Robinhood Stock (HOOD): What to Know Before the Market Opens on December 8, 2025

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) heads into Monday’s session as one of the most closely watched financial stocks on Wall Street. After a spectacular multi‑year rally, a volatile first week of December, fresh regulatory pressure on its prediction markets business, and a packed pipeline of new AI and derivatives initiatives, traders are bracing for more big moves.

Below is a concise briefing on everything investors should know about Robinhood stock before the U.S. market opens on Monday, December 8, 2025.

1. Robinhood stock price and recent performance

Where the stock closed on Friday

Robinhood closed around $131.95 on Friday, December 5, down about 3.7% on the day, after previously rallying sharply earlier in the week. ^[1]
Over the past five sessions, HOOD swung between roughly $119 and $137 as traders reacted to crypto volatility and shifting risk sentiment across growth and fintech names. ^[2]

Longer‑term performance

Over the past year (through December 3), Robinhood stock is up nearly 246%, turning a hypothetical $1,000 investment into about $3,460, according to recent analyses. ^[3]
Over the past three years, HOOD has been a full 10‑bagger, rising around 1,000%, per multiple independent reviews of the stock’s long‑term performance. ^[4]

In other words: Robinhood heads into Monday’s open already priced as a high‑growth winner, with expectations to match.

2. Fundamentals: Q3 2025 earnings were a blowout

Robinhood’s latest quarterly results are a big reason the stock has run so far, so fast.

Q3 2025 headline numbers

Recent coverage of the Q3 2025 report shows that Robinhood delivered: ^[5]

Revenue: About $1.27 billion, up 100% year over year, well ahead of Wall Street expectations of around $1.15 billion
Earnings per share (EPS):$0.61, beating the consensus estimate by roughly $0.20
Profitability: Net margin of about 52% and return on equity above 21%
Growth vs. 2024: Revenue up 100% and EPS up from $0.17 in the same quarter a year ago

Earlier in the year, Q2 2025 results also showed strong momentum, with revenue up about 45% year over year to $989 million, supported by rising trading activity and net deposits. ^[6]

What analysts expect next

According to aggregated analyst forecasts: ^[7]

Full‑year 2025 revenue is projected around $4.57 billion, up almost 55% from 2024
2026 revenue is expected to climb to roughly $5.59 billion, another 22% increase
EPS is projected to rise from about $1.56 (2024) to $2.07 (2025) and $2.57 (2026)

Heading into Monday’s open, the fundamental story is clear: Wall Street is still modeling rapid, double‑digit growth in both revenue and earnings over the next two years.

3. Wall Street’s latest Robinhood stock forecasts

Fresh rating and price‑target updates in late November and early December are crucial context for traders on December 8.

Consensus view

A broad survey of 21–23 analysts shows Robinhood rated “Buy” or “Moderate Buy” on average, with more “Buy” than “Hold” ratings and very few outright “Sell” calls. ^[8]
One recent breakdown shows 1 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 7 Hold and 1 Sell, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus. ^[9]

Price targets are more cautious than the hype

There’s a notable gap between Robinhood’s long‑term hype and near‑term price targets:

Average 12‑month price target (StockAnalysis): about $119.62, implying ~9% downside from Friday’s close, with a range from $47 (low) to $180 (high). ^[10]
MarketBeat / institutional surveys: show a slightly higher average target around $136.95, only modestly above the current price. ^[11]
Another widely cited forecast from Public.com lists a consensus target around $134, essentially flat versus current levels. ^[12]

Notable recent analyst actions

Recent months have brought a wave of target hikes after the earnings beat and prediction‑markets expansion: ^[13]

Citizens: raised HOOD to $180 (Buy / “Market Outperform”)
Barclays: lifted target to $168 (Buy / Overweight)
Mizuho: boosted target to $172 (Outperform)
Cantor Fitzgerald: raised target to $155 (Overweight)
Needham: reiterated Buy with a $145 target on December 5, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from recent levels. ^[14]

Zacks Investment Research has also highlighted Robinhood as “well poised for a surge”, pointing to its earnings surprise and positive estimate revisions, and upgraded the stock to a top‑tier rating in early December. ^[15]

Takeaway for Monday: Wall Street is broadly bullish on the business, but price targets now cluster close to the current share price, reflecting the big run‑up already in the rearview mirror.

4. Big money vs. insiders: conflicting signals from recent flows

New 13F filings and institutional alerts in the last two days (December 6–7) tell an important story ahead of Monday’s open.

Heavy institutional buying

Multiple large investors have disclosed substantial positions in Robinhood: ^[16]

Clear Street LLC opened a new Q2 stake of about 1.25 million shares, worth roughly $116.7 million, making HOOD its 8th‑largest holding. ^[17]
Jump Financial LLC boosted its position by more than 2,400%, to around 302,877 shares valued at about $28.4 million.
Cresset Asset Management increased its stake by 13.4%, holding over $9.7 million in HOOD shares. ^[18]
Other big names like WCM Investment Management, Norges Bank, Kingstone Capital, Vanguard, Invesco, and 1832 Asset Management have also dramatically scaled up their holdings during 2025. ^[19]

Altogether, roughly 93% of Robinhood’s float is now held by institutions and hedge funds, according to several recent surveys. ^[20]

Aggressive insider selling

At the same time, insiders have been selling heavily into strength:

Over the last three months, insiders have sold about 4.1 million shares, worth roughly $525 million. ^[21]
Recent disclosures show sales by senior executives including CEO Vladimir Tenev, Chief Legal Officer Daniel Gallagher Jr., Chief Brokerage Officer Steven Quirk, and CTO Jeffrey Pinner, among others. ^[22]
After these transactions, insiders still control around 14–15% of outstanding shares, but their stake has been trending lower. ^[23]

How to read this into Monday’s open

Institutional demand supports the longer‑term bull case.
Persistent insider selling can be interpreted as either routine profit‑taking after a 10x move or a sign that management sees the risk/reward as more balanced at current levels.

Both dynamics will be on traders’ minds as they position into the new week.

5. Prediction markets and derivatives: Robinhood’s new growth engine

One of the biggest narrative drivers for HOOD heading into December 8 is its push into prediction markets and derivatives, which has already moved the stock and is likely to keep doing so.

Event contracts are exploding

In 2025, Robinhood expanded “event contracts” (yes/no contracts tied to real‑world outcomes like economic data, elections, and sports).
Investor presentations and CEO commentary indicate event contracts more than doubled quarter‑over‑quarter, with over 2–2.3 billion contracts traded in Q3 2025 and around 2.5 billion in October alone, more than all of Q3. ^[24]
With fees around $0.02 per contract (split with partner Kalshi), Q3’s volume alone is estimated to translate to roughly $20 million in annualized revenue today — still only a low‑single‑digit percentage of total revenue but growing fast. ^[25]

MarketBeat and Nasdaq analyses argue that, if growth continues, prediction markets could account for 5% or more of Robinhood’s revenue within a few years, helping diversify away from traditional brokerage and pure crypto trading. ^[26]

LedgerX acquisition and Susquehanna partnership

A major November announcement deepened this strategic shift:

Robinhood struck a deal with Susquehanna International Group to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, a regulated U.S. derivatives platform previously tied to FTX’s bankruptcy estate. ^[27]
The deal gives Robinhood exchange and clearinghouse infrastructure for futures and options, setting it up to run a regulated derivatives and prediction markets venue starting in 2026. ^[28]
MarketBeat commentators describe this as an important “moat‑building” move that could let Robinhood compete with established derivatives giants and crypto platforms in a fast‑growing niche. ^[29]

December 16 AI & prediction markets event

Just days after Monday’s session, Robinhood plans a high‑profile event:

On December 16, CEO Vlad Tenev will host an event (billed as “YES/NO”) to showcase new AI features and prediction‑market tools designed to give retail traders better analytics and outcome‑based trading ideas. ^[30]
Coverage of the event preview suggests a focus on AI‑driven insights, smarter contract discovery, and richer data around event trading, which could increase engagement and monetization per user. ^[31]

For Monday’s open: any new commentary, leaks, or analyst previews tied to this AI/prediction‑market event could influence short‑term sentiment.

6. Regulation watch: Connecticut crackdown and state‑level risk

The biggest new overhang for Robinhood this week is regulatory, and it’s squarely aimed at prediction markets.

Connecticut orders Robinhood Derivatives to cease prediction‑market operations

On December 4, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease‑and‑desist orders to three “prediction market platforms”: Kalshi, Robinhood Derivatives, and Crypto.com, accusing them of running unlicensed sports‑wagering operations. ^[32]

Key points from Connecticut’s action:

The state argues that “sports event contracts” are effectively sports bets, which only licensed sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics) may offer. ^[33]
Regulators ordered the platforms to stop advertising and offering such contracts in Connecticut and to allow residents to withdraw their funds. ^[34]
Officials cited a lack of age controls, consumer protections, and integrity safeguards, calling out risks such as insider betting, unpaid winnings, and marketing to people under 21. ^[35]

Robinhood’s response and broader state backlash

Robinhood maintains that its event contracts are federally regulated derivatives overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a CFTC‑registered entity, not gambling products under state law. ^[36]
Connecticut’s move follows a growing list of states challenging prediction markets. At least ten states have taken actions against Kalshi and similar platforms, including New York and Massachusetts, with lawsuits arguing they are unlicensed sportsbooks. ^[37]

Why this matters Monday

Prediction markets are one of Robinhood’s fastest‑growing new businesses. State‑level crackdowns could:

Limit the geographic reach and growth of event contracts,
Increase compliance and legal costs, and
Delay or complicate the rollout of new products highlighted at the December 16 event.

Traders will be watching closely for any additional state actions or federal commentary that hits wires before or during Monday’s session.

7. Crypto connection: Bitcoin and Robinhood’s short‑term moves

If you care about HOOD on Monday, you must watch crypto — especially Bitcoin.

Crypto is a major revenue driver

Recent analysis notes that crypto trading now accounts for more than 30% of Robinhood’s transaction‑based revenue, with crypto trading revenue growing more than 300% last quarter alone. ^[38]

That means HOOD often trades like a leveraged play on crypto sentiment.

December’s roller coaster

On December 1, HOOD shares dropped more than 6–7%, as part of a broader sell‑off in crypto‑linked names after fresh regulatory pressure and a steep Bitcoin pullback. ^[39]
A widely cited column, “Why Robinhood Stock Is Crashing Today,” attributed the slump to renewed crypto crackdowns in China and falling Bitcoin prices, which threaten Robinhood’s fastest‑growing revenue stream. ^[40]
On December 2–3, Robinhood rebounded strongly as Bitcoin rallied, with one report noting HOOD was up about 6% intraday during a midweek crypto short squeeze. ^[41]

The pattern going into December 8

Recent commentary from The Motley Fool and Nasdaq repeatedly emphasizes the same dynamic:

When Bitcoin spikes, Robinhood often rips higher. When Bitcoin slumps, Robinhood tends to slide. ^[42]

For Monday’s open, traders will be watching:

Weekend crypto price action,
Any new regulatory headlines related to digital assets, and
Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which analysts say are driving a big part of the new crypto trading wave. ^[43]

8. Other growth levers: tokens, staking and social trading

Beyond prediction markets and crypto trading volumes, Robinhood has several other initiatives that shape its medium‑term story.

Stock tokens and Layer 2 blockchain

In June 2025, Robinhood announced a plan to launch “stock tokens” for EU customers, giving them blockchain‑based exposure to U.S. stocks, alongside a new Layer 2 blockchain and an expanded crypto product suite, including perpetual futures and staking in Europe and the U.S. ^[44]

This aligns with a broader strategy to:

Deepen Robinhood’s footprint in crypto and tokenized assets, and
Create new, recurring fee streams beyond simple equity trades.

Staking made simple

In September, Robinhood began promoting new staking features for Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), positioning itself as a user‑friendly gateway to on‑chain yield products. Coverage highlighted this as part of a push to keep crypto traders on‑platform by offering more ways to earn and stay engaged. ^[45]

Social/copy trading on the horizon

Reports from Fortune and other outlets note that Robinhood is preparing a “copy trading”‑style product for launch in 2026, aimed at cleaning up the chaotic world of social media stock tips by requiring verification of trade histories. ^[46]

All of these projects point to the same strategic goal: turn Robinhood from a pure brokerage into a broader trading and fintech ecosystem, with services spanning stocks, options, futures, crypto, tokens, prediction markets and social investing.

9. Key risks and valuation heading into Monday

Even bullish analyses acknowledge that Robinhood’s risk/reward profile is not low‑risk at current levels.

Valuation is rich

HOOD currently trades at a price‑to‑earnings ratio in the mid‑50s and a PEG (price/earnings‑to‑growth) ratio near 3, significantly higher than traditional brokers. ^[47]
Several articles warn that such a valuation makes Robinhood vulnerable if trading volumes slow, crypto cools, or a broader market correction hits high‑beta growth names. ^[48]

Volatility is extreme

Robinhood lost about 13% in November alone, despite being up triple digits over the year, underscoring how quickly sentiment can swing. ^[49]
Recent weeks have seen single‑day moves of +10% or more tied to prediction‑market headlines and crypto news. ^[50]

Macro & rate risk

Analysts have also flagged that:

Robinhood earns significant income from net interest (cash balances and margin), which could be pressured if interest rates continue to fall, even as trading activity stays strong. ^[51]

Regulatory risk (again)

Beyond state actions on prediction markets, there’s ongoing risk around payment for order flow, crypto regulation, and tokenization rules in both the U.S. and Europe. Recent articles stress that these factors are difficult to model and could affect long‑term margins. ^[52]

10. Checklist for traders before the December 8, 2025 opening bell

Here’s a quick action‑oriented checklist of what to monitor before markets open:

Crypto prices overnight:
- Bitcoin and other major coins, especially if there’s fresh policy news from China, the U.S., or the EU. ^[53]
Any new state or federal updates on prediction markets:
- Follow‑up statements from Connecticut, plus any hints from other state regulators or the CFTC. ^[54]
Pre‑market trading in HOOD:
- Check for unusual volume or gaps tied to weekend headlines or fresh analyst calls. ^[55]
Analyst commentary and media previews of the December 16 AI/prediction‑markets event, which could set expectations for user growth and monetization. ^[56]
Macro calendar for the week:
- Any major inflation data, Fed speakers, or macro shocks that might sway risk‑on/risk‑off sentiment and thereby Robinhood’s trading volumes. ^[57]

11. Bottom line: how Robinhood looks going into Monday

Heading into the December 8, 2025 open, Robinhood stock sits at the intersection of explosive growth and elevated risk:

The core business is booming, with revenue and earnings growing at high double‑digit rates and Q3 2025 results far ahead of expectations. ^[58]
New initiatives in prediction markets, derivatives (via LedgerX), AI tools, tokens, and staking give Robinhood multiple avenues for future expansion. ^[59]
Institutional investors are piling in, but insiders are selling aggressively, and valuation leaves limited room for error. ^[60]
The stock remains highly sensitive to crypto and regulatory headlines, making short‑term moves difficult to predict.

For news readers and traders alike, the story for Monday’s open is not simply “bull vs bear,” but how much of Robinhood’s multi‑year transformation is already priced in—and whether prediction markets and AI‑driven trading tools can justify the next leg of its rally.

References