Dec. 15, 2025 — Investors tracking “data economy” winners are watching two very different playbooks this week: Samsara (NYSE: IOT), which sells connected-operations software to fleets and physical enterprises, and Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), an analytics software company whose balance sheet has become one of the market’s biggest corporate bets on Bitcoin.
On Monday, the broader market is also trying to stabilize after a bruising stretch for parts of the AI trade, with attention turning to key economic data and year-end positioning—an environment where “quality growth” narratives and balance-sheet-driven trades can both move quickly. [1]
Below is a roundup of the most relevant developments in circulation on 15/12/2025, plus the key context from the latest earnings coverage and analyst Q&A driving discussion around both names.
Strategy (MSTR) discloses a fresh 10,645-bitcoin purchase funded by new share issuance
The most time-sensitive headline on Dec. 15 centers on Strategy’s ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin.
In a report tied to a regulatory filing covering Dec. 8–14, 2025, Strategy disclosed that it acquired 10,645 bitcoin for an aggregate $980.3 million, paying an average price of $92,098 per bitcoin. [2]
The same disclosure outlined how the company funded that purchase through capital markets activity—an approach that has become core to Strategy’s identity in recent years. Among the reported transactions for the week:
- Strategy sold 4,789,664 shares of MSTR for $888.2 million in net proceeds.
- It also reported sales in several of its other securities (including preferred/share classes referenced in the filing summary), bringing total net proceeds to $989.0 million for the period. [3]
As of Dec. 14, 2025, the company said it held 671,268 bitcoin with an aggregate purchase price of $50.33 billion and an average purchase price of $74,972 per bitcoin. [4]
For investors, the mechanics matter as much as the headline: Strategy’s Bitcoin exposure is increasingly tied not only to crypto price action, but also to the firm’s ability to keep accessing funding efficiently—especially during periods of volatility.
Nasdaq 100 spotlight: Strategy stays in, but questions about classification persist
Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy model has also attracted attention from index watchers.
Reuters reporting around the Nasdaq 100 reshuffle said Strategy retained its place in the index following the annual review, even as some market participants argue the company’s buy-and-hold Bitcoin strategy resembles an investment fund more than a traditional operating tech business. [5]
That debate is not purely academic. Reuters also noted that MSCI is reviewing the eligibility of digital-asset-holding firms for its benchmarks, with a decision expected in January. [6]
In separate Reuters coverage leading into the reshuffle, analysts flagged the potential for passive-fund flow impacts if Strategy were excluded, underscoring why index decisions can become short-term catalysts even when the underlying business hasn’t changed. [7]
Why it matters now: on days when Bitcoin-related headlines drive attention, index membership can amplify the spotlight—bringing more systematic flows and more scrutiny at the same time.
Samsara (IOT): the “sticky growth + leverage” case is being reinforced by Q3 results
While Strategy’s news cycle is being driven by Bitcoin purchases and index debates, Samsara’s story is currently being shaped by earnings execution and the durability of its recurring-revenue model—exactly the themes highlighted in recent bullish commentary around the stock.
In its Q3 fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 1, 2025), Samsara reported:
- Revenue of $416.0 million, up 29% year over year (also 29% in constant currency)
- Ending ARR of $1.745 billion, up 29% year over year (also 29% in constant currency)
- 2,990 customers with ARR over $100,000, adding 219 in Q3 (a quarterly record)
- 164 customers with ARR over $1,000,000, adding 17 in Q3 (tying a quarterly record)
- A milestone: its first quarter of GAAP profitability [8]
Those figures help explain why investors keep using the word “stickiness” around Samsara: scaling ARR, expanding large-customer counts, and improving profitability all reinforce the idea that the platform is embedding deeper into customers’ workflows.
Guidance check: growth remains strong, while margins and profitability stay in focus
Samsara’s outlook also offered a roadmap for what matters next:
- Q4 FY2026 revenue guidance:$421–$423 million
- FY2026 revenue guidance:$1.595–$1.597 billion
- FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin guidance:16%
- FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance:$0.50–$0.51 [9]
Put simply: the company is trying to prove it can remain a high-growth software name while also building meaningful operating leverage—one of the hardest combinations to sustain over multiple years.
The top analyst questions from Samsara’s earnings call reveal what Wall Street is really testing
Beyond the headline numbers, the questions analysts ask on earnings calls often signal where skepticism (or curiosity) is concentrated. Recent coverage of Samsara’s Q3 call highlighted five themes that investors are likely to keep returning to through early 2026:
1) What’s driving large-customer momentum?
One key question focused on what’s powering Samsara’s traction with larger organizations. Management pointed to product scalability investments and a more customized go-to-market approach for complex enterprises, emphasizing data management and tailored deployments. [10]
2) Is new product adoption broad—or a one-product spike?
Another analyst pushed on the surge in new product adoption. Management described adoption as balanced across products, with comments that phased rollouts and multiproduct deal structures have supported the trend. [11]
3) How big is the expansion opportunity inside existing accounts?
Analysts also probed how much additional value Samsara can capture after landing a customer. The discussion emphasized that expansions and multiproduct adoption are major drivers of net new value, but management avoided simplifying the expansion potential into a single “rule of thumb.” [12]
4) How fast do mega-deals roll out?
For very large contracts, deployment timing affects near-term growth optics. Management noted that implementations often occur in phases over several quarters, influenced by customer readiness and operational complexity. [13]
5) Are tariffs changing customer behavior?
Tariffs were another key topic. Management suggested tariffs were not materially changing demand patterns, but did highlight customer interest in extending asset lifespans through better maintenance, connecting that to Samsara’s maintenance-related offerings. [14]
The takeaway: the Street is testing whether Samsara’s growth is (a) increasingly enterprise-driven, (b) supported by real platform breadth, and (c) resilient to macro and policy-driven friction. The answers will shape whether “growth + stickiness + operating leverage” remains credible—or starts to look like a peak-cycle narrative.
Data analytics earnings recap: strong Q3 results, softer stock performance
The other thread connecting these discussions is sector-wide: investors are trying to separate fundamental earnings strength from market performance, especially in data/analytics-adjacent software.
A Q3 earnings recap of the data analytics peer set described a quarter where the group’s revenues beat consensus by 4.3%, while next-quarter revenue guidance was roughly in line. However, it also noted that share prices across the group were down an average of 7.9% since the latest earnings releases. [15]
In that recap, Strategy was highlighted as the best Q3 performer in the tracked set, with reported revenue of $128.7 million, up 10.9% year over year, beating expectations by 9.1%. [16]
Those numbers align with Strategy’s own Q3 financial release, which emphasized:
- Operating income of $3.9 billion
- Net income of $2.8 billion
- Diluted EPS of $8.42
- And software revenue details alongside its Bitcoin disclosures [17]
Important nuance: Strategy’s earnings profile is heavily influenced by how Bitcoin is accounted for and valued, meaning “earnings strength” can look very different than it would for a more conventional SaaS or analytics vendor. [18]
What investors may watch next
As of Dec. 15, 2025, the key near-term watch items differ sharply between the two companies:
For Samsara (IOT)
- Sustained ARR growth while maintaining improving profitability (the market will watch whether the first quarter of GAAP profitability becomes a trend). [19]
- Multiproduct adoption and the pace of expansion within large customers—especially as deployments roll out in phases over multiple quarters. [20]
- Macro sensitivity among physical-operations customers (fleet operators, logistics, construction, public sector), particularly if economic data changes sentiment into 2026. [21]
For Strategy (MSTR)
- Bitcoin volatility and funding cadence: the company is continuing to use equity and other securities programs to finance additional buys, and investors will track how that impacts dilution, leverage, and stock behavior. [22]
- Index and classification scrutiny: Nasdaq 100 status and broader index-provider reviews can be catalysts—positive or negative—depending on outcomes and flow implications. [23]
Bottom line
The December narrative around these two names highlights a split inside “tech” investing:
- Samsara represents the classic software bull case: recurring revenue, growing enterprise penetration, and a push toward operating leverage—now reinforced by Q3 numbers and an improving profitability profile. [24]
- Strategy represents a more unconventional hybrid: an analytics software business paired with an aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy—now back in the headlines on Dec. 15 after another near-$1 billion BTC purchase disclosure and ongoing index scrutiny. [25]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. finviz.com, 11. finviz.com, 12. finviz.com, 13. finviz.com, 14. finviz.com, 15. stockstory.org, 16. stockstory.org, 17. www.strategy.com, 18. www.strategy.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. finviz.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.businesswire.com, 25. www.investing.com
