BOGOTA, March 6, 2026, 09:33 (COT)
Ecopetrol could revisit its 2026 investment plan as early as April if elevated oil prices persist. The Colombian state oil giant is also pushing to secure access for deals in Venezuela. For now, executives see spending coming in toward the upper end of the 22 trillion to 27 trillion peso ($5.79 billion-$7.11 billion) guidance.
Timing’s key here. Brent’s surged roughly 24% this week to near $90 a barrel, after the Iran conflict threw off shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s the sort of price spike that can upend cash flow forecasts for an oil producer working off a budget set last November.
This has direct implications for Colombia. Ecopetrol reported COP 34.6 trillion in contributions to the country via dividends, taxes, and royalties in 2025, so any movement in oil prices, capital flows, or distributions hits government finances straight on.
Numbers out of Ecopetrol landed unevenly. Net income for 2025 came in at COP 9.0 trillion, down sharply by 39.5%. EBITDA slid 13.8% to COP 46.7 trillion. Brent crude averaged $68 per barrel, a clear step down from $80 in 2024. Full-year sales slipped too, dropping 10.2% to COP 119.7 trillion.
Still, output didn’t slip. Production reached 745,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day—right on target. Proven reserves climbed 2.7% to 1.944 billion barrels. Ecopetrol managed to replace 121% of last year’s production, which extends reserve life to 7.8 years.
Chief Executive Ricardo Roa said Ecopetrol maintained “operational strength and financial discipline” during a “challenging environment” in 2025. The board is putting forward an ordinary dividend of COP 110 per share—representing a 50.1% payout of net income—and is also setting aside a COP 21.1 trillion reserve to safeguard financial sustainability. Ecopetrol Files
Investors will cast their votes on March 27, and—assuming the payout gets the green light—funds could hit accounts by April 30. Ecopetrol jumped over 7% in Bogota on Thursday, with the ADRs in New York gaining almost 7% as well.
During the call with investors, Roa said he’d once more reached out to OFAC, the U.S. Treasury’s sanctions arm, pushing for an easing of constraints on negotiations with Venezuela. Finance chief Camilo Barco said additional borrowing tied to acquisitions would need to maintain a “controlled leverage ratio.” Reuters
Ecopetrol isn’t the only one eyeing Venezuela. Shell inked new oil and gas deals with the country on Thursday. Exxon, for its part, announced plans this week to dispatch a technical team in the coming weeks—provided the investment climate is favorable. Foreign players are wasting little time stepping in as Caracas looks for fresh capital.
Still, there’s a catch. Oil’s rally may sputter out before April should the conflict cool off, while any steps from Venezuela hinge on green lights from Washington. Ecopetrol’s 2025 numbers made the point: sales and profit took a hit from weaker crude and a softer peso, despite production holding roughly flat.
The company is sticking with its 2026 plan framework for now, just favoring the upper range. What’s next? First up, the shareholder vote on March 27. Then, an April review, provided crude prices stay elevated, as management previously indicated.
