Roku Stock (ROKU) on December 4, 2025: Guggenheim Upgrade, Insider Moves and 2026 Outlook

Roku, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) is heading into the crucial holiday quarter with its share price pulling back from recent highs, even as Wall Street raises price targets and fresh data confirms an improving profitability and connected‑TV (CTV) ad story.

On Thursday, December 4, 2025, Guggenheim lifted its price target on Roku to $115 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing stronger‑than‑expected growth drivers into 2026 and rising CTV ad demand. ^[1] At the same time, new insider and institutional filings, robust third‑quarter results, and a growing web of ad‑tech and smart‑TV partnerships are reshaping the risk–reward profile for Roku stock.

Below is a full breakdown of where ROKU stands today for investors tracking the name on Google News and Discover.

Roku stock today: price, performance and trading range

As of mid‑afternoon trading on December 4, 2025, Roku shares were changing hands around $91.90, modestly lower than Wednesday’s close of about $92.98. ^[2] Intraday, the stock has traded between roughly $91.74 and $93.60, with an opening print near $93.52.

Key snapshot metrics from recent trading:

Market capitalization: ≈ $13.7 billion ^[3]
12‑month range: about $52.43 (low) to $116.66 (high) ^[4]
50‑day simple moving average: around $99–99.5
200‑day simple moving average: around $89–91 ^[5]
Beta: close to 2.0, underlining above‑market volatility ^[6]

Price performance has been strong in 2025 despite recent weakness:

Roku shares are up roughly 30–32% year to date, comfortably ahead of major U.S. equity indices. ^[7]
Over the last six months, the stock has gained about 26%, according to data cited in Guggenheim’s latest note. ^[8]
At the year’s high just above $108, Roku was up around 46% for 2025 before its pullback into the mid‑$90s. ^[9]

That pattern—strong gains followed by consolidation—is important backdrop for today’s fresh wave of analyst optimism.

Wall Street turns more bullish: Guggenheim leads the charge

Guggenheim: $115 target on stronger CTV thesis

In a note published the morning of December 4, Guggenheim raised its Roku price target from $110 to $115 while maintaining a Buy rating. At around $92–93 per share, that implies upside of roughly 20–25%. ^[10]

Key points from the Guggenheim update, as summarized by Investing.com:

The firm argues Roku has the “core CTV building blocks” and incremental revenue drivers needed to deliver above‑consensus growth into 2026. ^[11]
Guggenheim increased its Q4 2025 and 2026 estimates for revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting growing confidence in Roku’s monetization strategy. ^[12]
The thesis leans heavily on connected‑TV ad demand and an expanding list of demand‑side platform (DSP) partners, including Amazon, plus newer revenue streams such as data fees on off‑platform inventory. ^[13]
Guggenheim also cites event‑driven tailwinds: the Winter Olympics, political advertising in 2026 and World Cup‑related spending, all of which could drive higher streaming hours and ad budgets. ^[14]

The note highlights Roku’s 16–17% trailing revenue growth and improving profitability, while acknowledging that the company is still in the early stages of sustained earnings power. ^[15]

Broader analyst sentiment: consensus “Buy,” double‑digit upside

Aggregated data from several providers shows a broadly bullish, though not unanimous, Street view.

According to StockAnalysis, 19 analysts currently cover Roku with an overall rating of “Buy” and an average 12‑month price target of about $111.63, implying upside of roughly 21% from current levels. The target range runs from $95 on the low end to $145 at the high end. ^[16]
Recommendation mix over the past year has tilted positive: roughly 6 “Strong Buy”, 8 “Buy” and 5 “Hold” ratings, with no active “Sell” ratings in the latest snapshot. ^[17]

Another widely followed dataset from MarketBeat—which has a slightly larger analyst universe—shows:

27 analysts with an average target of about $113–114 per share
A high target of $145 and low of $70
Implied upside of around 22–23% from a recent reference price near $92. ^[18]

Recent notable actions include:

Guggenheim: $110 → $115, Strong Buy (Dec 4, 2025) ^[19]
Citizens: reiteration of $145 target with a Buy rating (Dec 2, 2025) ^[20]
UBS: Hold, target raised $95 → $103 (Nov 3, 2025) ^[21]
Piper Sandler: upgrade from Hold to Buy, target $88 → $135 (Nov 3, 2025) ^[22]
Wells Fargo: Buy, target nudged $113 → $116 (Oct 31, 2025) ^[23]
Rosenblatt: target lifted $101 → $106 with a Neutral stance. ^[24]

Benzinga’s daily price‑target roundup on Thursday spotlighted Roku among the names where Wall Street currently sees roughly mid‑20% potential upside based on the latest cluster of targets. ^[25]

Takeaway: The consensus narrative on December 4 is that Roku is a volatile growth name, but one where the Street—particularly on the buy‑side of the sell‑side—expects double‑digit percentage upside over the next year.

Earnings check: Q3 2025 marked a profitability milestone

Roku’s most recent earnings report, covering the third quarter of 2025, is central to today’s bullish commentary.

From the company’s shareholder letter and filings: ^[26]

Total net revenue came in around $1.21 billion, up roughly 14% year on year.
Platform revenue—the high‑margin ad and services engine—grew to about $1.06 billion, an increase of 17% year on year, driven by CTV advertising and subscription sign‑ups. ^[27]
Devices revenue was about $146 million, down modestly year on year and still generating negative gross margin, consistent with Roku’s strategy of using hardware primarily to expand the installed base of Roku OS TVs and players. ^[28]
Operating income turned positive, at roughly $9.5 million, versus an operating loss in the same period a year earlier—Roku’s first positive operating quarter since 2021. ^[29]
Net income was about $24.8 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, compared with a net loss in the prior‑year quarter. ^[30]
Streaming hours climbed around 12% to 36.5 billion in the quarter, reflecting ongoing engagement growth. ^[31]

The balance sheet and cash‑flow profile are another bright spot:

Roku ended Q3 with around $2.3 billion in cash and short‑term investments, giving it a meaningful liquidity buffer. ^[32]
Trailing 12‑month free cash flow exceeded $440 million, with management emphasizing a focus on growing free cash flow per share. ^[33]
The company repurchased $50 million of stock in Q3 under a $400 million authorization and continued a net share‑settlement program that partially offsets stock‑based compensation dilution; total dilution in Q3 was under 30 basis points. ^[34]

Guidance also moved in the right direction. On the Q3 call, Roku indicated:

A Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook of about $145 million, the highest in company history.
Expected improvement of full‑year EBITDA margin by roughly 200 basis points, to around 8.4%, versus 2024. ^[35]
Platform revenue growth guidance in the mid‑teens including political and partner contributions, and roughly high‑teens growth excluding those factors. ^[36]

This combination—double‑digit revenue growth, positive operating income, and healthy free cash flow—is the backbone of today’s more constructive analyst tone.

Strategic partnerships and product moves: building a bigger ad machine

The Street’s enthusiasm is not just about the P&L; it’s also about Roku’s emerging ad‑tech positioning.

Amazon Ads partnership: addressable reach at scale

One of the most important 2025 developments is Roku’s alliance with Amazon Ads:

In June, Roku and Amazon announced a pact that allows advertisers to tap CTV ad inventory across both Roku and Amazon Fire TV via Amazon’s demand‑side platform (DSP). ^[37]
Together, the platforms represent roughly 80% of the U.S. streaming device market, according to the companies, giving advertisers the ability to plan and measure campaigns across a very large combined footprint. ^[38]
The partnership uses a custom identity layer that lets Amazon’s DSP recognize logged‑in viewers across Roku OS and devices, enabling more precise audience targeting and measurement. ^[39]

Guggenheim’s December 4 note explicitly points to Roku’s expanding DSP partnerships—including Amazon—as a key driver of above‑consensus growth and incremental revenue into 2026. ^[40]

FreeWheel, self‑serve APIs and other ad‑tech upgrades

Roku has also been deepening ties with other major ad‑tech players:

An expanded partnership with FreeWheel (a Comcast unit) now incorporates Roku into FreeWheel’s Streaming Hub, enabling buyers to access Roku’s premium CTV inventory directly through FreeWheel’s systems. ^[41]
In November, Roku launched a self‑serve API suite for CTV, giving developers direct access to its first‑party ad capabilities for targeting, measurement and real‑time optimization—aimed particularly at performance and smaller advertisers. ^[42]

These moves align with a broader industry shift toward performance‑oriented CTV advertising, automation and more sophisticated attribution—trends that Roku’s own Q3 earnings recap highlighted as tailwinds. ^[43]

Smart‑TV expansion: Vestel and global footprint

On the hardware and OS front, Roku has continued to extend its reach:

A smart‑TV partnership with Vestel, announced in September, brings Roku OS to Finlux‑branded TVs in the U.K., with expansion to other brands planned. ^[44]
Roku remains the #1 TV operating system in the U.S., Canada and Mexico by unit sales and is present in over 90 million streaming households worldwide, according to company and third‑party data. ^[45]

Management continues to frame the devices business as a scale engine for the higher‑margin platform segment, even as device gross margins run negative.

Holiday season & engagement: a key near‑term catalyst

The timing of all this matters. Roku is now entering what is typically its strongest season.

An analysis from InvestorsObserver on December 3 notes that 2025 has been a year of “key financial milestones” for Roku, including its return to operating profitability, just as it heads into the holiday gift cycle—a period that historically drives a spike in new account activations. ^[46]

Data cited in that piece and Roku’s own marketing materials highlight that:

Christmas Day is often Roku’s largest single day of new account creation, as consumers set up new Roku TVs and devices.
In the week following Christmas, average streaming time per account typically jumps by nearly three hours, boosting ad impressions and subscription opportunities. ^[47]

From a stock perspective, this comes after a sizable run:

Roku shares broke out to multi‑year highs around $108 following the Q3 earnings beat.
After a broader market pullback in November, the stock slipped into the mid‑$90s, testing the former breakout area near $105 as a potential resistance level. ^[48]

Investors are now watching whether holiday‑driven engagement—and subsequent Q4 metrics—can justify the rally and support the higher price targets.

Insider selling vs. institutional buying: what the flows show

Insider activity

Recent filings show several Roku insiders trimming positions:

Matthew C. Banks, Roku’s VP and Chief Accounting Officer, sold 731 shares of Class A stock on December 1, 2025, for proceeds of roughly $70,000, implying a sale price in the mid‑$90s. ^[49]
Neil Hunt, a Roku director, has also sold shares in multiple transactions in late 2025. Forms and news summaries indicate sales of roughly 2,000 shares at prices generally in the mid‑$90s to low‑$100s, with total proceeds in the low six figures. ^[50]

Some investors instinctively read insider selling as a bearish signal, but context matters: many of these transactions appear to be modest relative to overall holdings and often follow substantial share‑price appreciation.

Institutional flows

On the other side of the tape, institutional ownership data shows ongoing interest:

A new filing on December 4 shows Trek Financial LLC acquiring 83,463 shares of Roku. ^[51]
MarketBeat’s rolling news feed over the past few weeks has highlighted new or increased positions from firms such as Vanguard Group Inc., Charles Schwab Investment Management, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management and various hedge funds, alongside some funds trimming exposure. ^[52]

Taken together, the flows suggest a normal mix of profit‑taking by insiders after a strong run and continued institutional interest at current levels, rather than a clear‑cut signal in either direction.

Street forecasts: revenue, earnings and valuation into 2026

Consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis and other data providers offer a window into how analysts expect Roku to evolve over the next two years. ^[53]

Revenue & earnings trajectory

According to aggregated Wall Street estimates:

2024 revenue is estimated around $4.11 billion.
2025 revenue is projected to climb to roughly $4.8–4.9 billion, an increase of about 16%.
2026 revenue is forecast near $5.4 billion, representing another ~13% growth year. ^[54]

On the profitability front:

Roku is expected to swing from a 2024 GAAP EPS loss of roughly –$0.89 to positive EPS of about $0.33 in 2025.
2026 EPS is projected around $1.22, implying triple‑digit percentage growth off the newly positive base. ^[55]

These estimates are consistent with management’s own guidance for improving EBITDA margins and the early evidence from Q3 that operating leverage is starting to show up in the P&L. ^[56]

Valuation snapshot

Analyst models also imply a wide band of valuation outcomes:

At around $92 per share and a market cap near $13.7 billion, Roku trades at roughly 2.8–2.9x 2025 consensus revenue, based on projected sales of about $4.8–4.9 billion. ^[57]
On earnings, StockAnalysis data shows an implied forward P/E near 280x 2025 EPS of $0.33, dropping to around 75x on 2026 EPS of $1.22. ^[58]

Those multiples are high in absolute terms and underscore why many analysts frame Roku as a “show‑me” growth story: the stock price assumes that current revenue momentum and margin expansion continue for several years, and any disappointment could lead to sharp repricing.

Macro backdrop: rate‑cut hopes and consumer discretionary sentiment

Roku is often grouped with consumer discretionary and growth technology names, which tend to be sensitive to interest‑rate expectations.

A recent Yahoo Finance piece on “discretionary stocks to buy” highlighted Roku alongside companies like Carnival (CCL) and Ralph Lauren (RL) as potential beneficiaries of improving economic data and revived hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. ^[59]

Even modest declines in long‑term yields can help:

Lower discount rates support the present value of future cash flows, which is especially important for high‑growth, high‑multiple names like Roku.
A more benign macro backdrop can also bolster advertising budgets and consumer streaming spend, indirectly supporting Roku’s platform revenue.

Nonetheless, macro remains a two‑sided risk: a weaker economy could pressure ad spending and subscription churn, while a hotter‑than‑expected economy could delay rate cuts and weigh on growth multiples.

Key risks to the Roku bull case

Despite the upbeat tone of today’s coverage, analysts and investors continue to flag several material risks:

Competitive pressure in CTV platforms
Roku faces intense competition from Amazon Fire TV, Google TV/Android TV, Samsung’s Tizen, LG’s webOS and various regional OS platforms. Even with current OS share leadership in North America, sustained competition could pressure margins, revenue‑share terms and ad take‑rates.
Cyclical advertising exposure
Although Roku is diversifying its revenue mix, platform revenue is still heavily tied to advertising, including scatter markets and performance marketers. Any downturn in ad demand—or a shift of budgets to rival platforms—could weigh on growth. ^[60]
Hardware economics and content spend
The devices segment intentionally runs at negative gross margin to support platform growth, while content and product investments (including AI‑driven ad tools and services like the Howdy app) require ongoing spend. ^[61]
Execution on new ad‑tech initiatives
Partnerships with Amazon, FreeWheel and others, plus the new self‑serve API suite, need to translate into sustained, high‑margin revenue. If adoption is slower than expected, the optimistic 2026 growth assumptions may need to be revised. ^[62]
Valuation risk
With revenue still in the mid‑teens growth band and earnings just turning positive, Roku’s valuation leaves little room for major missteps. Multiple compression alone—without a change in fundamentals—could have a significant impact on the stock.

Bottom line on Roku stock as of December 4, 2025

On December 4, 2025, the headline story for Roku stock is straightforward:

The business is growing double‑digits, has returned to operating profitability, and generates meaningful free cash flow. ^[63]
Roku is steadily turning its large TV OS footprint and streaming hours into a richer, more automated ad platform, underpinned by partnerships with Amazon Ads, FreeWheel and a growing DSP ecosystem. ^[64]
Wall Street’s consensus rating is “Buy,” with average 12‑month price targets clustered in the low‑to‑mid $110s, implying low‑20% upside from current levels. ^[65]

At the same time, the stock trades on rich forward multiples that require continued execution on ad monetization, international OS growth and cost discipline. Insider selling has picked up after the rally, while institutional investors remain active on both the buy and sell sides. ^[66]

For investors following Roku through Google News and Discover, the current setup is that of a high‑beta, execution‑sensitive growth story:

If management delivers on Street expectations for revenue growth, margin expansion and CTV ad share gains into 2026, today’s price could look reasonable relative to targets in the $110–145 range. ^[67]
If ad budgets wobble, competition intensifies or new initiatives fail to scale, the stock’s volatility and elevated valuation leave it vulnerable to sharp corrections.