Salesforce (CRM) hits snag on Wall Street over AI bet

SAN FRANCISCO, July 9, 2026, 06:03 (PDT)

• KeyBanc lowered Salesforce to “sector weight” from “overweight.” The firm said signs of faster Agentforce growth aren’t as strong as it thought.
• Salesforce dropped around 3.8% in premarket trading after the downgrade. U.S. cash markets to open as normal Thursday.
• The call comes as 2026 shares have sold off hard, with Salesforce making new pushes to show its AI won’t cut into its main business.

Salesforce stock dropped in premarket trading Thursday after KeyBanc Capital Markets cut its rating on the business software name. The broker said Salesforce’s main AI product still isn’t getting enough customer buy-in to support a positive stance.

The downgrade is a big deal for Salesforce, which is now a stand-in for the software sector’s AI problem. Investors are looking at “agentic AI”—software that can handle jobs with little human input—and weighing if it will boost Salesforce’s worth or just make some of its older subscription business easier to swap out.

KeyBanc’s Jackson Ader downgraded Salesforce to sector weight, down from overweight, and dropped his price target entirely. He cited two persistent issues picked up in customer calls: companies don’t have their data ready for serious AI, and “Agentforce, as a product, just isn’t there,” Ader said. StreetInsider.com

Ader also dismissed the idea that Salesforce shares are cheap. According to MarketWatch, Ader said the stock may seem cheap compared to where it’s traded before, but there’s “little to no evidence” outside of valuation for a bull call. MarketWatch

The bearish call does come with some timing risk. Guggenheim’s John DiFucci just upgraded Salesforce and ServiceNow, saying he sees AI as a “major threat” to software firms but not a “death knell.” He argued the selloff got overdone. MarketWatch

Salesforce is steering investors toward its operating numbers. In May, it logged $11.1 billion in fiscal Q1 revenue, up 13%. Management also said Agentforce ARR hit $1.2 billion, with total AI and data ARR coming in just shy of $3.4 billion.

Chief Executive Marc Benioff said agentic AI is Salesforce’s “biggest growth opportunity.” CFO Robin Washington kept guidance for organic revenue to speed up in the second half of fiscal 2027. Salesforce Investor Relations

Salesforce picked up a boost from new contract news. On Wednesday, the company said the U.S. Air Force’s 441st Vehicle Support Chain Operations Squadron had tapped Missionforce National Security to oversee a fleet worth $13.5 billion — that’s over 84,000 vehicles at close to 389 sites. Kendall Collins, CEO of Missionforce and Government Cloud at Salesforce, said the program is giving “improved visibility for commanders.” Salesforce Investor Relations

Salesforce is moving further into the sector with another deal. The company said in June it will buy Fin, which used to be called Intercom, for roughly $3.6 billion. The purchase brings in an AI customer service agent operation that will support Agentforce.

The competitive signal also hit more than just Salesforce. Investor’s Business Daily said the downgrade put pressure on other enterprise software stocks, like ServiceNow and Workday. These are the same names some on the Street have flagged over the risk that AI agents could cut into demand for regular software seats.

Conversion is the next thing in focus. KeyBanc said partners have started shifting Agentforce proof-of-concept work into deal pipelines, but the pace isn’t strong enough to prove any lasting pickup yet. For Salesforce, investors want to see revenue over demos.

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