22%)

At the current price, that implies a forward P/E in the low‑ to mid‑50s, which is expensive in absolute terms but more reasonable if Robinhood can truly sustain 20%+ annual EPS growth for several years.

8. Not Everyone Is Bullish: Valuation and Competitive Concerns

A wave of more cautious analysis has emerged as HOOD’s share price has rocketed.

8.1 Seeking Alpha: “Not much upside”

A December 2 Seeking Alpha article notes that HOOD is among the top S&P 500 performers in 2025, with a year‑to‑date gain exceeding 270%, driven by high trading activity, crypto expansion, and a millennial/Gen‑Z user base. ^[34]

However, the piece argues that:

The online brokerage industry is intensely competitive, with low switching costs and uncertain long‑term winners.
While Robinhood is well‑positioned for further growth, the share price now appears “fully valued”, and the author prefers to wait for a better entry point.

8.2 Fundamental valuation models

Some independent valuation models are even more skeptical:

A Simply Wall St–style discounted cash flow analysis (as reported via Yahoo Finance) recently suggested that Robinhood’s shares trade at over 200% above their estimate of fair value — implying the market is pricing in a lot of perfection. ^[35]

8.3 Business model & regulatory risks

Key risk themes recurring across recent commentary include:

Crypto dependence: As the December 1 sell‑off showed, Robinhood’s revenue growth is tied disproportionately to crypto volumes. A sustained downturn or regulatory shock to digital assets could hit both growth and sentiment hard. ^[36]
Regulatory uncertainty around prediction markets:
- CFTC oversight of event contracts remains in flux; Robinhood has already had to roll back a pro‑football contract market earlier this year. ^[37]
- New ventures in futures and derivatives may draw even more regulatory attention. ^[38]
Competition: Traditional brokers and newer fintechs are racing to catch up on fractional shares, options, crypto and social features. If Robinhood’s product edge narrows, the willingness to pay a 50–60x earnings multiple could fade quickly. ^[39]

9. Scenario Thinking: Bull, Base and Bear Cases

To make sense of the conflicting narratives, it helps to think in scenarios rather than single‑point forecasts. None of this is investment advice, but it frames what the market seems to be debating.

Bull case (what the optimists see)

Prediction markets become a mainstream asset class, and Robinhood emerges as a leader, with its new CFTC‑licensed exchange capturing a large slice of volume. ^[40]
AI‑driven tools, social features and family‑oriented products deepen engagement and help Robinhood own the customer relationship across stocks, options, futures, crypto and event contracts. ^[41]
Revenues compound at ~20–30% annually through 2027, EPS grows even faster, and the current P/E multiple – while high – proves justified as the company matures into a global, highly profitable financial platform. ^[42]

Base case (what consensus seems to price in)

Growth slows from 2025’s blistering pace but remains robust, roughly in line with current consensus forecasts for revenue and EPS. ^[43]
Crypto remains volatile but net supportive over the cycle; prediction markets continue to grow, though regulatory guardrails cap some upside. ^[44]
HOOD earns into its valuation over time, with the stock delivering mid‑teens annual returns if earnings and cash flow ramp as expected but the multiple compresses slightly.

Bear case (what the skeptics worry about)

A prolonged crypto downturn or new crackdown (like the recent Chinese moves) hits trading volumes hard just as expectations are highest. ^[45]
The CFTC and other regulators take a tougher stance on event contracts and sports‑linked markets, limiting the economics of prediction markets or forcing rollbacks. ^[46]
Competition from both legacy brokers and nimble upstarts erodes Robinhood’s user growth and pricing power. In that world, valuation models calling the stock significantly overvalued could prove prescient, and today’s price might look like the peak of a cycle rather than a new baseline. ^[47]

10. Takeaways for Investors

Putting all of this together as of December 2, 2025:

Robinhood is executing extremely well on the fundamentals:
- Triple‑digit revenue growth, rising ARPU, and genuine profitability. ^[48]
The strategic pivot into prediction markets and derivatives is real and accelerating, backed by a CFTC‑licensed exchange JV, massive event‑contract volumes, and an upcoming AI‑focused product event. ^[49]
Valuation is the crux of the debate. At 50–60x trailing earnings and a double‑digit forward P/E on 2026 numbers, HOOD leaves little room for major execution missteps or a long downturn in trading activity. ^[50]
Ownership signals are mixed: institutions are flocking in, but insiders have been heavy net sellers. ^[51]
Macro and regulatory risks (crypto and event contracts) are not going away, and could drive sharp drawdowns even if the long‑term thesis plays out. ^[52]

For anyone following Robinhood stock today, the key questions aren’t just “Will it grow?” but:

Can it grow fast enough to justify a premium multiple through a full trading cycle?
Will regulators ultimately embrace, tolerate or clamp down on the event‑contract and tokenization experiments at the heart of Robinhood’s next act?

Those answers will likely matter more to HOOD’s 2026–2027 share price than any single quarter’s earnings beat.

This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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