Shell PLC (SHEL) Stock on 9 December 2025: Buybacks, New Oil Deals and What Analysts Forecast for 2026

Shell PLC (ticker: SHEL) remains one of the most closely watched energy stocks in global markets. As of 9 December 2025, the oil and gas major is trading slightly below its recent highs, but it is backed by robust free cash flow, an aggressive share buyback programme, steady dividends and a fresh round of upstream deals that could shape its long‑term production profile.

This article compiles the latest news, analyst forecasts and valuation commentary around Shell stock up to 9 December 2025, with a focus on what it means for investors watching SHEL on the London Stock Exchange, Euronext Amsterdam and the NYSE.

Shell share price today: where SHEL stands on 9 December 2025

Across its main listings, Shell PLC stock is hovering just under its recent peaks:

London (SHEL.L): Shell closed at 2,750p on 8 December 2025, after slipping from early November highs around 2,938p (£29.38). That leaves the LSE listing roughly 6% below its 52‑week high. ^[1]
Amsterdam (SHELL.AS): On 9 December 2025, Shell is trading around €31.5, within a 52‑week range of roughly €26.5–34.2. ^[2]
New York ADR (SHEL): The NYSE‑listed ADR last closed at $72.70 on 8 December 2025, after falling from a recent closing high just above $77 earlier in the year. ^[3]

In short, Shell PLC stock is trading near the upper part of its 12‑month range but below recent peaks, reflecting strong fundamentals offset by softer oil prices and lingering concerns around long‑term oil demand and climate policy. ^[4]

Key news shaping Shell stock going into December 2025

1. Q3 2025: strong earnings and cash flow

Shell’s third‑quarter 2025 results, published on 30 October, confirmed that the company continues to be a cash‑generating machine even in a lower oil‑price environment:

Adjusted earnings:$5.4 billion, up from $4.3 billion in Q2 2025.
Cash flow from operations:$12.2 billion.
Free cash flow: about $10 billion.
Net debt: cut from $43.2 billion to $41.2 billion, with gearing at 18.8%. ^[5]

The company also reported $3.6 billion of share repurchases in Q3 alone and highlighted strong performance from integrated gas, upstream and marketing segments. ^[6]

2. New $3.5 billion buyback and ongoing daily repurchases

On the same day as its Q3 results, Shell launched a new $3.5 billion share buyback programme, expected to complete before the Q4 2025 results announcement. ^[7]

Since then, the company has been reporting near‑daily “transaction in own shares” notices, including:

1,480,344 shares repurchased on 8 December 2025 across the LSE, BATS and Euronext Amsterdam at volume‑weighted average prices around £27.49 and €31.53. ^[8]
Multiple earlier buyback disclosures in November and early December, typically around 700–1,500k shares per day for cancellation. ^[9]

A Wall Street Journal summary notes that Shell has now kept buybacks at $3 billion or more per quarter for 16 consecutive quarters, retiring more than a quarter of its shares in four years—an unusually consistent capital‑return story among the oil majors. ^[10]

For shareholders, this shrinking share count amplifies earnings per share and dividend capacity, and it helps explain why many analysts consider SHEL undervalued on a cash‑flow basis despite macro uncertainty. ^[11]

3. Dividends: steady income with ~4% yield

Shell’s board announced a Q3 2025 interim dividend of $0.358 per ordinary share, or $0.716 per ADR, payable on 18 December 2025 to shareholders of record following the 14 November ex‑dividend date. ^[12]

Based on the current share price, Shell’s trailing dividend yield is around 3.9–4.0%, with coverage described by several data providers as “comfortably supported by earnings.” ^[13]

Together with the buyback, Shell is returning well above 10% of its market cap annually via combined dividends and repurchases—a key pillar of the current investment case. ^[14]

4. New upstream deals: South Africa’s Orange Basin and Brazil deepwater

Shell is also quietly reshaping its long‑term production pipeline:

South Africa (Orange Basin): A document seen by Reuters shows PetroSA has approved Shell Offshore as 60% operator of Block 2C off South Africa’s west coast. Shell will pay a $25 million signing bonus and fund three exploration wells estimated at $135–150 million, deepening its exposure to a basin that has already yielded major discoveries in neighbouring Namibia. ^[15]
Brazil: A consortium led by Shell and Petrobras recently increased their stakes in the Atapu and Mero offshore oil projects, bolstering Shell’s deepwater growth options in one of its most profitable regions. ^[16]
Indonesia: Shell has restarted gasoline sales at its Indonesian retail network after earlier supply constraints, signalling operational normalisation in a fast‑growing downstream market. ^[17]

At the same time, a Breakingviews column from Reuters points out a looming production “hole” of around 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2035 if Shell maintains current capital‑spending and decline rates. The piece argues that Shell may need further deals—potentially including a stake or even a full bid for Portugal’s Galp Energia—to fill that gap, especially given Galp’s large Mopane discovery in Namibia. ^[18]

5. Debt exchange and balance sheet optimisation

Shell has also been reshaping its debt stack. A series of US note exchange offers—final results for which were reported in early December—saw investors swap about $6.35 billion of existing Shell notes into new securities issued by a US financing arm. The goal is to simplify the capital structure while maintaining investment‑grade metrics. ^[19]

How is Shell stock performing vs the market?

Short‑term price action has been slightly choppy:

On 5 December 2025, Shell shares in London fell 1.4% to £27.60, underperforming a weaker FTSE 100 and moving further away from the November high. ^[20]
Over November, MarketWatch data show Shell repeatedly testing the upper part of its range, hitting a fresh 52‑week high near £29.32 on 11 November before pulling back. ^[21]
Investor’s Business Daily notes that Shell’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating—a one‑year price‑performance metric—has climbed into the low‑70s, signalling improving performance but still below the “elite” 80+ zone typical for leading growth stocks. ^[22]

In other words, SHEL has been a solid but not spectacular outperformer, behaving more like a high‑yield, cash‑rich value stock than a momentum name.

Analyst ratings and price targets for Shell PLC (SHEL)

Consensus view: generally positive, with upside

Multiple analyst‑tracking platforms show broadly constructive views on Shell PLC stock:

MarketBeat: 22 analysts give Shell an average 12‑month price target of about $79.9, implying nearly 10% upside from a recent ADR price around $72.7. ^[23]
Fintel / Nasdaq (J.P. Morgan Cazenove): As of 6 December 2025, the average one‑year price target for the ADR is $88.9, suggesting about 22% upside from $73.01, with a wide range from roughly $72.6 to $164.8. ^[24]
MarketWatch analyst summary: Aggregated ratings put Shell at “Overweight” with an average target around $84, based on more than 30 analyst opinions. ^[25]
Public.com forecast: A smaller sample of eight analysts gives SHEL a “Buy” consensus and a price prediction around $81.1. ^[26]

Taken together, most sell‑side analysts see mid‑teens percentage upside over the next 12 months, supported by strong free cash flow, disciplined capital spending and the buyback.

Zacks and valuation metrics

Zacks’ latest equity research report (dated 9 December 2025) rates Shell as a “Hold” (Rank #3) with a 6–12 month price target of $82, up from a previous “Underperform”. ^[27]

Valuation snapshots from several data providers show:

Forward P/E: roughly 11–12x earnings, slightly above the integrated‑oil peer average but still well below the broader market. ^[28]
Free‑cash‑flow yield: estimates around 12–13%, indicating that Shell’s market cap is low relative to its cash‑generating power. ^[29]
Price‑to‑book: around 1.2x for the London line and roughly 2–2.5x for some ADR metrics, depending on methodology. ^[30]

This combination—mid‑teens P/E, double‑digit FCF yield and a near‑4% dividend—is what leads many commentators to argue that Shell is still modestly undervalued, especially if management delivers on its free‑cash‑flow growth targets. ^[31]

Strategy and the energy transition: double‑edged for Shell stock

Shell’s long‑term strategy is built around a simple promise: “more value with less emissions”, targeting net‑zero emissions by 2050 while delivering >10% annual free cash flow per share growth to 2030. ^[32]

Key pillars include:

Maintaining flat to modestly growing hydrocarbon production, focusing on the most profitable barrels such as Brazilian deepwater and Gulf of Mexico assets. ^[33]
Expanding LNG and gas as “transition fuels”, where Shell already has leading market share. ^[34]
Investing selectively in low‑carbon solutions (renewables, EV charging, carbon credits, decarbonisation services) while prioritising shareholder returns. ^[35]

However, this strategy faces controversy and risk:

Climate‑focused investor group Follow This and other critics argue that Shell’s continued investment in oil and gas risks stranded assets and long‑term value destruction if demand and regulation tighten in line with IEA net‑zero scenarios. ^[36]
Shell’s exploration push offshore South Africa has already seen court challenges and environmental opposition, underlining non‑financial risks attached to new frontier acreage. ^[37]

For the stock, this means that near‑term cash returns are very attractive, but long‑term multiples may remain capped until the market is more comfortable with Shell’s decarbonisation path and demand outlook beyond the 2030s.

Short‑, medium‑ and long‑term outlook for Shell PLC stock

Next 6–12 months

Under consensus assumptions—Brent crude hovering in a moderate range, LNG markets relatively stable and no severe recession—analysts generally expect: ^[38]

Solid earnings and cash flow broadly in line with 2024–2025 levels.
Continued quarterly buybacks of around $3.5 billion, at least through early 2026, subject to commodity prices. ^[39]
A stable or gently rising dividend, with scope for further increases if net debt continues to fall. ^[40]

In this time frame, Shell PLC stock is mainly a cash‑return story: total shareholder yield (dividends plus buybacks) could be comfortably in the double digits if current programmes are maintained.

2–5 years: execution and M&A risk

By the late 2020s, Shell’s performance will depend heavily on:

Successful delivery of deepwater projects in Brazil and new basins such as the Orange Basin. ^[41]
The company’s ability to replace declining legacy fields without overspending or overpaying in M&A.
The pace of electrification and policy‑driven demand shifts, which could either support gas and LNG as transition fuels or accelerate a move away from hydrocarbons. ^[42]

The Reuters Breakingviews analysis suggests that M&A is likely to stay on the table as Shell looks to fill its projected production gap, but large “mega‑mergers” (like buying BP outright) are considered unlikely by CEO Wael Sawan; instead, the focus is on targeted deals and asset acquisitions. ^[43]

Beyond 2030: the big unknown

Farther out, Shell’s valuation will be governed less by today’s buybacks and more by:

The speed of the global energy transition and policy responses to climate change. ^[44]
How successfully Shell adapts its portfolio toward lower‑carbon, higher‑return opportunities (LNG, renewables, decarbonisation services) while still monetising existing oil and gas assets. ^[45]

That uncertainty explains why Shell trades at single‑digit to low‑double‑digit multiples, despite its robust current profitability. Investors are effectively being paid an attractive cash yield today as compensation for long‑term structural risk. ^[46]

Bottom line

As of 9 December 2025, Shell PLC (SHEL) sits in an interesting position:

Share price: near the upper part of its one‑year range, but several percentage points below recent highs. ^[47]
Fundamentals: strong earnings, high free cash flow and a rapidly shrinking share count. ^[48]
Shareholder returns: a near‑4% dividend and a multi‑billion‑dollar quarterly buyback that few peers are matching. ^[49]
Analyst view: generally Buy/Overweight with mid‑teens percentage upside over 12 months, though Zacks and some others sit at a more cautious Hold. ^[50]
Risks: long‑term demand uncertainty, climate policy and execution risk on new projects and potential acquisitions. ^[51]

For investors screening for large‑cap energy exposure with strong cash returns, Shell PLC stock remains a central candidate as of today. However, decisions to buy, hold or sell SHEL depend heavily on individual risk tolerance, time horizon and views on the speed of the global energy transition.