Shell Plc stock is heading into year-end with a familiar mix of forces tugging on the share price: a steady drumbeat of buybacks and project approvals on one side, and a crude market that looks increasingly “range-bound” in the low-$60s with a 2026 oversupply narrative on the other.
As of 00:15 UTC on Tuesday, December 23, Shell’s U.S.-listed shares (NYSE: SHEL) traded around $72.58. In London, Shell (SHEL.L) recently closed near £27, still below its 52-week high around £29.38, according to MarketWatch data. [1]
Below is a full, investor-focused roundup of the key Shell Plc stock headlines, market drivers, forecasts, and analyst themes in play on 23.12.2025—with dates clearly called out so you can separate “today’s” catalyst from the broader December backdrop.
Shell stock’s biggest near-term support: the buyback machine keeps running
Shell’s capital return strategy remains front-and-center, and it’s not subtle.
- Shell has an active $3.5 billion share buyback programme (announced October 30, 2025) that the company intends to complete before its Q4 2025 results announcement (subject to market conditions). [2]
- The programme runs under parameters where Merrill Lynch International makes trading decisions independently over the contract term (as disclosed in Shell’s buyback transaction announcements). [3]
Latest disclosed buyback (Dec. 22 purchases, published Dec. 23)
In its most recent “Transaction in Own Shares” disclosure dated 22 December 2025, Shell reported buying shares for cancellation across its main European venues, including:
- 735,375 shares on the London Stock Exchange (VWAP about £27.0718), and
- 728,790 shares on Euronext Amsterdam (VWAP about €30.8309). [4]
Daily buyback disclosures don’t usually create fireworks on their own—but they matter because they mechanically reduce share count and can cushion dips during quiet macro sessions. In plain English: when the company is consistently in the market as a buyer, it can change the “feel” of pullbacks.
The macro backdrop on Dec. 23: oil is steady, but the market can’t stop talking about oversupply
Shell stock is still, at its core, a leveraged bet on energy prices—especially crude and LNG margins—plus how efficiently Shell turns those into cash flow.
On Dec. 23, 2025, Reuters reported oil prices holding roughly steady after the prior day’s jump, with Brent around $62.01/bbl and WTI around $57.92/bbl, as traders weighed geopolitical risks (notably Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine) against bearish fundamentals like weak demand and ample supply. [5]
That “geopolitical premium vs. oversupply” tug-of-war is basically the whole Shell stock story in one sentence.
China’s stockpiling is becoming a price lever (and that matters for Shell)
Another Reuters analysis argues China has effectively overtaken OPEC+ as the most influential swing factor in oil pricing—by accelerating crude stockpiling when prices dip and easing off when prices rise. [6]
For Shell investors, that’s not trivia. It’s a signal that oil may be increasingly governed by inventory behavior as much as production quotas—potentially compressing volatility, but also making demand signals harder to read.
Forecasts: what analysts think oil does in 2026 (and why Shell investors care)
Because Shell returns capital aggressively (dividends + buybacks), investors obsess over the forward oil deck. Here are the most-cited forecasts shaping sentiment into year-end:
- A Reuters poll published in late November projects Brent averaging about $62.23/bbl in 2026 and U.S. crude about $59.00/bbl, explicitly flagging an oversupply environment as a dominant risk. [7]
- In contrast, a Goldman Sachs note (reported by Reuters) forecast lower 2026 averages—around $56 Brent and $52 WTI—unless large disruptions or OPEC cuts rebalance the market. [8]
That range matters for Shell’s buyback “gear.” At higher prices, Shell can more easily sustain both the dividend and multi-billion buybacks. In a lower-price regime, the dividend tends to be stickier while buybacks become the more flexible dial.
Company-specific Shell news moving the stock in December
Shell’s December newsflow has been unusually dense across upstream investment, portfolio management, litigation, and governance. Here are the most material headlines investors have been digesting heading into Dec. 23.
1) Shell approves a Gulf of Mexico waterflood project to lift recovery
Shell has taken a final investment decision for a waterflood project at Kaikias in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, expected to increase recovery by about 60 million barrels of oil equivalent and extend the life of the Ursa platform. Reuters also noted the first phase of water injection is planned to begin in 2028. [9]
For the stock, this reinforces Shell’s strategy: prioritize cash-generative upstream barrels (especially advantaged deepwater) while funding shareholder returns.
2) Namibia exploration: Shell is going back to the Orange Basin—carefully
Reuters reported Shell is preparing a new drilling campaign offshore Namibia (PEL 39) from April 2026, after previously taking around a $400 million write-down in January on a discovery it deemed commercially unviable. The region remains a global exploration hotspot. [10]
This is high-risk/high-optionality: successes can be meaningful, but the market has learned to discount frontier exploration until results are tangible.
3) Shell and SLB partnership on “agentic AI” tools for upstream
Shell and SLB (formerly Schlumberger) are developing digital and “agentic AI-powered” solutions intended to improve upstream efficiency and decision-making. [11]
Investors generally like efficiency tech, but they’ll want proof it moves the needle in reliability, uptime, and unit costs—not just buzzwords.
4) LNG legal overhang: Venture Global pushes back on Shell’s fraud claims
A Reuters report says Venture Global filed a response rejecting Shell’s fraud allegations tied to an LNG arbitration dispute and accused Shell of breaching arbitration confidentiality. Shell declined to comment on Venture Global’s filings, according to Reuters. [12]
For Shell stock, this is a “headline risk” bucket item: uncertain timing, uncertain outcome, and difficult for outsiders to handicap—exactly the kind of thing that can widen a valuation discount when markets are jumpy.
5) Russia exposure management: Shell wants to dissolve a Rosneft JV linked to CPC stake
Reuters reported Shell wants to dissolve a joint venture with Rosneft through which it holds part of its interest in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Shell reportedly holds around 7.4% in CPC via three entities; one of them (the JV vehicle) holds 7.5% of CPC, and Shell owns about half of that vehicle—roughly 3.7% exposure through that route—while aiming to maintain the overall stake size. [13]
This is part legal hygiene, part geopolitical risk management—generally viewed as de-risking.
6) Audit scrutiny: UK regulator investigates EY’s Shell audit over rotation rules
Reuters reported the UK’s Financial Reporting Council opened an investigation into EY’s audit of Shell’s 2024 financial statements over potential breaches of audit partner rotation rules. Shell has said its 2023 and 2024 financial statements remain unchanged, and EY said it would cooperate. Reuters also reported EY told Shell its U.S. audit opinions for 2023–2024 should not be relied upon and that a different partner would reissue them. [14]
This isn’t the same as “numbers are wrong,” but it can still be a reputational and process risk—especially for institutions that hate governance uncertainty.
7) Australia policy risk for LNG: domestic reservation rules from 2027
Reuters reported Australia will require east coast LNG exporters to reserve 15%–25% of output for domestic use from 2027, applying to new contracts. Analysts warned it could hurt LNG supply and push buyers away; Reuters also noted the wording may broaden impact (potentially touching Northern Territory gas and projects like Barossa and Ichthys). [15]
Shell is a major LNG player, so policy shifts that alter contract economics and export flexibility are not background noise.
8) Gulf of Mexico deal chatter: Harbour Energy buys LLOG; Shell previously explored it
Reuters reported Harbour Energy is buying LLOG Exploration for $3.2 billion. The article also said Shell had previously explored buying LLOG earlier in December. [16]
The take-away for Shell investors: deepwater assets remain strategically valuable, competition is real, and discipline around M&A (when applied) can be a virtue.
Shell’s next major catalyst: Q4 results and the dividend timeline is now pinned down
Shell has already published a clear timetable.
- Shell will release Q4 2025 results and the Q4 2025 interim dividend announcement on Thursday, February 5, 2026 at 07:00 GMT. [17]
- Shell’s financial calendar also lists a Q4 2025 “Quarterly Update Release” on January 8, 2026, ahead of the full results. [18]
- Dividend timetable details include ex-dividend dates of Feb. 19, 2026 for ordinary shares and Feb. 20, 2026 for ADSs (per Shell’s published timetable). [19]
For Shell stock, that February window is where the market will reprice the name if guidance surprises—especially around LNG trading/optimization, downstream margins, and the pace/continuity of buybacks.
How investors are framing Shell stock on Dec. 23: three practical scenarios
Rather than pretending anyone can “call” the next tick, most professional takes on Shell right now cluster into scenario buckets. Here’s the cleanest way to map them:
Scenario A: Oil holds in the low $60s, volatility stays muted
This is the “base case” implied by much of the polling and current price action. [20]
In this world, Shell’s narrative stays dominated by:
- capital returns (dividends + buybacks),
- deepwater execution (e.g., Kaikias/Ursa),
- and LNG/legal headline management.
Scenario B: Oversupply bites harder (mid-$50s oil becomes consensus)
This leans toward the more bearish bank outlook that expects lower averages in 2026 unless supply is curtailed. [21]
In this world, Shell’s buybacks become the key variable: investors start asking whether the pace slows—even if the dividend remains steady.
Scenario C: Geopolitics reintroduces a durable risk premium
Venezuela and Russia/Ukraine risks are already in the tape, but markets have treated them as intermittent rather than structural. [22]
If disruptions become sustained, oil can reprice quickly—and Shell typically re-rates with it, particularly given its upstream leverage and LNG footprint.
Bottom line for Shell Plc stock today
On 23.12.2025, Shell Plc stock sits at the intersection of:
- a strong capital return posture (active buybacks + the coming dividend cycle), [23]
- fresh upstream investment that supports medium-term production and cash flow (e.g., Kaikias waterflood), [24]
- and a macro tape dominated by oil in the low $60s with a loud, persistent 2026 oversupply debate. [25]
With January 8 (Q4 update) and February 5 (Q4 results + dividend announcement) now clearly flagged on Shell’s calendar, the near-term setup is straightforward: the market will keep rewarding consistency in cash returns—but it will demand evidence that Shell can defend those returns if the oil tape rolls over. [26]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.shell.com, 3. markets.businessinsider.com, 4. www.taiwannews.com.tw, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.shell.com, 18. www.shell.com, 19. www.shell.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.shell.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.shell.com
