Shares of Waste Management (NYSE:WM) drop as company reduces revenue outlook, challenging its margin-focused plan
29 July 2026
2 mins read

Shares of Waste Management (NYSE:WM) drop as company reduces revenue outlook, challenging its margin-focused plan

NEW YORK, July 28, 2026, 17:59 EDT

  • Shares declined 2.9% in after-hours trading to $232.50. During the regular session, the stock finished up 0.6% at $239.41.
  • WM reduced its 2026 revenue midpoint by $150 million, while maintaining its profit and free-cash-flow guidance.
  • Adjusted earnings per share surpassed FactSet’s forecast, but revenue for the quarter came in just below expectations.

Shares of Waste Management, Inc. fell in after-hours trading on Tuesday, as the waste hauling company reduced its full-year revenue forecast due to soft collection volumes.

WM maintained its profit and cash guidance, while raising its margin outlook. The after-hours reaction indicates investors centered on the reduced sales target.

Stock chart for NYSE:WM

Revenue at the guidance midpoints drops by $150 million compared to the January plan. Non-GAAP adjusted operating EBITDA holds steady at $8.20 billion. The resulting margin increases to about 31.1%, up from 30.9%.

The comparison of guidance outlines WM’s approach to safeguarding its earnings:

2026 guidanceJuly updateJanuary outlookMidpoint change
Revenue$26.275B-$26.475B$26.425B-$26.625B-$150M
Adjusted operating EBITDA$8.15B-$8.25B$8.15B-$8.25BUnchanged
Free cash flow$3.75B-$3.85B$3.75B-$3.85BUnchanged
Adjusted EBITDA margin31.0%-31.2%30.8%-31.0%+20 basis points

The updated midpoint for revenue is $175 million below FactSet’s estimate prior to the release. This maintains the earnings outlook, but a shortfall remains on overall revenue.

Revenue for the second quarter increased 4.0% to $6.684 billion, coming in around $26 million below FactSet’s forecast. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.02, which surpassed the estimate by four cents.

Pricing was a key driver for the quarter. Core price rose by 5.7%, with collection-and-disposal yield up 3.6%. Business volume declined 1.8%.

Residential volume declined by 2.9% while yield rose 6.1%. WM reported ongoing reductions in lower-margin residential contracts. The decrease in volume showed a 210 basis-point improvement compared to the first quarter.

The headline drop was also skewed by wildfire comparisons. Without the impact of cleanup activity from last year, collection-and-disposal volume slipped 0.4%. Landfill volume increased 1.7% on the same comparison.

Weaker mix was offset by costs. Adjusted operating EBITDA margin increased by 40 basis points to reach 30.9%. Adjusted selling and administrative costs saw a 60 basis point improvement.

Chief Executive Jim Fish said, “Second quarter earnings growth, margin expansion, and cash flow generation reflect the strength of our business model.” Business Wire

Adjusted EBITDA from recycling and renewable energy rose by $40 million, a gain of 32.5%. Healthcare Solutions contributed an additional $11 million, helped by synergies from integration and reduced overhead costs.

Free cash flow rose by 34.5% to reach $1.10 billion. WM distributed $1.04 billion via dividends and share buybacks. This cash performance underpins the maintained full-year goal.

The valuation allows less flexibility for volume shortfalls. WM ended Tuesday’s regular session trading at 34.6 times its trailing earnings. Shares of Republic Services, Inc. were at 31.1 times, meaning WM trades at an 11% premium.

WM rose 1.3% over the last five sessions. Company management is set to address its updated assumptions at 10:00 EDT on Wednesday. Investors are monitoring whether the deceleration in residential losses persists.

There are still risks tied to collection volumes, fuel expenses and the integration of Healthcare Solutions. Lower pricing or slower-than-expected cost reductions could rapidly shrink the margin buffer.

C

What caused WM shares to decline after hours even though the company surpassed EPS expectations?

WM finished regular trading on July 28 at $239.41, up roughly 0.70%. After hours, shares declined 2.05% to $234.50 by 5:52 p.m. ET. The move was likely prompted by a reduction in 2026 revenue guidance and a slight revenue shortfall. Adjusted earnings topped forecasts, indicating the after-hours response was not solely due to company performance. After-hours prices can move further before the market opens on Wednesday. MarketScreener

Did the second quarter results come in above or below expectations?

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.02, topping the FactSet consensus expectation of $1.98 by four cents. Revenue totaled $6.684 billion, an increase of 4.0% compared to the same period last year. That figure was around $26 million short of analysts’ forecast of $6.71 billion. Reported net income rose to $785 million from $726 million a year earlier. The combination led to a mixed reaction from the market at the open. MarketScreener

How significant is the reduction in 2026 revenue guidance?

WM now forecasts 2026 revenue in the range of $26.275 billion to $26.475 billion, around 0.6% lower than its previous guidance. The company attributed the reduction to weaker volume projections, with some offset from increased energy surcharges. Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains unchanged at $8.15 billion to $8.25 billion, as does the free cash flow forecast of $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion. While the revision is slight, it highlights ongoing softness in volumes. Business Wire

Is it possible for pricing to continue to balance out declining waste volumes?

Core price rose by 5.7%, as Collection and Disposal yield climbed 3.6% year on year. Collection and Disposal volume was down 1.8% compared to the same quarter last year. When prior-year wildfire work is excluded, the volume drop was just 0.4%. Landfill volume increased 1.7% on this adjusted basis. Residential losses narrowed by 210 basis points sequentially over the quarter. For now, price increases are offsetting volume declines at the profit level. Business Wire

Have margins continued to widen even as demand cools?

Adjusted operating EBITDA climbed 5.5% from a year earlier to $2.067 billion. The adjusted margin widened by 40 basis points to 30.9% in the quarter. Discounting the previous year’s wildfire cleanup benefit, underlying EBITDA growth stood at 9.1%. Adjusted SG&A fell to 9.9% of revenue from 10.5%. WM increased its full-year adjusted margin forecast to 31.0%–31.2%, a rise of 20 basis points. That performance underpins the reiterated profit forecast. Business Wire

Has the Stericycle integration achieved sufficient progress?

Healthcare Solutions revenue reached $638 million, compared with $646 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $121 million from $110 million. The segment’s adjusted margin widened by two percentage points to 19.0%. WM attributed the improvement to stronger SG&A controls and ongoing integration with collection activities. Revenue remains weak, although profitability is improving. Investors await more precise details on Stericycle synergy timing. Business Wire

Are recycling and renewable energy projects starting to deliver substantial profits?

Adjusted EBITDA from recycling and renewable energy rose by $40 million, marking a 32.5% increase. Recycling revenue climbed to $403 million, up from $381 million. Renewable Energy revenue increased to $157 million, up from $115 million. Three newly added gas facilities are expected to produce 3.5 million MMBtu per year. The Denver recycling plant expanded capacity by about 60,000 tons annually. Commodity prices were mixed, with both recycled materials and natural gas prices falling. Business Wire

Is WM able to continue share repurchases and dividend payments even as debt levels stay elevated?

Operating cash flow for the second quarter was $1.726 billion, up almost 12% compared to the previous year. Free cash flow increased 34.5% to $1.104 billion in the period. WM distributed $1.04 billion to shareholders through share buybacks and cash dividends. As of June 30, gross debt stood at approximately $23.36 billion, with cash holdings at $557 million. The company’s full-year free cash flow outlook is unchanged at $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion. While cash generation remains robust, leverage continues to be a key focus. Business Wire

Is WM trading at a high price near $239 per share?

At the close on July 28, WM had a market capitalisation of around $96.1 billion. Shares closed at nearly 34.6 times trailing earnings. At $234.50 in after-hours trading, the earnings multiple was approximately 33.9 times. Based on the regular close, WM was valued at about 25 times its guided free cash flow. The company’s annual dividend of $3.78 gave a yield of roughly 1.58%. Republic Services traded at close to 31.1 times trailing earnings, leaving WM shares at a premium. MarketScreener

What are the key points for the July 29 conference call?

WM has set the call for 10 a.m. ET on July 29. The key topic is management’s lower volume forecast for the full year. Investors are seeking clarification about the 0.4% decline in collection volumes when adjusted for wildfires. Information on how quickly the company is shedding residential customers and when it might stabilize is also required. Healthcare revenue dropped by $8 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by $11 million. How management will justify leaving EBITDA and cash-flow guidance unchanged will be a main focus. Business Wire

Jerzy Lewandowski is a senior markets editor at TS2.tech covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global financial markets. He studied economics at the University of Warsaw and previously worked in investment analysis before moving into financial journalism. His daily coverage focuses on the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide. Follow Jerzy Lewandowski on Google News.

Google Preferred Source

Stock Market Today

MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) Shares Drop 3.3% with Bitcoin Slump Challenging AI-Linked Gains
Previous Story

MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) Shares Drop 3.3% with Bitcoin Slump Challenging AI-Linked Gains

Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) surges 14% with AI test demand outlook beating market expectations
Next Story

Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) surges 14% with AI test demand outlook beating market expectations