Shopify Inc. stock finished Thursday’s session (Dec. 18, 2025) with a strong gain, powered by a one-two punch: a wave of Wall Street price-target increases and a broader tech rebound after a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print. By the time the closing bell rang, the market had largely digested the day’s catalysts—leaving after-hours trading relatively calm.
Below is a detailed look at what moved Shopify stock today, what analysts are forecasting now, and the key data points and market events to watch before Friday’s open (Dec. 19, 2025).
Shopify stock price today: close, range, and after-hours check
Shopify (ticker: SHOP) ended the regular session at $166.80, up $5.07 (+3.14%), according to the company’s investor relations quote page. The stock traded between an intraday high of $172.96 and an intraday low of $165.30, with volume around 7.83 million shares. [1]
In the first stretch of after-hours trading, SHOP was essentially unchanged: MarketWatch showed $166.79 at 4:30 p.m. ET, down $0.01 (-0.01%), with after-hours volume of about 254K shares. [2]
That “flat after-hours” action matters: it suggests there was no major late-breaking company headline immediately following the close—and that traders are now shifting attention to Friday’s macro calendar and positioning-related flows.
Why Shopify stock rose Thursday: upgrades + a rate-friendly macro backdrop
1) Wall Street raised targets (again), with AI-commerce as the headline thesis
Shopify’s move wasn’t just a generic “tech up” day. Several research desks lifted price targets and reiterated bullish theses tied to Shopify’s positioning in what analysts increasingly describe as AI-driven commerce discovery and conversion.
A market recap of the upgrades highlighted multiple raised targets, including:
- Bank of America lifting its target to $190 (from $185)
- DA Davidson raising to $195 (maintaining a Buy stance)
- Wells Fargo lifting to $198 (maintaining Overweight)
- Morgan Stanley raising to $192, with other firms (including BMO and Scotiabank) also boosting forecasts [3]
Wells Fargo’s note was especially aggressive in framing Shopify as a long-duration winner of changing consumer “search and discovery” behavior. In a summary of that call, the firm argued Shopify is positioned to benefit as AI reshapes product discovery, and it raised its price target to $198 from $125, keeping an Overweight rating. [4]
BofA’s upgrade summary also leaned into fundamentals and share gains, pointing to Shopify’s outperformance in key growth metrics and raising its target to $190 while maintaining a Buy rating. [5]
Meanwhile, an Oppenheimer update (as summarized in market coverage) emphasized that Shopify is expected to hold free-cash-flow margins even as it becomes a cash taxpayer, and that ongoing AI investments are reflected in gross margins without management signaling a material long-term deterioration. [6]
The takeaway: Thursday’s rally had a clear narrative catalyst—“AI + commerce rails + upgrades”—rather than being purely momentum-driven.
2) Softer CPI pushed yields down, helping high-multiple growth stocks
The macro tailwind was real. Reuters reported that November CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year versus a 3.1% forecast, with core CPI at 2.6%—data complicated by collection disruptions tied to the long federal government shutdown, but still “soft enough” to lift hopes for further Fed rate cuts. [7]
In that context, U.S. equities bounced broadly. Reuters noted the S&P 500 rose 0.79% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%, with tech providing a major boost, while Treasury yields dipped. [8]
Because Shopify’s valuation depends heavily on future cash flows, lower yields and a more rate-cut-friendly outlook tend to mechanically support the stock’s multiple—amplifying moves when company-specific news (like upgrades) hits at the same time.
The forecast picture now: what analysts and guidance imply into 2026
Shopify’s own Q4 setup: growth + disciplined spending, with FCF a focal point
While today’s move was driven by analyst commentary and macro, investors still anchor on Shopify’s latest company guidance heading into the holiday quarter finish.
In its Q3 update, Shopify said that for Q4 2025 it expected:
- Revenue growth in the mid-to-high twenties (%) year over year
- Gross profit dollars growth in the low-to-mid twenties (%)
- Operating expense at 30%–31% of revenue
- Free cash flow margin slightly above Q3 2025 [9]
This is important because it frames what “good enough” execution looks like as the market looks ahead to early-2026 earnings.
Street-style estimates: growth is strong, but valuation is the debate
A recent Nasdaq/Zacks analysis pegged consensus-style expectations at roughly:
- 2025 revenue: $11.45B (about +29% YoY)
- 2025 EPS: $1.45 [10]
That same analysis also flags the central push-pull: Shopify’s growth and execution have been strong, but the stock trades at a premium versus peers, making the “room for error” smaller. [11]
Some of the upgrade commentary also acknowledges this tension explicitly. For example, BofA’s summary described the stock as effectively “priced to perfection” even while highlighting strong GMV growth and sustained share gains. [12]
And in valuation terms, one note summary referenced Shopify trading at a very high P/E (around ~120)—a reminder that macro (rates) and sentiment can matter as much as quarter-to-quarter execution when multiples are elevated. [13]
Holiday demand context: Shopify’s Black Friday-Cyber Monday data stays in focus
Even though it wasn’t “new today,” Shopify’s holiday data remains part of the bullish backdrop analysts are pointing to.
Shopify reported that merchants generated $14.6 billion in sales over Black Friday-Cyber Monday, up 27% from last year (24% on a constant-currency basis). [14]
For investors, this matters less as a single headline number and more as evidence that Shopify continues to capture commerce volume at scale—and can monetize that ecosystem through payments, merchant solutions, and new AI-enabled features.
Key levels investors are watching after today’s run
Even if you’re not a technical trader, a few reference points are now obvious from the tape:
- $172.96: Thursday’s intraday high—near-term “breakout attempt” level if momentum continues. [15]
- $166–$167 area: the closing zone and early after-hours print—often a short-term “line in the sand” for sentiment into Friday. [16]
- $182.19: the 52-week high cited on Shopify’s quote page—an obvious medium-term upside reference if the rally broadens. [17]
Also worth noting: Shopify’s 52-week low on that same quote page is $69.84, which underscores how far the stock has already run in the past year—and why valuation sensitivity is a constant theme. [18]
What to know before the market opens Friday, Dec. 19, 2025
Friday’s session has a different feel than a typical day—both because of the economic calendar and because of market structure.
1) “Triple witching” Friday could amplify volatility (without predicting direction)
Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, is the third Friday of December—one of the quarterly “triple witching” sessions when multiple major derivatives contracts expire, a setup that can drive heavier volume and sharper intraday moves. [19]
For SHOP specifically, that can show up as:
- Faster moves around the open and close
- Bigger “pinning” behavior around popular strike prices
- More mechanical buying/selling tied to hedging flows (not fundamentals)
2) Watch 10:00 a.m. ET: Existing-home sales and Michigan sentiment
Two scheduled U.S. releases to have on the radar Friday morning:
- Existing-home sales (November 2025) are scheduled for Friday, Dec. 19, 2025 at 10:00 a.m. ET, per the National Association of Realtors. [20]
- The University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment is also scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET. [21]
Why it matters for Shopify: these reports shape the market’s view of consumer resilience and rate expectations—both of which can influence high-growth, consumer-adjacent tech stocks.
3) Don’t get caught by a calendar trap: BEA rescheduled Personal Income & Outlays (Core PCE)
If you see commentary suggesting the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (Core PCE) is due Friday, double-check it.
The BEA posted schedule updates noting that Personal Income and Outlays (November 2025)—the release that includes PCE metrics—was originally scheduled for Dec. 19 but moved to Dec. 23. [22]
4) Rate politics are part of the backdrop
Late Thursday brought another reminder that markets are also trading the future path of Fed policy leadership.
Reuters reported President Donald Trump said he interviewed Fed Governor Christopher Waller as a potential candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell’s term ends in May, and that several finalists remain. [23]
For a stock like Shopify—whose multiple can expand or contract with rate expectations—headline risk around Fed direction can matter even when company news is quiet.
5) Holiday-market mechanics: exchanges stay open Dec 24 and Dec 26, but liquidity can thin
Looking beyond Friday, traders are also navigating holiday-week liquidity and scheduling.
Reuters reported major U.S. exchanges plan to remain open on Dec. 24 (with the early close) and Dec. 26 (a full session), despite the federal government closure order for those dates. [24]
Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves in both directions—especially for widely held momentum names.
Bottom line for Shopify stock heading into Friday’s open
Shopify stock’s Thursday strength was driven by fresh bullish analyst framing—especially around AI-powered commerce discovery—and reinforced by a rate-friendly CPI surprise that lifted growth stocks broadly. The muted after-hours trade points to no obvious new catalyst after the close, shifting attention to Friday’s macro releases, options-expiration dynamics, and interest-rate narrative.
As always with high-multiple stocks, the near-term question isn’t only “Is Shopify executing?”—it’s also “Is the market willing to pay more for that execution next week than it did last week?”
References
1. shopifyinvestors.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.gurufocus.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. shopifyinvestors.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.shopify.com, 15. shopifyinvestors.com, 16. shopifyinvestors.com, 17. shopifyinvestors.com, 18. shopifyinvestors.com, 19. www.tastylive.com, 20. www.nar.realtor, 21. www.sca.isr.umich.edu, 22. www.bea.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com
