Robinhood Stock (HOOD) Jumps on Crypto Rebound: Latest News, Earnings Beat and 2026 Forecast

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is back in the spotlight. On Thursday, 4 December 2025, HOOD is trading around $133–134 per share, up roughly 6% on the day, after another crypto‑driven surge in trading activity. That puts Robinhood’s market value near $120 billion and leaves the stock only about 13–18% below its October all‑time high, while still hundreds of percent above its spring lows. ^[1]

After a year defined by parabolic gains, explosive earnings growth and aggressive product expansion, investors are now trying to decide whether HOOD is still a buy — or already priced for perfection. Here’s a detailed, news‑focused rundown of everything that matters today, 4 December 2025 for Robinhood stock.

HOOD stock today: price, performance and volatility

As of Thursday’s session:

Price: HOOD opened at $133.64. ^[2]
Market cap: ~$120.2 billion. ^[3]
Valuation: Trailing P/E ~55 and PEG ratio around 2.8, implying investors are paying a premium for growth. ^[4]
52‑week range:$29.66 – $153.86, with the record high set on 6 October 2025. ^[5]
Volatility: Beta of ~2.4 and more than 60 trading days this year with moves greater than 5%, underscoring just how fast HOOD can move in either direction. ^[6]

From a performance standpoint, 2025 has been extraordinary:

HOOD surged about 418% from its April 7 low near $29.66 to the October 6 peak at $153.86. ^[7]
At roughly $133 today, the stock is still more than 300% above that April low, even after an autumn correction of around 18–20%. ^[8]
Depending on the data source, HOOD is up roughly 230–300% in 2025 alone, making it one of the best‑performing new S&P 500 constituents. TechStock²+1

Robinhood’s September addition to the S&P 500 was a major psychological and technical catalyst. S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed the stock entered the index in the September rebalance alongside AppLovin and Emcor, and multiple reports note HOOD quickly became one of the top‑performing S&P 500 members this year. ^[9]

Crypto bounce fuels this week’s rally

If you want to understand HOOD’s December moves, you need to follow Bitcoin.

Earlier this week, a sharp single‑day slide in Bitcoin and other major tokens dragged Robinhood lower, as crypto‑tied stocks like MicroStrategy, Coinbase and HOOD sold off in sympathy. ^[10]

But as Bitcoin rebounded above $90,000–$93,000, crypto‑linked names snapped back. A Motley Fool analysis published via Nasdaq on 3 December notes that crypto trading is now Robinhood’s fastest‑growing business, accounting for more than 30% of transaction‑based revenue and rising over 300% last quarter, making HOOD highly leveraged to Bitcoin volumes. ^[11]

That connection explains this week’s action:

On 2–3 December, HOOD climbed roughly 5–6% as Bitcoin rallied and short sellers were squeezed. ^[12]
On 4 December, the momentum has continued, with the stock trading about 6% higher intraday and volume tracking well above its recent average. ^[13]

Several market pieces — including a MarketMinute / Times‑Online column — frame Robinhood as one of the biggest winners of the latest crypto wave, pointing to its acquisition of Bitstamp, expansion into tokenized assets and early push into prediction markets as key differentiators. ^[14]

2025: from controversial app to profit machine

The backdrop to this price action is a remarkable earnings turnaround.

Q1 & Q2 2025: inflection to high profitability

Independent analyses of Robinhood’s 2025 results highlight a true inflection:

Q1 2025: revenue of about $927 million, up ~50% year‑over‑year, with net income around $336 million and net margin near 36%. Crypto revenue roughly doubled to ~$252 million, about 27% of total revenue, and options revenue also grew strongly. ^[15]
Q2 2025: revenue of roughly $989 million, ahead of prior guidance and about 45% higher than Q2 2024, with sustained profitability and accelerating assets under custody. ^[16]

These quarters convinced skeptics that Robinhood’s zero‑commission model could scale profitably in a world where customers trade stocks, options, crypto and more on a single app.

Q3 2025: blowout earnings and guidance

The Q3 2025 report (released 5 November) is the main fundamental driver behind HOOD’s massive rally:

Revenue: around $1.27 billion, up 100% year‑over‑year and ~29% quarter‑on‑quarter. TechStock²+1
Transaction‑based revenue:~$730 million, up ~129% YoY, powered by cryptocurrency and options trading. TechStock²+1
Net interest revenue: roughly $456 million, up about 66% YoY, reflecting higher balances and continued rate tailwinds. TechStock²
Net income: about $556 million, up more than 270% YoY, driving a net margin above 50%. TechStock²+1
Diluted EPS:$0.61, beating consensus by roughly $0.20 and far above the $0.17 earned in the prior‑year quarter. ^[17]

Over the first nine months of 2025, revenue has reached roughly $3.2 billion (up about 65% YoY) and net income about $1.3 billion (up ~158% YoY), signalling a sustained shift from growth‑at‑all‑costs to robust profitability. TechStock²+1

At the platform level, Robinhood’s October operating update shows:

Total platform assets:$343 billion at the end of October, up 115% year‑over‑year and 3% sequentially. ^[18]
Funded customers:27.1 million, up ~210,000 in a single month. ^[19]
Net deposits:$5.6 billion in October alone, implying a ~20% annualised growth rate versus September assets. ^[20]

Put differently: HOOD is no longer just a meme‑broker story. It’s a scaled, profitable fintech platform with hundreds of billions in client assets and rapidly growing fee streams.

New products: prediction markets, tokens and futures

2025 has also been a year of aggressive product expansion, much of it in areas regulators are still figuring out.

Prediction markets partnership with Kalshi

In August, Robinhood announced a partnership with Kalshi to bring sports and event‑based prediction markets (traded as contracts) to its app. A recent Motley Fool breakdown notes that by Q3 this business was generating around $115 million in annualised revenue, still only ~2.5% of Robinhood’s expected 2025 revenue but growing quickly. ^[21]

These markets are a major part of the bull narrative — opening up a new, uncorrelated revenue stream and helping keep young, trading‑oriented users engaged.

Tokenized stocks and a Layer‑2 blockchain

In mid‑2025, Robinhood announced a plan to:

Launch tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs for European users,
Build its own Layer‑2 blockchain, and
Expand its crypto suite in the EU and U.S. with features like perpetual futures and staking. ^[22]

These initiatives aim to position Robinhood at the intersection of traditional securities and blockchain‑based markets, doubling down on its crypto identity while still anchored in regulated equities and options.

Bitstamp, LedgerX and futures expansion

Robinhood has also moved aggressively on the M&A and derivatives front:

The company agreed to acquire Bitstamp, a long‑standing European crypto exchange, giving Robinhood a deeper foothold in regulated global crypto markets. ^[23]
It is integrating LedgerX, a CFTC‑regulated derivatives platform, as the backbone for prediction markets and event contracts. ^[24]
Robinhood has announced futures trading for UK customers, including index, energy and metals contracts, expanding beyond its U.S. base. ^[25]

Together, these moves are reshaping Robinhood from a simple brokerage into a multi‑asset trading and derivatives ecosystem.

TODAY’S BIG RISK HEADLINE: Connecticut crackdown on prediction markets

The flip side of this innovation is regulatory risk — and that risk is front and center today.

On 4 December 2025, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection issued cease‑and‑desist orders to Robinhood, Crypto.com and Kalshi, accusing them of operating unlicensed online sports betting via prediction‑market‑style event contracts. ^[26]

Key points from the order and reporting:

Regulators say these platforms do not hold sports betting licenses in Connecticut and that their event contracts effectively constitute illegal wagering, including for users under 21. ^[27]
The state alleges inadequate consumer protections, weak data‑security standards, poor controls against insider trading or manipulation, and marketing that could reach self‑excluded gamblers and college campuses. ^[28]
Kalshi has filed a federal lawsuit arguing its exchange is under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction and therefore exempt from state gambling rules. ^[29]
Robinhood has similarly stated that its event contracts are offered through a CFTC‑regulated entity (Robinhood Derivatives, LLC) and are structured as federally regulated derivatives, not state‑regulated sports bets. ^[30]

The outcome of these disputes could shape:

How quickly prediction markets scale in the U.S.,
Whether Robinhood can rely on event contracts as a long‑term growth engine, and
How much compliance and legal cost the firm must shoulder to protect this business line.

For now, revenue from prediction markets is small relative to Robinhood’s total, but today’s Connecticut crackdown underscores why markets attach a regulatory discount to this story.

Institutional buying vs. insider selling

Big money is piling in

New filings and today’s news flow show heavy institutional interest in HOOD:

A fresh MarketBeat alert on 4 December reports that 1832 Asset Management L.P. increased its HOOD position by 1,648.7% in Q2, to 921,300 shares worth about $86.3 million, now about 0.10% of the company. ^[31]
The same report notes that major institutions including Vanguard, Geode, WCM, Norges Bank and Kingstone Capital have all built or expanded significant positions, contributing to institutional ownership of roughly 93% of the float. ^[32]
A separate MarketBeat note today highlights Trek Financial LLC initiating a new stake of 19,561 shares (~$1.8 million) and reiterates the heavy institutional footprint. ^[33]

QuiverQuant’s analysis also shows hundreds of hedge funds and asset managers adding HOOD in recent quarters, including large increases by Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock. ^[34]

But insiders are cashing out

By contrast, insiders — especially senior executives and founders — have been significant net sellers:

Over the past six months, QuiverQuant records 110 insider trades, including 109 sales and only one purchase. ^[35]
Co‑founders Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt together have sold over 10 million shares in that period, worth well over $1.2 billion at recent prices. ^[36]
MarketBeat’s 4 December report notes that in just the last three months, insiders have sold about 3.9 million shares worth over $500 million, leaving insiders with roughly 14–15% ownership. ^[37]

Heavy insider selling at elevated valuations doesn’t automatically mean a top is in — founders often diversify — but it complicates the bull case and is something many analysts flag as a risk.

Analyst ratings, price targets and 2026 forecasts

Wall Street is broadly bullish on Robinhood, but there’s a wide range of views on upside from here.

Street consensus

According to a 4 December MarketBeat survey:

1 analyst rates HOOD “Strong Buy”,
14 rate it “Buy”,
7 rate it “Hold”,
1 rates it “Sell”,
for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus. ^[38]

The average 12‑month price target across those firms is about $136.95, only a few dollars above today’s price, with a range from roughly $47 to $180. Several recent notes — from Goldman Sachs, JMP Securities, Keefe Bruyette, Barclays and others — have raised targets into the $150–$180 band after the Q3 beat, citing stronger profitability and asset growth. ^[39]

Alternative aggregators show similarly mixed but positive views:

QuiverQuant reports 18 price targets over the last six months, with a median around $149, and notes at least 13 Buy ratings vs. 1 Sell. ^[40]
A TechStock² / TS2.Tech roundup of analyst data across MarketBeat, StockAnalysis, Benzinga and TipRanks finds average targets clustered roughly between $120 and $150, with highs near $180 and lows in the high‑$40s, reflecting disagreement over how sustainable crypto‑driven results will be. TechStock²
A Meyka AI analysis today cites alternative‑data sources suggesting around 80% of covering analysts rate HOOD a “Buy” and quote a consensus price target in the ~$117 range, though that appears to be based on a slightly different sample and methodology. ^[41]

Short‑term technical services such as StockInvest.us project modestly positive near‑term moves — for example, estimating a “fair” opening price around $130.79 for 4 December based on recent momentum and volatility — but these are model‑driven trading tools rather than fundamental forecasts. ^[42]

Revenue and EPS forecasts

Looking out to 2026, several data providers referenced in recent articles suggest:

2025 revenue around $4.3–4.5 billion, up roughly 45–50% from 2024. TechStock²+1
2026 revenue approaching or exceeding $5.2 billion, implying a still‑strong but moderating growth rate. TechStock²+1
EPS projections vary by source and whether figures are GAAP or adjusted, but most cluster around $1.3–1.9 for 2025 and roughly $2.0–2.3 for 2026, which would support 20%+ annual earnings growth if achieved. ^[43]

Valuation commentary is sharply divided:

Bullish quantitative takes (such as a widely discussed Tickeron piece) argue that Robinhood’s 418% rally is backed by true margin expansion — including net margins in the mid‑30s and EBITDA margins near 58% — and see 23–58% upside from here based on targets in the $155–$180 range and continued growth in prediction markets and international crypto. ^[44]
Skeptical voices, especially from Motley Fool and some valuation‑focused analysts, warn that HOOD’s price‑to‑sales ratio of roughly 25–28 is more than double its historical average. They argue the stock could fall 50–60% if revenue growth slows or crypto volumes revert, as they have in prior cycles. ^[45]

What the latest commentary says: bulls vs. bears

Bull case: a scaled fintech winning the new cycle

The bullish narrative, echoed in pieces from Zacks, Finviz, Tickeron, and various crypto‑linked market columns, rests on a few pillars:

Explosive earnings momentum
HOOD has beaten expectations for several quarters in a row, with Q3 revenue doubling YoY and net margins above 50%, a rare combination even among high‑growth tech names. ^[46]
Crypto and prediction markets as secular growth drivers
With crypto trading now a third or more of transaction revenue and prediction markets still in their infancy, bulls see multi‑year tailwinds if digital assets and event contracts continue to enter the financial mainstream. ^[47]
Platform scale and asset growth
The jump to $343 billion in platform assets and 27+ million funded accounts — with strong net deposits — suggests HOOD is attracting wealthier, more engaged customers, not just meme traders. ^[48]
Index inclusion and institutional validation
Entry into the S&P 500, massive buying by global asset managers, and inclusion in “top tech / crypto stocks to buy” lists from Zacks and others reinforce the idea that HOOD has become a core fintech holding rather than a fringe meme play. ^[49]

Bear case: cyclicality, regulation and lofty valuation

The bearish counter‑arguments, laid out in recent notes from Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha and valuation‑focused outlets, focus on:

Dependence on risky trading behavior
A large portion of Robinhood’s transaction revenue comes from short‑dated options and crypto trading, activities that historically boom during bull markets but collapse when volatility or prices turn against retail investors. Past cycles saw Robinhood’s crypto revenue drop by 50–75% in a year. ^[50]
Rich multiples vs. history
At a P/E above 50 and a P/S multiple well above its post‑IPO average, skeptics argue Robinhood must deliver flawless execution and maintain high‑20s or higher earnings growth for several years just to justify the current price. ^[51]
Regulatory overhang
Between the Connecticut cease‑and‑desist on prediction markets, ongoing scrutiny of crypto trading and the complexity of derivatives regulation, bears worry that regulators could limit Robinhood’s highest‑growth products or raise compliance costs materially. ^[52]
Insider selling
The scale and pace of insider sales — more than $500 million in stock sold over three months — is viewed by some as a signal that insiders see limited near‑term upside at current valuations. ^[53]

What 4 December 2025 means for HOOD investors

Putting today’s news and recent developments together:

Momentum remains firmly bullish.
HOOD is riding a powerful combination of crypto strength, index inclusion, and accelerating fundamentals. Short‑term traders are treating it as a high‑beta way to express views on Bitcoin and retail risk appetite.
Fundamentals have genuinely improved.
The company is now solidly profitable, with hundreds of billions in client assets, double‑digit net‑deposit growth and expanding product lines across crypto, prediction markets and derivatives.
Regulatory and business‑model risks are rising, not falling.
Today’s Connecticut crackdown is a reminder that regulators are still deciding where the line sits between innovative derivatives and unlicensed gambling. Future rule changes could reshape or restrict some of the very products driving HOOD’s growth.
Valuation leaves little room for error.
With the stock trading near the middle of its recent range but far above historical valuation multiples, even a mild slowdown in trading volumes or a negative regulatory headline could spark sharp pullbacks, as seen after previous crypto booms.

For now, Wall Street’s consensus remains cautiously positive — “Moderate Buy” with average targets slightly above the current price, and some high‑profile upgrades pointing to further upside if current trends persist. But a vocal minority of analysts argue the risk‑reward has become less compelling after a 400%+ rally.

As always, this article is informational only and not investment advice. Anyone considering HOOD should weigh:

their own risk tolerance,
their view on crypto and prediction markets as long‑term businesses,
and how comfortable they are owning a high‑volatility, regulation‑sensitive stock that can move double digits in a single day.