Sensex week ahead: AI fears, new GDP series and Holi break could swing Bombay Stock Exchange stocks
1 March 2026

Sensex week ahead: AI fears, new GDP series and Holi break could swing Bombay Stock Exchange stocks

Mumbai, March 1, 2026, 12:15 (IST) — The session wrapped up with the market closed.

  • Sensex slipped 1.17% Friday, with the Nifty 50 dropping 1.25% as markets looked to the March open
  • IT stocks just wrapped up their worst month since 2008, with investors anxious that AI could take a bigger bite out of earnings than expected.
  • Holi cuts the week short, leaving traders to keep an eye on GDP revisions, fresh auto sales figures, and global data releases.

Stocks in Mumbai started the week after a rough February, with the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 both losing ground. IT names suffered their steepest monthly drop since 2008 on worries that artificial intelligence might put a dent in earnings. By the close on Friday, the Sensex had shed 1.17% to finish at 81,287.19, while the Nifty slipped 1.25% to 25,178.65. For the month, the Sensex retreated 1.2% and the Nifty declined 0.6%. The Nifty IT index plunged 19.5%, even as public-sector lenders and consumer durables saw notable gains over the same period. “There is now a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the profitability and margin outlook for Indian IT companies because of AI,” Saurabh Jain, assistant vice president of retail equities at SMC Global, said. Reuters

The drop packs a punch—IT remains a dominant force in local benchmarks. Continued investor pullback in that sector threatens to overshadow gains from banks, consumer stocks, and the rest of the market.

This week, markets are open just four days—Tuesday is closed for Holi. That tightens the window for investors, who face a packed global data calendar and a new round of corporate updates to process.

The headline domestic data this day is India’s first GDP figure using the overhauled data series—with the base year now 2022–23 and tweaks to the calculation. Growth for the October-December period landed at 7.8%, down from 8.4% the prior quarter. The National Statistics Office revised its estimate for the year ending March 31 to 7.6%, a notch higher than the 7.4% under the old method. “Service sector performance signals a strong lift, besides double-digit growth in manufacturing,” said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank. Reuters

India faces a fresh inflation worry, with the weather office warning of hotter-than-usual temperatures and increased heatwave days from March to May. That spells trouble for winter crops—think wheat and oilseeds. “Above-normal heatwave days are expected over most parts of the country during March to May 2026,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. Reuters

Auto shares could take direction from fresh monthly dispatch data. Hyundai Motor India’s February sales climbed 12.6% on the year to 66,134 units, with exports jumping 24.8% to 13,727. “Momentum seen in January continues in February,” said managing director Tarun Garg. The Economic Times

Maruti Suzuki held steady in February, with domestic dispatches—including sales to other OEMs—coming in at 174,840 units, nearly flat versus the same month last year. The company’s total sales, however, climbed 7.31% to 213,995 units, powered by a 56.48% surge in exports to 39,155 vehicles, according to its latest monthly data.

Mahindra & Mahindra reported an 18% jump in total auto sales for February, reaching 97,177 vehicles, counting exports. Domestic SUV numbers landed at 60,018 units, up 19%. “February saw SUV sales of 60,018 units, a growth of 19% reflecting robust customer demand,” CEO Nalinikanth Gollagunta said.

Primary market activity won’t slow down despite the cash market holiday. Sedemac Mechatronics is rolling out its 10.87 billion rupee IPO from March 4 to March 6. Meanwhile, according to Economic Times, nine companies are on deck to list across mainboard and SME platforms.

Nifty closed out the week 1.54% lower, moving in a range from 25,771 down to 25,141. The India VIX, which tracks expected volatility, slipped 4.6% to 13.70, according to a technical note from Milan Vaishnav. He points to the 25,000–24,950 band as a crucial support area, with resistance likely coming in at 25,350–25,550. Vaishnav also highlighted that the Holi holiday on March 3 could amplify price swings.

The risks aren’t balanced. If IT takes a sharper dip, benchmarks could get dragged into a drawn-out consolidation. A warm March? That could stir up fresh food-price jitters—right when traders are circling back to interest-rate chatter.

Tuesday’s holiday leaves traders watching for signals abroad, with PMI readings and the U.S. payrolls release on Friday set to take center stage before anyone jumps back into Dalal Street. The February U.S. Employment Situation lands March 6.

Michał Rogucki

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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