NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 3:45 p.m. ET — Market Closed (Weekend)
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) heads into the final full trading week of 2025 with U.S. markets shut for the weekend and investors weighing a familiar mix: year-end positioning, macro headlines, and whether big-tech momentum can extend into the first week of 2026. For Shopify stock specifically, the next session (Monday, Dec. 29) arrives after a quiet, thinly traded post-holiday market that has kept major U.S. indexes near record territory—supportive for high-multiple growth names, but also vulnerable to sudden sentiment shifts in low-liquidity tape. [1]
Shopify stock price check: where SHOP stands heading into Monday
Shopify shares last closed at $170.83 on Friday (Dec. 26), up 0.81% on the day, with $171.07 as the intraday high and $168.10 as the intraday low, according to the company’s investor relations stock quote page. Shopify lists in the U.S. under NASDAQ: SHOP and in Canada under TSX: SHOP. [2]
Key reference points investors are watching into the next session:
- 52-week range:$69.84 to $182.19 (SHOP is trading below the 52-week high, leaving a visible overhead level near the low-$180s). [3]
- Near-term range: Friday’s $168–$171 zone sets immediate support/resistance for short-term traders watching Monday’s open and the first 30–60 minutes of volume. [4]
The broader tape: why market tone matters for Shopify into year-end
Friday’s session was a “catch your breath” day for equities after a strong run. Reuters reported the major U.S. indexes finished only slightly lower in light-volume post-Christmas trading, though they still logged weekly gains. [5]
That matters for Shopify because SHOP often trades as a sentiment-sensitive growth stock: when markets are calm and risk appetite is strong, investors tend to tolerate premium valuations; when rates or macro uncertainty spike, richly valued software and internet names can see outsized moves.
Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick told Reuters the market was “simply catching our breath” after a strong rally, while also pointing to the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window that runs through early January. [6]
The last 24–48 hours: what’s new in coverage and why it’s relevant to SHOP
While there have been no major weekend corporate announcements from Shopify, coverage over the past day has focused on two key themes relevant to SHOP shareholders:
1) Year-end macro calendar and thin trading conditions
Investopedia flagged a holiday-shortened week ahead, with a New Year’s Day market closure and key macro items including pending home sales (Monday), FOMC minutes (Tuesday), and weekly jobless claims (Wednesday)—all arriving during typically thinner year-end liquidity. [7]
2) Shopify’s AI roadmap remains a central “story stock” driver
Recent analysis pieces continue to frame Shopify’s growth narrative around AI-driven merchant tools, international expansion, and enterprise adoption. A Nasdaq.com column published Sunday highlighted Shopify’s push around AI tooling and referenced Winter 2026 product updates as a noteworthy strategic direction for the platform. [8]
Fundamentals recap: what investors still anchor to after Shopify’s latest results
Even as the tape turns to year-end trading, Shopify investors continue to anchor on a few fundamental datapoints:
- Holiday-quarter expectations: Reuters previously reported Shopify forecast mid-to-high-twenties percentage revenue growth for the fourth quarter, above analysts’ average estimate at the time (LSEG-compiled), while also noting Shopify’s strength in Europe and that roughly half of GMV dollar growth in the quarter came from international markets. [9]
- Black Friday–Cyber Monday: Shopify said merchants achieved a record $14.6 billion in global Black Friday–Cyber Monday sales, up 27% from the prior year (24% on a constant-currency basis), with shopping peaking at $5.1 million per minute at 12:01 p.m. ET on Black Friday. [10]
AI catalysts: “Agentic storefronts” and Winter ’26 product upgrades
Shopify’s current narrative is increasingly intertwined with “agentic commerce”—selling not only through a merchant’s website and marketplaces, but also inside AI-driven discovery and chat experiences.
In its Winter ’26 product cycle, Shopify introduced Shopify Agentic Storefronts, designed to help brands get discovered and transact in AI experiences such as ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot, while keeping Shopify Checkout as the underlying transaction layer and preserving the merchant-of-record relationship. [11]
Two executive comments stand out for investors evaluating Shopify’s AI strategy:
- Vanessa Lee, VP of Product at Shopify, said: “AI gives us all a new tool to build experiences that weren’t possible before.” [12]
- Tobi Lütke, Shopify CEO, said: “We’re making every Shopify store agent-ready by default.” [13]
Meanwhile, Shopify’s broader Winter ’26 Edition announcement emphasized 150+ launches and enhancements centered on AI, including updates to its assistant Sidekick (positioned as evolving from reactive assistant to proactive collaborator) and other merchant automation features. [14]
For SHOP stock, these product announcements matter less as “one-day news” and more as an ongoing thesis driver: investors are betting Shopify can (1) defend merchant relationships, (2) maintain checkout dominance within its ecosystem, and (3) monetize new AI distribution channels without ceding the customer relationship.
Wall Street targets and forecasts: what analysts are implying for SHOP
Analyst outlooks remain mixed—often a sign of a stock where growth optimism is balanced by valuation discipline.
MarketBeat’s consolidated view (based on 45 analyst ratings in the past 12 months) shows:
- Consensus rating:Hold
- Average 12-month price target:$168.69 (about -1.25% downside versus $170.83 at the time shown)
- High target:$200
- Low target:$100 [15]
MarketBeat also lists several late-2025 target changes from major firms (examples include Wells Fargo’s Jeff Cantwell raising an Overweight target substantially on Dec. 17, and Bank of America boosting its target on the same date). [16]
Separately, an Investing.com report from November noted Truist Securities raised its price target to $155 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing valuation and macro uncertainty as constraints—even while pointing to strong GMV and international growth and Shopify’s emphasis on agentic commerce. [17]
And a Morgan Stanley update (as reported by GuruFocus) cited analyst Keith Weiss maintaining Overweight while raising a price target to $192, reflecting a more constructive stance on Shopify’s long-term opportunity set. [18]
How to read these targets: Taken together, the target spread is wide—typical for high-growth platforms—implying that the debate isn’t whether Shopify is executing, but how much investors should pay for that execution in a market where rates, risk appetite, and liquidity conditions can shift quickly.
Valuation and positioning: the “paying up” debate is still the swing factor
Much of the SHOP discussion turns on valuation. StockStory’s research note updated late Saturday described Shopify as a high-quality business but explicitly flagged premium pricing, citing a valuation around 16.6x forward price-to-sales (by its framework) while arguing the multiple can be justified by business quality and growth profile. [19]
Whether investors agree often depends on two near-term questions:
- Can Shopify sustain mid-20s revenue growth without re-accelerating costs?
- Do new AI commerce surfaces (chat-based discovery and conversion) expand Shopify’s “take” opportunity—or simply shift traffic and marketing economics?
What investors should know before the next session
With markets closed today and Monday’s open approaching, here are the most actionable watch items for Shopify stock:
Watch the macro calendar in thin liquidity
Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar highlights pending home sales (Monday), FOMC minutes (Tuesday), and jobless claims (Wednesday) as potential volatility catalysts—especially given year-end trading conditions. [20]
Track the “risk-on” signal from index behavior
If broad indexes remain supported near highs, that typically helps growth names like SHOP. Reuters’ Ryan Detrick also warned that volatility is the “toll” investors pay for multi-year gains—an important reminder with 2026 around the corner. [21]
Keep an eye on the key price levels
Based on Friday’s range and the 52-week data on Shopify’s IR page, traders are likely to watch:
- Support zone: around $168 (recent intraday low area)
- Resistance zone: around $171 (recent intraday high area)
- Bigger ceiling: the $182 region (52-week high) [22]
Re-check the thesis: AI distribution vs. merchant economics
Shopify’s December product messaging is clear: it wants merchants to be “agent-ready” and transact seamlessly in AI conversations while keeping Shopify Checkout and merchant-owned relationships at the center. For SHOP investors, the next big question is how quickly these tools translate into measurable GMV, conversion, and take-rate benefits. [23]
This article is for informational purposes and reflects publicly available reporting and company statements. It is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. shopifyinvestors.com, 3. shopifyinvestors.com, 4. shopifyinvestors.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. shopifyinvestors.com, 11. www.shopify.com, 12. www.shopify.com, 13. www.shopify.com, 14. www.shopify.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.gurufocus.com, 19. stockstory.org, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. shopifyinvestors.com, 23. www.shopify.com
