Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD ) is ending the week in the spotlight after a sharp post-update selloff put the retail brokerage’s growth story—and its new “crypto + prediction markets” strategy—back at the center of investor debate.
As of Friday, Dec. 12, 2025 , HOOD was trading around $123 (down roughly 9% from the prior close), a notable pullback for a stock that has been one of 2025’s standout performers. [1]
The immediate catalyst: Robinhood’s November 2025 monthly operating data , which showed a steep month-over-month slowdown in equities, options, and crypto activity versus an unusually strong October—while net deposits and prediction-market (“event contract”) volumes remained bright spots. [2]
Below is a detailed look at what moved Robinhood stock this week, what analysts are forecasting, and the key catalysts and risks investors are watching heading into 2026.
Why Robinhood stock is down: November trading cooled after a hot October
Robinhood’s Nov. 10 operating snapshot (released Dec. 10) delivered a mixed message:
The headline negative: trading volumes fell sharply vs. October
In November 2025, Robinhood reported:
- Equity notional trading volumes:$201.5B ( -37% month-over-month)
- Options contracts traded:193.2M ( -28% month-over-month)
- Crypto notional trading volumes:$28.6B ( -12% month-over-month) [3]
Those declines helped explain the market reaction: investors have been pricing HOOD as a high-operating-leverage platform—meaning changes in activity levels can ripple quickly into revenue expectations.
At least part of the story, however, is “tough comparisons.” Commentary following the release noted that October was unusually strong , making the November step-down look more dramatic. [4]
The offset: deposits remained strong and prediction markets accelerated
Even as trading cooled, Robinhood posted $7.1B of net deposits in November (which it described as a 25% annualized growth rate relative to October’s platform assets). [5]
And crucially for the company’s new growth narrative:
- Event contracts traded:3.0B in November ( +20% month-over-month) [6]
That matters because Robinhood’s pitch to investors is increasingly about diversifying away from pure “retail equity/options cycles” into a broader ecosystem—one where event contracts, crypto, futures, net interest revenue, subscriptions, and wealth products can smooth volatility.
Key November 2025 metrics: the numbers investors are focusing on
Robinhood’s monthly release included several datapoints that are now driving near-term HOOD stock analysis:
- Funded customers:26.9M , down about 130K vs. October
- Robinhood said the account included required escheatment of ~ 280K low-balance accounts; without that, funded customers would have risen by ~ 150K in November. [7]
- Total platform assets:$325B , down 5% month-over-month, up 67% year-over-year [8]
- Margin balances:$16.8B , up 2% month-over-month, up 147% year-over-year [9]
- Total cash sweep balances:$32.5B , down 5% month-over-month, up 23% year-over-year
- Included the impact of ~ $700M shifting as Robinhood wound down its Non-Gold Cash Sweep program in November. [10]
- Securities lending revenue:$34M , down 43% month-over-month, up 48% year-over-year [11]
This combination— lower trading , but strong net deposits + growing margin + rising event contracts —is at the heart of today’s HOOD debate: is the November dip a warning sign of normalization, or simply a pause after October’s surge?
The broader context: Q3 results were strong and showed business diversification
Zooming out from one month of metrics, Robinhood’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025, released Nov. 5) showed a company still putting up big year-over-year gains:
- Total net revenue:$1.27B (up 100% year-over-year)
- Net income:$556M (up 271% year-over-year)
- Diluted EPS:$0.61 (up 259% year-over-year) [12]
The Q3 release also highlighted areas management is emphasizing as “platform” growth drivers:
- Robinhood Gold subscribers:3.9M (up 77% year-over-year) [13]
- Total platform assets:$333B (up 119% year-over-year) [14]
- Event contracts traded:2.3B in Q3; October alone was 2.5B contracts (more than all of Q3) [15]
Robinhood also disclosed a CFO transition : CFO Jason Warnick intends to retire next year, with a transition from the CFO role in Q1 and continued advisory through Sept. 1, 2026 , and the company plans to name finance veteran Shiv Verma as the next CFO. [16]
For HOOD stock watchers, the takeaway is that the fundamentals and product expansion narrative were strong in Q3 , which is why a single month of weaker trading can spark such a strong tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Prediction markets: a growth engine — and a regulatory flashpoint
The “bull case” angle: Robinhood is building a new market category
Robinhood has leaned hard into predicting markets, and the company’s public messaging around the category has been emphatic—CEO Vlad Tenev described them as “really on fire,” according to reporting that cited a Q3 earnings-call transcript. [17]
Strategically, Robinhood’s ambition is bigger than offering a few event contracts. It’s moving toward owning more of the stack:
- In late November, Reuters reported that Robinhood and Susquehanna struck a deal to acquire 90% of LedgerX , positioning the company to build deeper infrastructure in regulated event-driven markets, with a transaction expected to close in Q1 2026 and exchange operations expected in 2026 . [18]
- Investopedia also reported that Robinhood is launching a futures and derivatives exchange managed by a joint venture with Susquehanna and tied to an acquisition of a CFTC-licensed derivatives clearinghouse/exchange stake. [19]
The “risk case” angle: a fight over who regulates these products
Prediction markets are also drawing political and legal attention. On Dec. 11 , Reuters reported that Kalshi and Crypto.com launched the Coalition for Prediction Markets , with Robinhood and Coinbase among the named members. Reuters said the coalition aims to strengthen the federal framework, establish integrity standards, and push back against what it views as state-level overreach. [20]
At the same time, state-by-state scrutiny is becoming a material risk factor for HOOD’s event-contract ambitions. Legal Sports Report described rising legal battles and wrote that Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders involving sports-related prediction markets, including Robinhood, while other states have taken similar stances. [21]
Bottom line for investors: prediction markets are potentially a high-growth product line—but one where regulatory outcomes could shape product availability, economics, and the pace of expansion.
International expansion: Robinhood targets Indonesia, one of Asia’s biggest retail trading markets
Another major HOOD stock headline this week: international expansion .
On Dec. 8 , Reuters reported Robinhood will acquire Indonesian brokerage firm Buana Capital Sekuritas and licensed digital asset trader Pedagang Aset Kripto , marking entry into Indonesia—described as a major crypto hub with a large, young investor base. Reuters noted Indonesia has more than 19M capital market investors and 17M cryptocurrency traders , and said the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026 (financial terms were not disclosed). [22]
For HOOD’s long-term story, Indonesia is meaningful for two reasons:
- Market expansion beyond US retail trading cycles
- More strategic room to build a global crypto + derivatives ecosystem, especially alongside Robinhood’s ownership of Bitstamp activity referenced in its operating metrics. [23]
Crypto product push: staking, futures, and tokenized stocks raise the ceiling — and the stakes
Crypto remains central to Robinhood’s revenue mix and investor perception. A Dec. 8 report by Decrypt said Robinhood is rolling out multiple crypto initiatives, including:
- Ethereum and Solana staking going live in New York (with plans to expand pending regulatory clearance)
- Expanded perpetual futures in Europe, including new trading pairs and up to 7x leverage
- Plans for tokenized stocks (1,000+ US equities, described as tradable 24/7 ) and tokenized money market funds, managed by partners including JP Morgan
- Mention of a layer-2 project called “Robinhood Chain” [24]
This product roadmap can be a tailwind for engagement and monetization—but it also increases Robinhood’s exposure to:
- Crypto market volatility (which impacts volumes and sentiment)
- Regulatory interpretation across multiple jurisdictions
- Technology and operational complexity
HOOD stock forecast: what analysts are projecting on Dec. 12, 2025
Analyst expectations for Robinhood remain constructive overall—but the details vary depending on methodology and the timing of revisions.
Consensus ratings and price targets
- MarketBeat lists a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating based on 23 analyst ratings , with an average 12‑month price target of $136.16 (about 10% upside from ~$123). It lists a high target of $180 and a low of $47 . [25]
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus rating of “Buy” , but with an average price target of $119.33 (slightly below the current price), and the same broad $47–$180 range. [26]
The gap between those two “consensus” snapshots is a useful reminder: “average target” is not a single truth —it depends on which analysts are included, how recently updates are captured, and whether older targets are still counted.
Recent target changes around the monthly update
StockAnalysis lists several notable changes in early December, including:
- BofA Securities: target $166 → $154 (maintains strong buy) dated Dec. 10, 2025 [27]
- Cantor Fitzgerald: target $155 → $152 dated Dec. 11, 2025 [28]
A common thread in these updates: targets are being trimmed , but ratings often remain positive , suggesting analysts may be balancing near-term activity volatility against longer-term product expansion.
Institutional and sentiment check: ARK Invest bought the dip
One of the most-circulated HOOD items after the selloff: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest added shares.
Investing.com reported that ARK purchased 124,427 shares of Robinhood on Dec. 11, 2025 , valued at about $16.9M , split across ARKK and ARKW. [29]
Benzinga also covered the purchase and linked it to the post-metrics dip. [30]
ARK activity doesn’t change Robinhood’s fundamentals, but it does function as a sentiment signal—especially when a high-beta fintech name sells off sharply after data.
What to watch next: catalysts and risks for Robinhood stock into 2026
Here are the key items likely to drive HOOD stock narratives over the next several weeks and into early 2026:
Potential catalysts
- Next earnings report: MarketBeat estimates Robinhood’s next earnings date for Feb. 11, 2026 (based on past reporting schedules). [31]
- Monthly activity trends: whether November is a one-off cooldown or the start of a softer run-rate in equities/options/crypto volumes [32]
- Prediction market infrastructure buildout: progress toward the Q1 2026 close of the LedgerX transaction and steps toward an in-house venue in 2026 [33]
- Indonesia entry execution: regulatory approvals, integration planning, and clarity on product rollout as the deal targets a first-half 2026 close [34]
Key risks
- Regulatory/legal friction for event contracts: especially at the state level, even as the industry pushes for federal clarity [35]
- Crypto volatility: which can swing sentiment and activity quickly (and affects crypto-volume-driven narratives) [36]
- Operating leverage: when activity falls month-over-month, the market tends to re-rate “growth platform” assumptions quickly (as this week demonstrated) [37]
The bottom line for Dec. 12, 2025
Robinhood stock is selling off because the market is recalibrating expectations after a November cooldown in trading activity —but the broader story is more nuanced than “volumes down.”
Robinhood is simultaneously:
- expanding globally (Indonesia),
- scaling crypto features (staking, futures, tokenization),
- and turning prediction markets into a core product category—while navigating a regulatory landscape that is evolving in real time.
For HOOD investors, the next question is whether Robinhood can keep proving that net deposits, subscriptions, interest income, and new trading categories can offset inevitable activity swings in equities/options/crypto—especially after a year where expectations have risen quickly. [38]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.globenewswire.com, 3. www.globenewswire.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.globenewswire.com, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.legalsportsreport.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.globenewswire.com, 24. decrypt.co, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.benzinga.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.globenewswire.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.globenewswire.com, 37. www.nasdaq.com, 38. www.sec.gov
