NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:53 ET
- Robinhood reported preliminary December trading activity that investors use to gauge momentum into 2026
- Analysts’ targets still point to upside, but forecasts now hinge on whether retail trading cools further
- Event-contract trading remains a key swing factor as competition expands
Robinhood Markets Inc said on Tuesday that customers traded about $170 billion of equities — measured by “notional” volume, the dollar value of trades — from Dec. 1 through Dec. 28, as investors looked for clues on where the retail broker’s stock could head in 2026. It also reported about 179 million options contracts (which generally represent 100 shares each), about $19 billion of crypto notional volume, and about 2.6 billion event contracts, contracts that trade between $0.01 and $1 and settle at $1; the company said the unaudited figures were preliminary and that full December operating data would come with its full-year and fourth-quarter earnings release. Shares last closed at $113.10, while analysts tracked by MarketScreener had an average target price of $151.33. 1
The update matters now because Robinhood’s results can move quickly with customer trading activity, which often follows market volatility and investor sentiment. The start-of-year read-through is especially important after a year of outsized swings across equities and crypto.
Robinhood chief investment officer Stephanie Guild said retail customers have eased off heavy buying since late October, telling CNBC that “net buying has trailed off a bit from our customer base from that sort of peak October 29th period.” Net buying refers to customers purchasing more securities than they sell. 2
Wall Street’s near-term debate has shown up in price-target changes. Needham & Company cut its price target to $135 from $145 while maintaining a “buy” rating, MarketBeat reported, as the firm weighed the durability of retail participation heading into 2026. MarketBeat also pointed to rising competition in event-driven trading, including from DraftKings. 3
Earnings forecasts have moved the other direction. Zacks said its consensus estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 earnings is $2.40 per share, up 5.7% over the past 30 days, and noted Robinhood Gold subscriptions rose 75% year-over-year to 3.9 million subscribers. Earnings per share, or EPS, is profit divided by shares outstanding, a common yardstick for comparing performance. 4
Robinhood’s expansion into prediction markets is another pillar of the 2026 story. The company and Susquehanna International Group struck a deal in November to take over the regulated exchange LedgerX from Miami International Holdings, a move aimed at building a larger footprint in event-based contracts; the deal was expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. Prediction markets let customers trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, and rival exchange operators such as CME Group and Cboe Global Markets have also signaled plans to enter the space. 5
The December snapshot underscored how central derivatives-style products have become to Robinhood’s activity mix. Options and event contracts accounted for large unit volumes, while crypto notional volume remained meaningfully smaller than equity notional volume over the same period.
That mix matters because Robinhood’s stock tends to trade on whether customer engagement is broadening beyond single-asset surges. Investors will be watching whether the company can keep those higher-frequency products active if markets settle into a calmer pattern.
Macro expectations are part of that calculus. Guild has pointed to a more modest baseline for U.S. market returns in 2026, a view that typically implies fewer “must-trade” moments for retail customers than in high-volatility stretches.
For HOOD shareholders, the next major checkpoints are the company’s full-year and fourth-quarter results, plus any additional detail on how event contracts and crypto are translating into revenue. The early December data offered momentum, but it also set a higher bar for follow-through.
The consensus setup going into 2026 remains constructive, with the average target above the latest close. The stock’s path, though, looks increasingly tied to whether Robinhood can convert strong volumes in options and event contracts into steadier earnings as competition in those markets intensifies.
