NEW YORK, Feb 13, 2026, 12:22 (EST) — Regular session
- Shopify shares bounced back in Friday’s session, recovering after two days of steep declines.
- The buyback kicks off next week. Still, cash-flow margin guidance continues to be a hurdle.
- Investors reconsidered software stocks in an AI-dominated market, keeping tech sentiment on edge.
Shopify Inc. climbed 1.6% to $112.40 around midday Friday, bouncing after back-to-back drops—down 6.8% on Thursday, 6.7% Wednesday. 1
This bounce is grabbing attention, mainly because the stock has turned into something of a litmus test for how much appetite investors have left for high-growth commerce software—especially with margins likely tightening and tech stocks moving in fits and starts.
Shopify has thrown in a fresh complication: a $2 billion share buyback kicks off Feb. 17, per a recent filing. The program doesn’t have a set end date and caps repurchases at 5% of Class A subordinate voting shares. 2
Shopify posted a 31% jump in fourth-quarter revenue, hitting $3.672 billion. The company’s GMV—covering all goods moved on its platform—came in at $123.841 billion. Free cash flow reached $715 million for the quarter. Looking ahead, Shopify expects first-quarter revenue to climb at a low-thirties percent pace, and sees free cash flow margin landing somewhere in the low-to-mid teens. CFO Jeff Hoffmeister called the buyback a move from a “position of financial and operating strength.” 3
The initial market response wasn’t pretty. Shopify turned in adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share, falling short of expectations after heavier spending on international growth, AI features, and marketing put pressure on profits. Investors took issue with the company’s cash-flow margin guidance, according to Reuters. “The AI era has now reached commerce,” said Shopify President Harley Finkelstein on the earnings call. He noted a 15-fold jump in orders flowing from AI-driven search queries since January 2025. 4
Stocks in the U.S. edged lower on Friday, wrapping up a week marked by losses. Tech shares weighed most heavily, even as softer-than-expected inflation figures for January provided some relief. “The trend in disinflation continues,” State Street Markets’ Michael Metcalfe said. 5
The main Canadian index took a steep hit Thursday, dragged down by tech as nerves over AI upheaval and a dimmer Fed rate cut outlook rattled investors. Shopify tumbled 6.1% in Toronto. “People are beginning to have some questions,” said Michael Sprung, president at Sprung Investment Management, flagging the scramble to separate AI winners from the rest. 6
Analysts haven’t wasted time. TD Cowen bumped Shopify up to “Buy” from “Hold,” sticking with the $159 target after shares slid post-earnings, pointing to valuation as the driver. 7 Michael Morton at MoffettNathanson got more constructive before the numbers, moving to “Buy” and raising his price target to $150. He dismissed the risk of merchants “vibe coding” their own alternatives as “effectively nonexistent.” 8
Still, there are landmines here. Should free cash flow margins fall harder than forecasts, or if those pricey software names keep taking hits as AI disruption worries persist, the buyback alone might not hold the stock up for long.
Investors now have their eyes on two things: if Shopify kicks off its buyback program once it goes live Feb. 17, and how next week’s U.S. numbers—retail sales hit Feb. 17, Fed meeting minutes land Feb. 18—might sway expectations for consumer demand and rate cuts. 9
