U.S. markets reopen for a regular session on Friday, December 26, 2025, after the Christmas Day closure and the early close on Wednesday, December 24. [1]
For Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD), that timing matters: the stock is heading into the first full post‑holiday session with a stack of fresh catalysts—especially around prediction markets, international expansion, and the company’s most recent operating data.
As of the latest available trading data (from the shortened December 24 session), HOOD was around $120.44 with an implied market cap near $127B.
Below is what investors and traders should know before the bell.
Where HOOD stands heading into Dec. 26
Because NYSE markets closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24 and were closed on Dec. 25, the latest price discovery heading into Dec. 26 has been shaped by a holiday‑thinned tape and reduced liquidity—conditions that can amplify gap moves at the open. [2]
Robinhood’s core equity story into year‑end is increasingly a “three-engine” narrative:
- Higher engagement across asset classes (equities, options, crypto, futures)
- Rapidly scaling event contracts / prediction markets
- Expansion beyond the U.S. through acquisitions and product rollout
The key question for the Dec. 26 open: does the market treat HOOD as a “holiday hangover” risk (thin liquidity + elevated valuation), or as a momentum/innovation winner that can keep compounding into 2026?
The biggest HOOD-specific news driving attention right now
1) Robinhood’s prediction markets push is turning into an infrastructure bet
Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group agreed to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX (under MIAX ownership), a move designed to accelerate Robinhood’s push into prediction markets and support plans for a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Reuters reported the transaction is expected to close in Q1 2026, with operations expected to begin in 2026. [3]
A parallel MIAX statement describes MIAXdx as both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) regulated by the CFTC, and also flags the deal’s expected Q1 2026 closing (subject to customary conditions and CFTC-related filings). [4]
Why this matters for HOOD stock: the market often rewards fintech platforms that move “up the stack” from distribution to owning/controlling infrastructure, because it can improve unit economics and reduce dependence on third parties—assuming execution and regulatory approval cooperate.
2) Robinhood expanded sports event contracts—amid rising scrutiny
On December 17, Reuters reported Robinhood expanded sports-focused event contracts to allow customers to wager on individual player performance (for example: touchdowns, yards), and also introduced “preset combos” that bundle multiple predictions into a single contract. [5]
The same report notes the product expansion is happening as some state regulators push for tougher oversight, and amid ongoing debate over whether event contracts resemble gambling—an issue that could influence how broadly and smoothly prediction markets scale across the U.S. [6]
For the Dec. 26 open, this is a “double-edged catalyst”:
- Bull case: more product breadth → more engagement + fees
- Bear case: broader contracts → higher regulatory heat
3) November operating data: trading cooled sequentially, but event contracts grew
Robinhood’s November 2025 operating data (released Dec. 10) painted a mixed picture:
- Funded customers: 26.9M (down ~130k from Oct, up ~2.1M YoY), with the monthly change influenced by required escheatment of low-balance accounts [7]
- Total platform assets: $325B (down 5% from Oct, up 67% YoY) [8]
- Trading volumes (Nov):
- Equity notional volume: $201.5B (down 37% from Oct, up 37% YoY) [9]
- Options contracts: 193.2M (down 28% from Oct, up 24% YoY) [10]
- Crypto notional volume: $28.6B (down 12% from Oct, down 19% YoY), with Robinhood App crypto notional volume down sharply YoY and Bitstamp contributing additional volume [11]
- Event contracts traded:3.0B (up 20% from Oct) [12]
- Margin balances: $16.8B (up 147% YoY) [13]
This is crucial context heading into the open: even with softer sequential equity/options/crypto activity, Robinhood is still showing strong YoY growth in multiple lines, and event contracts continued climbing month over month.
What the last earnings report tells investors about HOOD’s momentum
Robinhood’s Q3 2025 results (reported Nov. 5) were emphatically strong:
- Total net revenues: $1.27B (+100% YoY) [14]
- Transaction-based revenues: $730M (+129% YoY), including:
- Crypto revenue $268M (up “over 300%” YoY)
- Options revenue $304M (+50% YoY)
- Equities revenue $86M (+132% YoY) [15]
- Net income: $556M (+271% YoY) [16]
- Diluted EPS: $0.61 (+259% YoY) [17]
- Gold subscribers: 3.9M (+77% YoY) [18]
- Funded customers: 26.8M (+10% YoY) [19]
- Total platform assets: $333B (+119% YoY) [20]
Two additional items from that release matter for forward-looking investors:
CFO transition
Robinhood said CFO Jason Warnick plans to retire next year, with a transition from the CFO role in Q1 and finance veteran Shiv Verma named as the next CFO; Warnick is expected to remain a strategic advisor through Sept. 1, 2026. [21]
Product and business-line breadth
Robinhood highlighted that it had grown to multiple business lines at meaningful scale, and emphasized prediction markets and Bitstamp as revenue contributors, while also pointing to new product rollouts and international growth. [22]
International expansion: Indonesia deal adds a new 2026 catalyst
On December 8, Reuters reported Robinhood will acquire Indonesian brokerage Buana Capital Sekuritas and licensed digital asset trader Pedagang Aset Kripto, marking entry into Indonesia. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, with terms undisclosed. [23]
Reuters also framed the move as a push into a market with large investor and crypto-trader counts, and noted Robinhood’s strong 2025 share performance at the time of reporting. [24]
For HOOD stock, this is a longer-duration catalyst (not a Dec. 26 “trade the headline” event), but it feeds the strategic narrative: Robinhood is building a multi-region platform rather than a U.S.-only brokerage.
The prediction-markets “arms race” is real—and it cuts both ways
Robinhood is not building in a vacuum. Reuters has repeatedly pointed to intensifying competition and mainstream adoption pressure in prediction markets, including Robinhood’s own commentary about being open to M&A and partnerships to expand the business. [25]
At the same time, broader media coverage has emphasized how prediction markets have increasingly tilted toward sports and how that shift is reigniting the debate over whether these products are “investing,” “trading,” or something closer to regulated betting. [26]
That tension creates a clear setup for HOOD into 2026:
- If regulators allow event contracts to scale broadly, Robinhood’s distribution + infrastructure moves could look prescient.
- If regulators tighten the screws (especially at the state level), growth could become choppier and more headline-sensitive.
Analyst forecasts and Street sentiment: what targets imply from here
Consensus snapshots vary by data provider, but several widely followed aggregators show a generally constructive stance with a wide dispersion in price targets:
- MarketBeat lists a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with an average target around the mid‑$130s and a wide low‑to‑high range. [27]
- StockAnalysis shows a “Buy” consensus and highlights a range of published targets (including recent updates from major banks), again with a very wide spread between the lowest and highest targets. [28]
How to interpret this dispersion before the open:
- The wide range suggests analysts agree on the directional opportunity (bigger product surface area, higher engagement), but disagree on the durability of revenue drivers, regulatory outcomes, and what multiple the market should pay for them.
- When a stock has already surged hard, target dispersion often becomes a proxy for “how much of the future is already priced in.”
Risks to keep front-and-center before the Dec. 26 bell
1) Volume cyclicality shows up fast in the monthly data
November showed sharp sequential declines in equity and options activity from October—while still up YoY in several categories. That reminds investors that Robinhood’s transaction-heavy model can cool quickly month to month when volatility drops or retail appetite pauses. [29]
2) Regulation is the biggest swing factor for prediction markets
Reuters’ Dec. 17 report explicitly ties product expansion to growing calls for oversight and the ongoing “is this gambling?” debate. [30]
If a negative regulatory headline hits premarket or early in the session, HOOD can trade like a high-beta proxy for that theme.
3) Integration and execution risk rises with ambition
Robinhood is simultaneously:
- integrating and expanding acquired/partnered capabilities (e.g., exchange/clearing ambitions), [31]
- pushing international expansion through acquisition (Indonesia), [32]
- and managing a CFO transition. [33]
Any one of these is manageable; all at once increases the odds of operational surprises.
4) Interest-rate sensitivity remains in the model
Robinhood’s Q3 release pointed out net interest revenues benefited from interest-earning assets and securities lending, but also referenced headwinds from lower short-term rates. If the 2026 rate path shifts materially, that can change earnings power even if trading holds up. [34]
What to watch specifically on Dec. 26, 2025
With U.S. markets returning from a holiday break, these are the practical “open‑to‑first‑hour” items that can matter most for HOOD:
- Prediction markets headlines: anything involving the CFTC, state-level challenges, or competitor launches can spill over quickly. [35]
- Crypto price action: Robinhood’s transaction revenue mix in 2025 has been heavily influenced by crypto surges (as shown in Q3 results). If crypto is moving sharply, HOOD often reacts. [36]
- “Holiday-thin” liquidity: Dec. 24 was an early close and Dec. 25 was closed, meaning positioning can be uneven. NYSE confirms the Dec. 24 early close and standard core hours for normal sessions. [37]
- Follow‑through from November operating data: after a mixed November tape, investors may look for signs that December re-accelerated—especially in event contracts and options. [38]
Bottom line for HOOD into the Dec. 26 open
Robinhood enters the Dec. 26 session as a stock still defined by outsized 2025 momentum—but increasingly supported by concrete fundamentals: record Q3 revenue and profits, rapidly growing product lines, and recurring signals of platform scaling (assets, margin, Gold subscribers). [39]
The near-term debate is whether the market continues to reward Robinhood as it shifts from “brokerage app” to a broader financial platform with prediction-market infrastructure ambitions, or whether regulatory uncertainty and normalizing trading volumes pull valuation expectations back toward earth. [40]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.prnewswire.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. markets.businessinsider.com, 8. markets.businessinsider.com, 9. markets.businessinsider.com, 10. markets.businessinsider.com, 11. markets.businessinsider.com, 12. markets.businessinsider.com, 13. markets.businessinsider.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.globenewswire.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. markets.businessinsider.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.globenewswire.com, 34. www.globenewswire.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.globenewswire.com, 37. www.nyse.com, 38. markets.businessinsider.com, 39. www.globenewswire.com, 40. www.reuters.com
