Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) ended Monday’s session modestly higher, then held steady in after-hours trading as investors balanced a calm, holiday-thinned tape with fast-moving headlines in prediction markets—one of Robinhood’s most closely watched new growth areas.
Robinhood (HOOD) price after the bell: the numbers that matter
HOOD finished the regular session on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025 at $122.37, up $1.02 (+0.84%). The stock traded between $121.07 and $124.55 during the day on volume of about 16.5 million shares. [1]
In after-hours trading, HOOD was last indicated around $122.45 (a small additional gain) as of 7:59 p.m. ET. [2]
Market backdrop: a higher close into a quieter holiday week
Robinhood’s close came alongside a broadly positive day for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq added 0.5% as Wall Street started what’s expected to be a calmer, holiday-shortened week. [3]
That matters for HOOD because the stock tends to trade as a high-beta “risk-on” proxy—often moving more than the overall market when risk appetite improves.
The big theme behind today’s HOOD attention: prediction markets are heating up again
Even when Robinhood itself isn’t issuing a new press release, the stock can react to headlines that validate—or threaten—its biggest growth bets. On Dec. 22, the prediction markets ecosystem delivered two notable signals:
1) FanDuel and CME launch prediction markets in more states—directly name-checking the Robinhood-Kalshi benchmark
Reuters reported Monday evening that FanDuel and CME Group launched a prediction markets platform in five U.S. states (with a phased rollout to other states into early 2026). Reuters said the platform is expected to offer event contracts tied to benchmarks like the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and energy prices, as well as key economic indicators—alongside sports contracts in states where online sports betting isn’t legal. [4]
Why HOOD investors care: Reuters noted that Piper Sandler analysts estimate CME could generate more than $300 million in revenue from the FanDuel joint venture alone if it reaches the scale of Kalshi and Robinhood’s partnership. [5]
Translation for Robinhood stock watchers: the market is treating the Robinhood-Kalshi footprint as a reference point—which can be interpreted as validation of the opportunity, but also as a reminder that competition is intensifying.
2) Coinbase moves deeper into prediction markets—and positions itself more directly against Robinhood
In a separate Reuters report published late Monday, Coinbase said it will buy prediction markets startup The Clearing Company (its tenth acquisition this year), with the deal expected to close in January. Reuters also noted that Coinbase launched its prediction markets platform earlier this month and said it will start letting users trade stocks—positioning itself as a more direct competitor to brokerages like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. [6]
For HOOD, this is a double-edged headline:
- It reinforces the idea that prediction markets could become a mainstream, high-frequency engagement product (a positive for category leaders).
- It also raises the stakes on product differentiation, pricing, and regulatory clarity as major platforms crowd in.
Wall Street forecasts and analyst updates published today: where expectations sit now
Monday also brought fresh analyst framing on HOOD—useful context heading into Tuesday’s session.
Morgan Stanley nudges its price target higher (but keeps a neutral-style rating)
MarketBeat reported that Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Robinhood to $147 from $146 and maintained an “equal weight” rating. [7]
MarketBeat also summarized a broader view of the Street:
- It cited a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and a consensus price target around $137. [8]
- It listed several other recent analyst actions in December (including price target changes and initiations). [9]
What to take from this before the open: the incremental target move itself is small, but it signals that HOOD remains actively covered and debated—especially after a powerful 2025 run and a volatile December.
Today’s “ownership” and “insider activity” angle: institutions buying, insiders selling
Two MarketBeat filings recaps published today highlighted institutional accumulation alongside heavy insider selling:
- MarketBeat said Corient Private Wealth increased its stake by 41.2% in Q2, and that institutional investors and hedge funds own about 93.27% of the stock. [10]
- A separate MarketBeat recap said Exchange Traded Concepts LLC increased its position by 44.0% in Q3. [11]
- Both pieces emphasized recent insider selling: roughly 3.68 million shares sold for about $475 million over the last 90 days (while still noting insiders retain a meaningful ownership stake). [12]
- MarketBeat also referenced a sale by co‑founder Baiju Bhatt (including share count and average price) as an example of that insider activity. [13]
Investors often interpret this mix in different ways:
- Bull case framing: institutions increasing exposure suggests continued confidence in the longer-term story.
- Bear case framing: persistent insider selling can act as an overhang—especially if the market is already debating valuation.
The fundamental snapshot: what investors are still anchoring to
Even on a day dominated by “industry news,” HOOD’s near-term narrative still rests on business performance and engagement.
The last major earnings catalyst: Q3 profit beat and strong transaction trends
In early November, Reuters reported Robinhood topped third-quarter profit estimates, with profit nearly quadrupling to $556 million (61 cents per share) and transaction-based revenue more than doubling to $730 million—including sharp gains across equities, options, and crypto activity. Reuters also reported Robinhood raised its 2025 adjusted operating expense forecast and announced a CFO succession plan. [14]
Prediction markets are not a side quest anymore
Reuters has consistently described prediction markets as a key strategic investment area for the company, including leadership commentary pointing to growth potential. [15]
And just last week, Reuters reported Robinhood expanded sports-focused event contracts (including player-performance contracts and “preset combos”), while noting regulators are considering tougher oversight and critics argue these products resemble sports betting. [16]
That regulatory/competition backdrop is part of what makes Monday’s FanDuel/CME and Coinbase headlines especially market-moving for HOOD.
What to know before the stock market opens Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025
Here’s the checklist traders and longer-term investors are watching ahead of the open—with an emphasis on catalysts that can influence high-beta fintech names like Robinhood.
1) A packed U.S. economic calendar could shift rates and risk appetite
A Reuters-sourced preview published by Investing.com highlights several high-impact releases scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 23, including:
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Q3 GDP (expected 3.2% vs previous 3.8%)
- 8:30 a.m. ET:Durable goods (expected 0.2% vs previous 0.5%)
- 8:30 a.m. ET:Building permits (expected 1.340M vs previous 1.330M)
- 8:30 a.m. ET:Core PCE (monthly: no forecast listed in the preview; prior 0.2%)
- 10:00 a.m. ET:Conference Board consumer confidence (expected 91.7 vs previous 88.7) [17]
Why this matters for HOOD:
- Stronger growth or hotter inflation can push yields higher, sometimes pressuring growth/fintech multiples.
- Softer data can revive “rate-cut” narratives, often supportive for risk assets and trading activity.
- Consumer confidence and spending data can also shape expectations for retail participation—an indirect, but important input for brokerage platforms.
2) Holiday week market structure: lower liquidity and upcoming early close
This is a holiday-shortened week, and that can change how stocks trade.
- The NYSE notes the market will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 (with eligible options closing at 1:15 p.m.). [18]
- Nasdaq’s holiday schedule also lists an early close on Dec. 24 at 1:00 p.m. ET and closure on Christmas Day (Dec. 25). [19]
- SIFMA’s recommendations flag a 2:00 p.m. ET early close for certain fixed-income markets on Dec. 24. [20]
For HOOD specifically, thinner liquidity can mean:
- Bigger intraday swings on relatively modest news flow.
- A higher chance that macro data surprises (at 8:30 a.m. ET) ripple quickly through growth stocks.
3) Watch the “prediction markets arms race” headlines
If you’re tracking HOOD into Tuesday, keep an eye on follow-through coverage of:
- FanDuel Predicts rollout and any reaction from regulators or state-level stakeholders. [21]
- Coinbase’s acquisition and its timeline for stock trading/prediction market expansion. [22]
Given Robinhood’s increasing focus on event contracts and futures-style products, category-wide headlines can move HOOD even without a direct company announcement.
4) Next earnings timing: expectations, not confirmations
Several market calendars currently estimate Robinhood’s next earnings report window in February 2026, with some listings pointing to Feb. 11, 2026 as an estimate derived from historical patterns (not a confirmed date). [23]
That’s not tomorrow’s catalyst—but it can influence positioning as traders think about how much “runway” remains in the stock before the next official numbers.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.nyse.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.sifma.org, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com
