ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW) heads into the week of December 22–26, 2025 with momentum in its product narrative—but also with headline risk that has recently dominated the stock. The company has closed its largest acquisition to date (Moveworks), announced a security-focused buyout of identity specialist Veza, and completed a 5-for-1 stock split—all while markets digest reports that ServiceNow is in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity firm Armis for up to $7 billion. [1]
With U.S. markets entering a holiday-shortened, potentially low-liquidity week—and with macro data still on the calendar—ServiceNow stock could be especially sensitive to incremental headlines, analyst notes, and any formal update around M&A. [2]
Where ServiceNow stock stands heading into Christmas week
As of the latest available quote heading into Sunday, December 21, 2025, ServiceNow shares were around $155 (split-adjusted), reflecting trading after the recent stock split and a volatile reaction to acquisition headlines.
Important context: ServiceNow’s 5-for-1 stock split became effective in mid-December, meaning historical prices and many older analyst targets may still appear in pre-split terms. The split did not change the company’s underlying value, but it did reset per-share figures (price, EPS, and many published price targets) to one-fifth of prior levels. [3]
The big driver right now: reported Armis acquisition talks (and why the market flinched)
The near-term story for NOW stock has been shaped less by quarterly fundamentals and more by M&A expectations.
Multiple reports (originating with Bloomberg and echoed by Reuters and market coverage) said ServiceNow is in advanced talks to acquire Armis for up to $7 billion, a move that would deepen ServiceNow’s push into cybersecurity—specifically around managing and securing connected devices and operational technology environments. ServiceNow and Armis have not publicly confirmed the deal, and coverage has noted the talks could still change. [4]
Why the stock sold off on the reports
ServiceNow shares dropped sharply on Monday, December 15, with several outlets citing a combination of:
- Sticker shock around a potential $7B price tag
- Concerns that a mega-deal could signal pressure to sustain growth organically
- Heightened sensitivity to “deal risk” after a year of large acquisitions
- A notable analyst downgrade that landed at the same time [5]
Investors also appeared to interpret a potential Armis deal as part of a broader “buy vs. build” debate: whether ServiceNow is accelerating into security because it sees a strategic opening—or because it believes it needs inorganic growth levers to protect longer-term growth targets. [6]
Wall Street’s split view: bullish on strategy, cautious on valuation and “SaaS + AI” disruption
ServiceNow’s analyst backdrop into the week ahead is best described as constructive—but polarized.
The bearish angle: “Death of SaaS” narrative risk
KeyBanc downgraded ServiceNow to Underweight, warning that rapid AI-driven change could pressure traditional SaaS narratives and that ServiceNow may be exposed to shifting IT employment and automation dynamics. Market coverage highlighted this “AI threatens SaaS” framing as a key reason the stock was hit so hard during the Armis headlines. [7]
Split-adjusted translation: KeyBanc’s cited $775 target (pre-split) equates to about $155 after the 5-for-1 split—roughly in line with where NOW has been trading post-split. [8]
The bullish angle: security + CMDB synergy and a bigger enterprise “control plane”
On the other side, analysts cited in coverage from Barron’s and others argued that Armis could fit strategically—particularly by strengthening ServiceNow’s asset visibility and feeding richer data into ServiceNow’s configuration and workflow engine. That could support broader products such as IT asset management, operational technology use cases, and AI-enabled automation. [9]
A notable rating change: Guggenheim steps back from “Sell”
Guggenheim upgraded ServiceNow from Sell to Neutral, describing a combination of M&A activity and AI-related narrative pressure as key factors weighing on the stock, while emphasizing the change was not a fresh “buy call.” [10]
Updated forecasts and price targets: what “the Street” implies after the split
Because the split is fresh, the cleanest way to read forecasts this week is through split-adjusted targets.
- Stifel lowered its price target to $230 from $1,150—explicitly describing it as a mathematical adjustment to reflect the new share count, while keeping a Buy rating. [11]
- Market-wide consensus forecasts compiled by major market-data aggregators generally cluster around the low-to-mid $220s on a 12‑month horizon (split-adjusted), implying sizable upside from the mid‑$150s. [12]
- Several pre-split targets cited in coverage (e.g., $1,100; $1,300) also translate into the same neighborhood after dividing by five—roughly $220 to $260 split-adjusted—underscoring that many firms have not materially changed their long-term thesis, even if the market has repriced the shares short-term. [13]
What this means for the week ahead: the market is currently trading NOW at levels where (a) bearish analysts see little margin for error, while (b) bulls view recent weakness as a valuation reset that creates an entry point—especially if M&A risk clarifies.
Fundamentals check: the core business is still posting strong growth (as of the last earnings update)
While headlines have dominated in December, ServiceNow’s last major financial update (Q3 2025) showed:
- Subscription revenue of $3.299B, up 21.5% year over year
- Total revenue of $3.407B, up 22% year over year
- A raise to full-year 2025 guidance on subscription revenue and profitability metrics [14]
This matters for the week ahead because it frames the real debate: the selloff is not (yet) about a collapse in demand; it’s about narrative risk (AI disruption), capital allocation (how big should acquisitions get), and whether ServiceNow can defend premium multiples while it expands into adjacent markets like security.
Three recent corporate moves investors are still digesting
1) Moveworks acquisition is officially closed
ServiceNow confirmed on December 15, 2025 that it completed its acquisition of Moveworks, positioning it as a major step in building an “AI-native front door” for employee engagement—pairing ServiceNow workflows with Moveworks’ AI assistant and enterprise search. [15]
Week-ahead implication: markets will look for early signs of integration traction—customer messaging, cross-sell angles, and whether ServiceNow can translate “agentic AI” positioning into measurable ROI outcomes.
2) Veza deal expands identity security footprint
On December 2, 2025, ServiceNow announced its intent to acquire Veza, positioning the deal as a push deeper into identity security and governance—particularly relevant as enterprises roll out more automation and AI agents that require controlled access to systems and data. [16]
Week-ahead implication: if Armis talks progress, investors may view it as a second major step in building an end-to-end security layer around ServiceNow’s workflow platform (identity + device/asset exposure).
3) 5-for-1 stock split is done—now the “retail effect” gets tested
ServiceNow’s shareholders approved a 5-for-1 split, with trading expected to begin on a split-adjusted basis from December 18, 2025. [17]
Splits often increase psychological affordability and sometimes trading activity, but they don’t change fundamentals. The real question is whether the split helps stabilize sentiment after December’s volatility—or whether M&A headlines overpower any “split halo.”
The coming week’s trading setup: holiday schedule + macro catalysts
This is not a normal week for price discovery.
Market hours
U.S. equity markets are expected to:
- Close early on Wednesday, December 24, 2025 (Christmas Eve)
- Be closed Thursday, December 25, 2025 (Christmas Day) [18]
Lower liquidity can amplify moves in high-profile stocks—especially those with active news flow.
Macro data still matters for high-multiple software
Investors will also be watching economic data releases that can move interest-rate expectations and “duration” stocks like enterprise software. A week-ahead preview highlighted releases including U.S. GDP (delayed reporting), consumer confidence, and jobless claims, even with the holiday schedule. [19]
What to watch for NOW stock this week: a practical checklist
Here are the catalysts most likely to move ServiceNow shares in the week ahead:
1) Any confirmation, denial, or leak progression on Armis
Because the Armis story has been driven by reports rather than company confirmation, any incremental update—timing, price, financing structure, or even a “talks ended” headline—could swing sentiment. [20]
2) Analyst note flow after the split (and after the selloff)
Targets are being reset post-split, and firms are re-underwriting the name around the “security expansion” thesis. The market is currently very sensitive to rating language (Buy vs Neutral vs Underweight) because it influences positioning into year-end. [21]
3) “Integration narrative” from the Moveworks close
Now that the Moveworks acquisition is formally closed, investors will watch for concrete messaging: customer wins, bundled offerings, roadmap milestones, or early synergy indicators. [22]
4) Rates and risk appetite (especially in a no-Santa-rally tape)
Market commentary has noted uncertainty around the usual late-year “Santa rally,” with AI-related capex concerns and volatility influencing sentiment. That backdrop matters because ServiceNow trades as a premium, growth-anchored enterprise platform name. [23]
Scenarios for the week ahead: how the stock could trade
Because the week is short and news-driven, it helps to think in scenarios:
Scenario A: Armis talks are confirmed (or look increasingly likely)
Potential initial market reaction could be mixed:
- Strategic upside: stronger security position, deeper enterprise control plane
- Near-term worry: deal size, integration load after Moveworks and Veza, and potential margin/FCF pressure [24]
Scenario B: Armis is delayed, denied, or repriced
A clear “no deal” signal could remove an overhang and refocus attention on:
- Moveworks integration
- Veza’s identity-security angle
- ServiceNow’s underlying subscription growth and margins [25]
Scenario C: No new company-specific news (quiet tape)
In that case, trading could be dominated by:
- holiday liquidity effects
- macro prints (growth and labor data)
- year-end positioning flows [26]
Bottom line: the week ahead is about headlines and positioning—not earnings
ServiceNow stock enters the coming week with strong underlying fundamentals (based on the last reported quarter) and a long-term market narrative anchored in AI-enabled workflow automation. [27]
But in the near term, the stock’s direction is likely to be dictated by:
- whether the market gets clarity on Armis
- how investors handicap a rapidly evolving “AI + SaaS” landscape
- and whether ServiceNow’s acquisition cadence is seen as strategic discipline or narrative risk [28]
References
1. newsroom.servicenow.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. newsroom.servicenow.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.servicenow.com, 15. newsroom.servicenow.com, 16. newsroom.servicenow.com, 17. newsroom.servicenow.com, 18. www.nyse.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. newsroom.servicenow.com, 23. www.ft.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. newsroom.servicenow.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.servicenow.com, 28. www.reuters.com
