Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is starting the week in the spotlight for three reasons that matter to stock investors: it officially joined the Nasdaq-100 index today, it has a fresh quarterly dividend with an imminent ex-dividend date, and Wall Street is building expectations for the company’s next earnings update as the AI-driven data-storage cycle keeps reshaping demand.
Despite the headline boost of index inclusion, STX shares are lower in Monday trading. As of the latest trade on December 22, 2025, Seagate stock is around $283.17, down about 4.45% on the day, after trading between $279.50 and $302.40.
Below is a full roundup of what’s driving Seagate stock today—plus the latest forecasts, analyst targets, and key risks investors are weighing right now.
STX stock price today: why Seagate shares are moving on Dec. 22, 2025
Today’s tape is a classic reminder that “good news” headlines don’t guarantee a green day.
Seagate is down roughly mid-single digits even as it joins a major benchmark. The stock opened around $300.96 and slid to the high-$270s before rebounding modestly.
That move fits a pattern that shows up around big index events: traders often buy the rumor (or front-run expected index flows) and then sell into the actual rebalance—especially in a holiday-shortened week when liquidity can be thinner and price swings can look exaggerated.
Seagate joins the Nasdaq-100: what the inclusion means for STX stock
Seagate’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 became effective prior to market open today (Monday, Dec. 22, 2025) as part of Nasdaq’s annual reconstitution. [1]
That matters because the Nasdaq-100 is not just a prestige list—it’s a capital magnet:
- Nasdaq says the Nasdaq-100 underpins 200+ tracking products with over $600 billion in assets under management globally (including the Invesco QQQ Trust). [2]
- When Seagate enters the index, funds that track it may need to buy STX (and funds that previously held it outside the index may adjust positions as well). [3]
So why isn’t the stock rising today?
Because index inclusion often creates a two-phase effect:
- Pre-positioning: investors buy ahead of the rebalance.
- Rebalance day volatility: mechanical flows hit the market, and short-term traders may take profits.
In other words: index inclusion can improve liquidity and broaden ownership over time, but the first trading session can be messy.
Dividend news: Seagate’s next payout, key dates, and what changed
Dividend-focused investors have another near-term catalyst to watch: Seagate’s next quarterly dividend.
Seagate’s board declared a $0.74 per share quarterly cash dividend, payable January 9, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 24, 2025. [4]
The company also noted the dividend was increased by approximately 3% to $0.74 per share. [5]
Market coverage published today highlights the same schedule, noting that STX is set to trade ex-dividend on December 24, 2025 (meaning buyers on/after that date won’t receive the upcoming payment). [6]
Why it matters for the stock:
Dividend timing can influence short-term trading flows—especially among income strategies that rebalance around ex-dividend dates. The bigger picture, though, is whether Seagate can keep funding dividends while investing heavily in next-gen hard drive technology and expanding capacity for hyperscalers.
Earnings outlook: what analysts expect next—and what Seagate has guided
The most recent quarter: record margins and AI-linked demand commentary
Seagate’s latest reported results (fiscal Q1 2026, quarter ended October 3, 2025) showed:
- Revenue: $2.63 billion
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS: $2.61
- GAAP gross margin: 39.4% and non-GAAP gross margin: 40.1% (record levels)
- Operating cash flow: $532 million; free cash flow: $427 million [7]
Management explicitly tied demand momentum to high-capacity storage needs and highlighted traction for its Mozaic HAMR (heat-assisted magnetic recording) products, stating they are qualified with five of the world’s largest cloud customers. [8]
Seagate’s guidance: fiscal Q2 2026
For fiscal Q2 2026, Seagate guided to:
- Revenue: $2.70 billion ± $100 million
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS: $2.75 ± $0.20 [9]
Reuters previously reported Seagate’s Q2 outlook as above analysts’ estimates, linking the strength to cloud providers expanding hardware investment for generative AI workloads. [10]
What Wall Street expects
A widely circulated earnings preview today points to these consensus expectations:
- Q2 EPS estimate: about $2.55
- FY2026 EPS estimate: about $10.40
- FY2027 EPS estimate: about $14.37 [11]
Put together, the story Wall Street is telling is simple: earnings power is rising quickly, and the market is now trying to decide how durable the cycle is—and how much of it is already priced into STX after a huge run.
Analyst ratings and price targets for Seagate (STX): where forecasts stand now
Across major tracking services, Seagate is still wearing a broadly bullish analyst label—but targets vary depending on the source and the freshness of updates.
Consensus targets cluster in the high-$200s
- One earnings preview published today cites an average price target around $297 with a “Strong Buy”-leaning analyst distribution. [12]
- Market pricing pages also show a 1-year target estimate near $297.09. [13]
Recent notable target changes in December 2025
- Benchmark raised its price target to $325 (from $255), citing strong HDD demand and references to Seagate management expecting gross margins exceeding 50% over the next 12 months in HDD sales. [14]
- Morgan Stanley raised its target to $337 (from $270) and maintained an Overweight rating, in a broader IT hardware positioning note. [15]
- Citi reiterated Buy ratings on Seagate and raised its price target to $320 in a research discussion that framed hard-drive makers as key AI beneficiaries. [16]
What investors should take from this: analysts are not just inching targets up—they’re underwriting a scenario where Seagate sustains pricing power and margin expansion as hyperscale and AI storage demand stays strong.
The bull case for Seagate stock: AI storage demand + HAMR product cycle
If you want the optimistic thesis in one sentence: AI is generating and retaining absurd amounts of data, and Seagate sells one of the cheapest ways to store it at scale.
A few building blocks supporting that narrative right now:
- Seagate says it has “clear visibility into sustained demand strength” and is ramping shipments of its areal density-leading Mozaic HAMR drives, now qualified with five of the largest cloud customers. [17]
- The company’s own Q2 guidance implies continued momentum, even after a strong Q1. [18]
- The broader tech roadmap is pushing density higher: Seagate has reported laboratory progress toward extremely high-capacity platters, which—while not immediately commercial—supports the long-term narrative that HDDs are not “dead tech,” just “quiet tech.” [19]
In a market where AI spending often gets reduced to “GPU demand,” Seagate is effectively a pick-and-shovel provider to the other half of the AI equation: storage.
The bear case and key risks: cycle reversals, competition, and valuation gravity
Seagate is riding a powerful wave—but waves do eventually change shape.
Key risk buckets investors are watching:
- Cycle risk / customer digestion
Even strong cloud capex cycles can pause. Storage demand can be lumpy if customers over-order and then digest inventory. - Competition and mix shifts
Seagate’s main HDD competitor dynamics (including Western Digital) matter, and storage architectures continue evolving as SSDs and alternative storage layers gain share in some workloads. - Financial and policy variables that can surprise
Seagate’s guidance references items like global minimum tax framework impacts and the dilutive effects of exchangeable notes (even if partially offset), plus a “minimal expected impact” from tariff policies announced as of the guidance date—language that signals these are live variables, not dead footnotes. [20] - Valuation after a huge run
Seagate has dramatically outperformed over the last year, which raises the bar for future execution. One earnings preview cites STX up well over 200% over the past 52 weeks—an extraordinary move that can amplify sensitivity to any hint of slowing. [21]
What to watch next for STX stock this week
With so many catalysts stacked back-to-back, Seagate’s near-term narrative is unusually event-driven. Here are the big “watch items” for the rest of this week:
- Nasdaq-100 flow-through: does the stock stabilize after rebalance day volatility? [22]
- Ex-dividend timing: STX is approaching its Dec. 24 ex-dividend date for the $0.74 payout. [23]
- Earnings runway: investors will keep triangulating between Seagate’s Q2 guide and consensus expectations heading into the next report. [24]
- Margin narrative: analysts are increasingly focused on whether Seagate can sustain the margin profile implied by recent commentary and demand tightness. [25]
Bottom line: Seagate (STX) is now an index heavyweight—but still a stock with a story to prove
On December 22, 2025, Seagate stock is giving investors a very Seagate-style paradox: the company just earned a major index promotion, yet the shares are down sharply intraday. [26]
Longer term, the investment debate is less about the Nasdaq-100 logo and more about whether Seagate can keep converting the AI storage surge into durable margins, cash flow, and earnings power—while executing its HAMR roadmap at scale. [27]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. markets.financialcontent.com, 12. markets.financialcontent.com, 13. finance.yahoo.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.tomshardware.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. markets.financialcontent.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.sec.gov
