NEW YORK, Jan 14, 2026, 16:09 EST
Shares of Rocket Lab Corp surged 6% on Wednesday, closing at a record high of $91.80 after reaching $92.18 intraday. The stock held steady in after-hours trading, according to data from StockAnalysis.com. 1
The shift keeps attention fixed on one of the most heavily traded U.S.-listed space stocks, with price swings now reflecting defense contract news as much as rocket launches. Investors are betting that Rocket Lab can convert government contracts into more stable revenue streams.
Expectations are stacking up for 2026, making it crucial now. The company continues to invest heavily in development, while the stock trades as if upcoming milestones will hit their targets on time.
A Zacks Equity Research note shared on Yahoo Finance Tuesday reported that Rocket Lab underperformed the broader market in the previous session. The stock closed at $86.58, slipping 1.5% from its prior close. 2
Rocket Lab’s market cap has surged to around $47.5 billion, up roughly 251% over the past year, with revenue jumping 52.42%, according to Investing.com citing InvestingPro data. InvestingPro also noted the stock is trading above its fair-value estimate and flagged it as “overbought,” suggesting a potential pullback after the sharp run. Baird raised its price target to $100 from $83, while Needham boosted theirs to $90 from $63, following Rocket Lab’s $816 million Space Development Agency contract to build 18 missile-tracking satellites. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Overweight rating with a $72 target. 3
Danil Sereda, chief investment analyst at a family office, told Seeking Alpha the planned Neutron launch in mid-2026 stands as “a major catalyst” for RKLB, targeting the medium-lift constellation market. He noted Rocket Lab is closing in on EBITDA break-even as Neutron R&D peaks and gross margins approach a 44% non-GAAP goal, which excludes certain items meant to distort core results. Sereda also highlighted Space Development Agency contracts exceeding $1.3 billion in total. 4
Cantor Fitzgerald stuck with its Overweight rating on Rocket Lab, calling it the “premier alternative to SpaceX,” according to Benzinga. The firm pointed to Rocket Lab’s 21 Electron launches planned for 2025, which would bring its total successful missions to 79. Their contracted backlog — work signed but not yet recognized as revenue — stands at $1.1 billion, with management forecasting about 57% of that to convert into revenue over the next 12 months. Benzinga also noted Cantor’s focus on Neutron’s debut flight in the first half of 2026, seeing it as a crucial test for the rocket positioned to compete directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9. 5
Yet the stock has been volatile, bouncing sharply from day to day. What comes next hinges on execution. Any delays, a botched launch, or cost overruns on satellite production could sour sentiment fast.
Traders are keeping an eye on progress with Neutron’s development and initial steps related to the Space Development Agency contract, as Rocket Lab moves to convert a growing backlog into revenue.
