Shell Plc News and Forecasts Today: LLOG Deal, Rosneft JV Exit, SAF Push and 2026 Stock Outlook (Dec 10, 2025)

LONDON – December 10, 2025 — Shell plc (SHEL) is ending the year with a burst of deal-making, portfolio reshaping and aggressive shareholder payouts. From potential multi‑billion‑dollar M&A in the Gulf of Mexico to dissolving a sanctioned Russian joint venture, plus a major sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) deal in Egypt, the energy major is actively steering its future while investors debate how much upside is left in the stock.

Below is a structured look at today’s key Shell developments, the latest strategic moves, and what analysts now expect for SHEL into 2026.

Today’s Top Shell Headlines at a Glance

Share buybacks: Shell repurchased 1.51 million shares for cancellation on 10 December as part of a buyback programme running through 30 January 2026. ^[1]
Russia exit step: Shell is seeking to dissolve its Rosneft-Shell Caspian Ventures joint venture, through which it holds part of its stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), while keeping its overall CPC exposure unchanged. ^[2]
Deepwater M&A: The company is in advanced talks on a >US$3 billion acquisition of LLOG Exploration Offshore, a key private producer in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. ^[3]
Low‑carbon fuels: Shell has signed a long‑term offtake agreement to buy 100% of the output from Egypt’s first commercial‑scale SAF plant, developed by Green Sky Capital in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. ^[4]
Operational hiccup: Output at Shell’s Whale and Perdido offshore platforms in the U.S. Gulf was temporarily shut in after a pipeline outage, with production expected to resume quickly. ^[5]
Valuation debate: New analysis from Simply Wall St argues Shell shares remain undervalued despite a strong multi‑year run, while Wall Street price targets point to mid‑teens percentage upside over the next 12 months. ^[6]

1. LLOG Deal: Shell’s Next Big Bet in the Gulf of Mexico

Shell is reportedly closing in on a deal to acquire LLOG Exploration Offshore for more than US$3 billion, according to multiple reports citing sources familiar with the talks. ^[7]

LLOG is one of the largest privately owned operators in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, with production of around 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and expectations for that volume to rise significantly toward the end of the decade. ^[8]

If the transaction is completed:

Shell’s deepwater footprint would expand, adding LLOG’s portfolio of deepwater and ultra‑deepwater assets to Shell’s existing Gulf operations.
The company would double down on a region where it already boasts 20‑year production highs, as highlighted in its Q3 2025 results. ^[9]
The acquisition would be consistent with Shell’s broader strategy of focusing on high‑margin, cash‑generative upstream assets, particularly deepwater and LNG, while trimming lower‑return or higher‑risk positions elsewhere. ^[10]

The deal is not guaranteed — negotiations are said to be confidential and could still fall apart — but the direction of travel is clear: Shell wants more high‑quality deepwater barrels to underpin long‑term cash flows.

2. Exiting a Rosneft JV While Staying in the CPC

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which moves crude from Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea coast, remains strategically important for global supply. Shell holds roughly 7.4% of CPC via three entities, including the Rosneft‑Shell Caspian Ventures vehicle. ^[11]

Two developments matter this week:

New Russian decree: On 8 December, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing transactions involving the JV’s 7.5% CPC stake, opening the door to ownership changes despite Western sanctions on Rosneft and other Russian entities. ^[12]
Shell’s response: Shell now wants to dissolve the joint venture with Rosneft, according to Reuters, but aims to maintain its overall CPC stake — effectively phasing out its direct partnership with Rosneft while preserving pipeline exposure. ^[13]

Strategically, this move:

Reduces Shell’s legal and reputational exposure to sanctioned Russian counterparties.
Signals continued interest in Kazakh export routes, which are increasingly important to non‑Russian supply into global markets.
Could involve complex restructuring to ensure Shell’s economic interest in CPC (around 7.4%, including ~3.7% via the JV) is preserved under any new structure. ^[14]

For investors, it underscores how geopolitical risk remains a central theme in the portfolio, even as Shell tilts more of its capital to OECD deepwater and LNG projects.

3. Short‑Term Noise: Gulf of Mexico Platform Shutdowns

On December 9, Shell confirmed that production at its Whale and Perdido platforms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was temporarily shut in due to a shutdown of the Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System (HOOPS). ^[15]

Key details:

Whale was producing about 90,000 barrels per day, while Perdido produced around 57,000 barrels per day in September, according to market analytics estimates. ^[16]
Both platforms were expected to resume production by the end of Tuesday, suggesting a short‑lived disruption. ^[17]

From a valuation standpoint, this looks like operational noise, not a thesis‑changing event. However, it’s a reminder that infrastructure bottlenecks (like pipelines) can temporarily affect even world‑class deepwater assets.

4. Share Buybacks and Dividends: Cash Machine Still Running

Daily buybacks continue

On 10 December 2025, Shell disclosed that it had repurchased 1,507,757 ordinary shares for cancellation under its current buyback programme:

757,623 shares on the London Stock Exchange at a volume‑weighted average price (VWAP) of £27.2388.
750,134 shares on Euronext Amsterdam at a VWAP of €31.2671. ^[18]

This is part of a buyback wave running from 30 October 2025 to 30 January 2026, executed by Merrill Lynch International under preset parameters. ^[19]

Q3 2025: another strong quarter

In its Q3 2025 results, published on 30 October, Shell reported: ^[20]

Adjusted earnings: US$5.4 billion
Cash flow from operations (CFFO): US$12.2 billion
Net debt: US$41.2 billion
Record production in Brazil and a 20‑year high in the Gulf of America, supporting strong upstream performance.

Crucially, Shell kicked off another US$3.5 billion share buyback for the following three months — the 16th consecutive quarter with at least US$3 billion repurchased. ^[21]

Dividend remains steady

For Q3 2025, Shell’s interim dividend stands at US$0.358 per share, consistent with earlier 2025 payouts, with euro and sterling equivalents announced this week. ^[22]

Taken together, buybacks plus dividends continue to deliver double‑digit cash yields at current share price levels, one of the main pillars of the bull case.

5. Energy Transition Moves: SAF in Egypt, Brazil Offshore and Adura

Shell’s latest actions show it is not just doubling down on fossil assets; it is also leaning into lower‑carbon fuels and reshaping its legacy upstream footprint.

5.1 Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) offtake in Egypt

Today, Shell announced a long‑term agreement to buy 100% of the output from a new SAF plant to be built by Green Sky Capital in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone: ^[23]

The plant is expected to start operations by end‑2027.
Design capacity is up to 145,000 tonnes per year of SAF, plus bionaphtha and biopropane.
The project aims to cut up to 500,000 tonnes of CO₂e emissions per year, supporting aviation decarbonisation targets.

Shell already delivers SAF to more than 80 locations in 18 countries, and was responsible for nearly 20% of total SAF sales in Europe and North America in 2024. ^[24]

This deal strengthens Shell’s global low‑carbon fuel supply chain and provides commercial certainty for Egypt’s first commercial‑scale SAF facility — a useful proof‑point for Shell’s “more value with less emissions” strategy.

5.2 Brazil: more Santos Basin exposure

At the start of December, a Zacks Equity Research note highlighted Shell’s move to acquire four new exploration blocks in Brazil’s Santos Basin, deepening its long‑term exposure to one of the world’s most prolific offshore regions. ^[25]

These blocks complement Shell’s existing pre‑salt positions (such as the Mero and Atapu developments) and fit the company’s strategy of scaling advantaged deepwater with relatively low unit costs and high margins.

5.3 Adura: combining North Sea operations with Equinor

On 1 December 2025, Shell and Norway’s Equinor completed the formation of Adura, a 50:50 joint venture combining their UK North Sea oil and gas operations and creating the largest independent producer in the basin. ^[26]

Adura manages Equinor’s stakes in fields like Mariner, Rosebank and Buzzard.
It also operates Shell’s interests in assets including Shearwater, Penguins, Gannet, Nelson, Pierce, Jackdaw, Victory, Clair and Schiehallion. ^[27]

For Shell, this JV:

Simplifies its UK portfolio under a single independent operator.
Targets cost‑competitive operations, which matters in a mature, high‑tax basin.
Frees up capital and management bandwidth for higher‑growth themes (deepwater Brazil, LNG, low‑carbon projects).

6. Argentina: Out of LNG Phase, Into Long‑Term Oil Exports

Shell’s recent moves in Argentina highlight a more selective approach to capital deployment in the country.

On 4 December, YPF’s CEO told Reuters that Shell has stepped away from a phase of a planned 12 mtpa LNG project after the project’s scope was cut from 12 mtpa to 6 mtpa, with YPF now seeking a replacement partner. ^[28]
On 5 December, Shell Argentina joined YPF, Vista and Equinor in signing a major shale oil export agreement with Chile’s ENAP, supplying crude from the Vaca Muerta formation via the Trans‑Andean pipeline. The deal runs until June 2033, with an initial volume of up to 70,000 barrels per day and an expected US$12 billion in revenue for Argentina over its duration. ^[29]

The LNG exit suggests Shell is disciplined about project economics and scope changes, while the long‑term oil export deal locks in demand for its Argentine barrels into the next decade.

7. How the Market Sees Shell: Valuation and 2026 Stock Forecasts

Current share price snapshot

According to TickerNerd’s consolidated data (U.S. listing, ticker SHEL): ^[30]

Share price: US$72.55
Market cap: ~US$207–208 billion
52‑week range: US$58.55 – US$77.47
Year‑to‑date gain: +15.8%
1‑year gain: +12.7%

Analyst price targets

Wall Street remains broadly constructive:

TickerNerd reports a median 12‑month target of US$81, with a range of US$78–91, implying about +11.6% upside from today’s level. ^[31]
Their tally shows 10 Buy, 8 Hold, and 0 Sell ratings — a bullish overall consensus. ^[32]
On the London listing (SHEL.L), TradingView aggregates a 1‑year price target of 3,120.22p, with a max estimate of 3,956.22p and a floor of 2,668.42p; 34 analysts’ ratings lean toward a “buy” stance. ^[33]

While methodologies differ, the message is consistent: the Street expects mid‑single to low‑double‑digit price appreciation plus a healthy dividend.

Fundamental valuation views

Simply Wall St’s latest deep‑dive (10 December) highlights that: ^[34]

Shell’s share price is up 12.9% over the past year and 143.5% over five years, but has slipped 1.9% in the last week and 4% over the last month amid shifting sentiment on oil prices and the energy transition.
On their internal scorecard, Shell scores 4/6 on valuation checks, indicating apparent undervaluation on several metrics.
A two‑stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests the stock trades at roughly a 50% discount to their estimate of intrinsic value, leading them to label Shell as “UNDERVALUED” on a DCF basis.
They note a current P/E of 14.3x, slightly above the broader oil & gas industry average (~13.4x) but below a “fair” P/E of 18.5x derived from Shell’s growth and risk profile, again implying valuation headroom.

Of course, valuation tools rely on assumptions about future oil prices, capital allocation and the pace of energy transition — all inherently uncertain.

Important: None of these targets or models are guarantees. They are scenarios based on current information and should be treated as inputs, not answers.

8. Key Risks and What to Watch Next

Even with strong cash generation and seemingly attractive valuation, Shell is not risk‑free. Investors tracking the stock into 2026 should keep an eye on:

Commodity prices and macro: Lower oil and gas prices would directly pressure earnings, cash flow and the affordability of both buybacks and energy‑transition projects.
Geopolitical risk:
- The unwind of the Rosneft JV must navigate sanctions and Russian regulatory risk. ^[35]
- Exposure to countries like Nigeria, Argentina and Russia‑adjacent assets introduces political and regulatory uncertainty. ^[36]
Energy transition and regulation: Climate policy, carbon pricing and litigation risk can affect both asset values and allowed emissions trajectories. Shell’s 2025 Capital Markets Day reinforced its commitment to “more value with less emissions,” but execution remains under scrutiny. ^[37]
Project execution:
- Bringing new deepwater and LNG projects on line (Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea via Adura) on time and on budget. ^[38]
- Delivering on SAF and other low‑carbon ventures at attractive returns, including the Green Sky Capital plant in Egypt. ^[39]

9. Bottom Line

On 10 December 2025, Shell remains exactly what it has long been — a powerful cash‑generating machine — but the shape of that machine is changing:

It is adding scale in premium deepwater plays (LLOG, Santos Basin, Gulf of Mexico) and consolidating mature basins (Adura in the North Sea).
It is untangling legacy Russian exposure while trying to keep valuable infrastructure stakes like CPC.
It is pushing further into low‑carbon fuels, notably SAF in Egypt, while remaining selective about large, long‑dated projects such as Argentina’s LNG megaproject.
And it is returning huge amounts of cash to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, even as it navigates the uncertainties of the energy transition.

For investors and observers, the coming months will test whether Shell can keep balancing high‑return hydrocarbonswith credible decarbonisation — and whether today’s mix of buybacks, growth projects and restructuring justifies the upbeat forecasts for 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a regulated financial adviser before making investment decisions.