Stockholm, February 5, 2026, 11:22 CET — Regular session
- Saab shares fell roughly 3% despite the company raising its sales growth forecast for 2023–27 and releasing Q4 results
- Q4 order bookings climbed to roughly SEK 100.1 billion; operating profit surged; the board suggested a bigger dividend
- Attention turns to execution: scaling capacity, improving cash conversion, and whether management delivers clearer 2026 guidance
Shares of Saab AB (publ) dropped Thursday following the Swedish defence firm’s boost to its medium-term sales growth forecast and a record-breaking fourth-quarter in order bookings. The stock was last down 3.1% at 629.5 crowns, having swung widely after the open, ranging from 621.5 to 681.2 crowns.
The report arrives with Saab’s stock already reflecting a lengthy boost in defence budgets: shares have more than tripled over the past year. The company is raising its growth targets just as European nations debate restocking their arsenals and ramping up production. Saab reported its order backlog at 275 billion crowns, buoyed by a recent 3.1 billion euro contract with Colombia for 17 Gripen fighters.
Saab reported fourth-quarter order bookings surged to SEK 100,111 million, with sales climbing to SEK 27,697 million. Operating profit (EBIT) jumped 67% to SEK 3,261 million. The board recommended a dividend of SEK 2.40 per share, up from SEK 2.00 last year. Saab also boosted its 2023–2027 organic sales growth target—excluding acquisitions and currency effects—to about 22% annually, up from 18%.
But the company cautioned that fast growth brings challenges. Saab noted that cash flow can fluctuate sharply between quarters because big projects hinge on delivery timelines and customer milestone payments. It also highlighted risks around supply chains and raw materials like rare earth elements. On top of that, defence orders could be delayed due to financing issues or political decisions. Saab added that its U.S. unit is cooperating with a Justice Department inquiry related to Brazil’s 2014 Gripen fighter deal.
Some investors zeroed in on what Saab left out: a clear, detailed 2026 outlook beyond the revised medium-term targets. Morgan Stanley stuck with an underweight rating, pointing out the updated targets offer limited upside versus consensus. UBS noted that Saab’s new targets suggest about 20% organic growth in 2026 and 2027.
On Thursday, Saab held an investor webcast and conference call featuring CEO Micael Johansson and CFO Anna Wijkander. Investors are eager for updates on production ramp-ups, delivery schedules, and strategies to maintain cash conversion above the medium-term target.
The broader environment remains favorable for European defence suppliers. Germany is considering a significant investment in military space capabilities, with a proposal that might reach 35 billion euros and feature an encrypted satellite network, Reuters reported earlier this week — a sector where defence electronics and sensor manufacturers are competing for contracts.
Saab’s annual general meeting is set for April 1 in Linköping, followed by Q1 results on April 23. Investors will be keen to see if the upgraded targets evolve into clearer guidance for the year ahead, and whether the record order book can deliver more consistent margins and cash flow.
