London, Feb 7, 2026, 07:53 GMT — Market shut.
- Shell shares ticked up Friday, capping a turbulent week of earnings for oil majors.
- CEO Wael Sawan said the company plans to halt new investments in Kazakhstan for now, citing ongoing legal disputes.
- Buybacks, reserves, and those looming dividend dates are all on traders’ radar.
Shell is hitting the brakes on new investments in Kazakhstan amid ongoing legal fights with the government, Chief Executive Wael Sawan said. The move injects a new layer of risk for the oil major, just as investors look toward next week.
Shell finished Friday’s session at 2,774.5 pence, gaining 0.18% in London trading. The stock moved between 2,741.5 and 2,792.5 pence on the day. 1
Timing’s crucial here. Shell just turned in a profit miss and stuck with its buyback. Now, a headline reopens questions about its geopolitical and legal risks—precisely the baggage investors would rather ignore while crude prices carry the load.
Kazakhstan isn’t exactly a sideshow. The wrangling involves two major flagship fields—disputes here could end up influencing just how hard Shell leans in on capital spending for large, long-term projects in the coming years.
Kazakhstan is pursuing arbitration against the developers at Kashagan and Karachaganak, seeking $13 billion and $3.5 billion in contested costs. Sawan told analysts these legal battles are weighing on Shell’s willingness to put more money into Kazakhstan, saying the company wants “better line of sight” before moving forward. 2
Shell shares dropped 3.4% Thursday after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings fell short of forecasts, knocking London energy stocks down with them. 3
Shell posted a fourth-quarter net profit of $3.3 billion, coming in short of the $3.5 billion adjusted earnings forecast from its own poll—a figure the company favors as its main profit metric. The oil major is keeping its $3.5 billion quarterly share buyback intact and bumped its dividend 4% to $0.372 per share. Chief Financial Officer Sinead Gorman called the payout range “sacrosanct.” RBC analysts highlighted a slide in Shell’s reserve life, now at 7.8 years compared to 8.9 years previously, potentially inviting more scrutiny of the company’s M&A plans. CEO Wael Sawan said recent acquisitions and efforts in the field have mostly covered a projected 100,000–200,000 boed shortfall (barrels of oil equivalent per day) anticipated by decade’s end. 4
RBC is dialing back its outlook on the stock. Analyst Biraj Borkhataria slashed Shell to “Sector Perform” from “Outperform” and lowered his price target to 3,200p, down from 3,600p. He pointed to a rare “double miss” on both guidance and results, with added worries about Shell’s depth of resources. 5
Governance keeps surfacing. Shell tapped PwC to succeed EY as its auditor starting in 2027, after a tender process prompted by questions over audit partner rotation rules. The company also plans to revise its 2023 and 2024 annual reports, but the financial statements themselves won’t change. 6
Investors are also watching LNG developments, with Shell in the spotlight. According to sources cited by Reuters, Atlantic LNG in Trinidad will take its Train 4 unit offline for maintenance starting May 4, with work expected to last 45 to 50 days. That outage could knock out more than 600,000 metric tons of output. Both Shell and BP each hold a 45% stake in the facility. 7
Shell’s buyback continues quietly. On Feb. 6, the company acquired and plans to cancel 1,637,748 shares across London and European exchanges, with Morgan Stanley handling trades on its own discretion until May 1. 8
Still, there’s no shortage of risk. A steeper hit from Kazakhstan arbitration, sharper drops in oil and gas, or further softness in chemicals and trading could all put pressure on buybacks and dividends. Any wobble in payout discipline, and the shares will likely feel it.
The dividend timeline is on deck. Shell’s ordinary shares are set to go ex-dividend Feb. 19—pick up shares after that, no dividend. Payment’s scheduled for March 30. For U.S. ADS holders, ex-dividend lands Feb. 20. More details at 9 .
